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題名：中國紡織業的產業政策、聚集及其生產力
作者：李曉雲
作者(外文)：Hsiao-Yun Li
校院名稱：臺灣大學
系所名稱：經濟學研究所
指導教授：林惠玲
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2011
主題關鍵詞：紡織業；產業政策；聚集；創新；生產力；中國；Textile Industry；Industrial Policy；Agglomeration；Innovation；Productivity；China
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紡織工業在一國的工業與經濟發展中，扮演極重要的角色，其中棉紡織業是紡織業中最重要的產業，因此本研究先針對中國產業政策對棉紡織業的發展進行分析。在第二章中，本研究以中國1949-1990年的產業政策對棉紡織業的影響作初步分析，將中國1949-1978年和1979-1990年這二段時間的產業政策分為體制改革、人才培育、投資策略、技術等四方面，並針對1949~1978年和1979~1990年間的產業政策作比較，以清楚看出中國在計劃經濟和市場經濟下，產業政策的差異。另外，本文亦與台灣的產業政策作簡略的比較，藉以看出在同時期之下，中國實施計劃經濟對產業發展的影響。
在第三章中，中國於計劃經濟時期實施統購統銷和重重工業輕輕工業等政策，本文將以1952-1982年的棉紡織業為主要探討對象，希望能深入了解其影響所及。依據Kumbhakar, Lien, Flaten and Tveteras (2008)的模型設定作修改說明棉紗和棉布的生產力、生產技術和環境因素的影響，並進一步計算其真實相對價格，所得結論主要有四：(1) 在產出方面，棉布生產是受到壓抑，造成棉布本身有勞動產能過剩的問題；(2) 在技術進步方面，棉紡織業技術有在進步，但進步幅度並不大；(3)在成長方面，這時期的棉紗和棉布成長率皆為正，和 Jefferson and Rawski (1988)的研究結果相符；(4) 在相對價格方面，政府的產業政策確實造成產品價格受到扭曲，因而無法反應其有效資源配置。
除了對中國產業政策對紡織業發展的影響進行討論外，我們亦由紡織業發展中發現聚集在紡織業發展中扮演不可缺的角色。在第四章中，本文想了解到底中國紡織產業是否真有不斷聚集的情況，聚集是否會促使廠商生產力提升，根據2000~2005年中國國家統計局每年進行的｢中大型企業調查｣資料進行分析，並利用EG指數作為衡量產業聚集程度的依據，針對這些問題進行探討。實證結果發現，聚集和生產力呈現倒U字型的關係，以紡織業來說，聚集對生產力有正向的影響，但這正向的影響力會隨著聚集程度增加而遞減。另外，本研究亦發現EG指數和就業人數交叉項顯著為負，即位於同樣聚集地區中，小廠在聚集中受外溢效果影響較大廠高。
中國的紡織業大多給人代工的印象，但是否代表他們就沒有進行創新活動呢? 設廠於創新活動較活躍的地區，對廠商的生產力有何影響呢?這些問題都是本研究於第五章中想探討的，同樣依據2005-2007年中國國家統計局每年進行的｢中大型企業調查｣資料進行分析，除了改以較精確的方法計算勞動生產力和總要素生產力外，並處理聚集和生產力可能的內生性問題。結果發現產業聚集對生產力仍舊有正向影響外，在研發(Research and Development, R&D)活動較活躍的地區生產，對廠商生產力也有正向影響，且由於紡織業的R&D投入不足，因此隨著R&D活動活躍程度增加，生產力呈現遞增狀態，這說明政府若能採取適當措施獎勵廠商創新或促進廠商產學合作，對廠商的生產力而言是有很大助益的。
The textile industry is an industry that many countries have chosen to foster at the beginning of their industrial development since the textile industry plays an extremely important role in the industrial and economic development of a country, and the cotton textile industry is the most important textile industry. Therefore, this study analyzes how the China''s industrial policies to affect the development of the cotton textile industry at first. First of all, using historical data, this article will examine Chinese industrial policies of the cotton textile industry adopted during 1949-1990 from four angles: institutional reform, the development and education of talent, investment strategy, and technology. It will then compare the Chinese data with the Taiwanese data for the same period, as well as compare the industrial policies implemented during 1949-1978 with those adopted during 1949-1990. This latter comparison will enable us to more clearly see how Chinese industrial policies under a planned economy differ from those under a market economy.
In Chapter 3, we study the extent to which prices were distorted under the plan, using China’s cotton textile industry in 1952-82 as an example. We derive the shadow price of cotton fabric relative to cotton yarn from a distance function and find it to be less than one-tenth of the international price prevailing at the time. This suggests that the production of consumer goods, such as cotton fabric, was severely suppressed in favor of industrial goods, such as cotton yarn, during the plan economy period. However, despite the distortion in terms of quantity of production, the cotton textile sector has experienced respectable technical progress during the period.
From above, we demonstrate that China''s industrial policy has impact on the textile industry, and find the agglomeration seems play an essential role for the development of textile industry. We want to know the spatial concentration of manufacturing activity is able to enhance firm-level productivity in the next chapter. Using a panel dataset of Chinese textile firms from 2000 to 2005, this paper aims to examine the dynamics of industrial agglomeration and the impact of agglomeration on firm-level productivity in China’s textile industry. First, the Ellison-Glaeser (EG) measure of spatial concentration is calculated for each year to examine the dynamics of agglomeration and a slightly decreasing trend of spatial agglomeration is found within the textile industry in China. Secondly, we use productivity regression analysis and find that industrial agglomeration has a positive but nonlinear relationship with the firms’ productivity. Interestingly, the coefficient of the interaction term between the EG index and firm size is significantly negative, implying that a small firm tends to benefit more from the positive externalities of industrial agglomeration.
China''s textile industry always plays an OEM export role, but does it mean they don’t have innovative activities. Do firms located in more innovative areas have higher productivity in China? This paper, in chapter 5, aims to examine the impact of industrial agglomeration and R&D agglomeration on firm-level productivity in China’s textile industry using a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) enterprise data set covering the period from 2005 to 2007 that contains the innovation data. First, we find that the distribution of spatial agglomeration within the textile industry is relatively concentrated and appears to exhibit an increasing trend. However, the spatial R&D agglomeration within the textile industry exhibits a decreasing trend due to there not being enough Research and Development (R&D) in the Chinese textile industry. Second, firms located in East China appear to exhibit a stronger positive externality effect, thus inducing stronger productivity-enhancing effects on firms located in those regions. This suggests that the government should actively engage in R&D in China because R&D can enhance productivity in such a way that it does not decrease.
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