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題名:總體經濟影響中國大陸房地產市場之動態研究
作者:游士儀
作者(外文):You, Shih Yi
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
指導教授:林祖嘉
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2015
主題關鍵詞:中國大陸房地產市場景氣循環馬可夫移轉模型縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型Real Estate Market of ChinaBusiness CycleMarkov Switching ModelPanel Smooth Transition Model
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房地產景氣波動是一動態的過程,如何在有效的樣本資料下,準確地認定中國大陸房地產景氣循環轉折點,並正確估計總體經濟變數對房地產景氣波動的影響,將有助於提供相關住宅政策建議。過去雖然已經有相當多文獻針對中國大陸的房地產市場進行深入的探討,然而多數文獻忽略了總體經濟變數對於房地產市場的非對稱性效果。因此本論文將利用馬可夫轉換模型,以及縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型,探討總體經濟變數對中國大陸房地產市場存在的非對稱的效果,並同時對其房地產景氣循還進行估算。
The dynamic nature of real estate market in China has post specific challenges in exploring the relationship between macroeconomic variables and housing cycle as well as the determination of its turning point. There are large number of literature shed light on the relationship between housing price and economic fundamental factors. Most of the existing works however rarely invoked in possible that economy might have different impacts in different phase of housing cycle. Additionally, the structure and dynamics of the China’s housing market are less investigated.
The main purpose of this thesis is to study the non-linear relationship between housing price and some basic fundamentals by adopting the Markov switching model and the panel smooth transition model. Our analysis confirms the significance of the nonlinear relationship between the housing price and economic fundamental factors in China’s real estate market.
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