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題名:房價指數編製方法之研究
作者:林進益
作者(外文):Ching-Yi Lin
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:建築及都市設計學系
指導教授:林元興
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2012
主題關鍵詞:房地產市場房地產房價指數real estate marketreal propertyhousing price index
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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房地產對於整體國家或家庭而言均非常重要,國內房地產市場價格未能合理達到民眾期待,因此如能提供參考的正確房價資訊,讓民眾獲知真實的房價,就可使民眾有所遵從,例如由公部門提供正確的房價指數,則可使民眾有所依循。
另因房地產市場房價資訊缺乏,易使業界盲目擴充,致資源利用缺乏效率,因此政府應提供忠實的房地產房價資訊。國內發布有系統房地產市場房價資訊約有10種,其中4種由政府機構負責,而另外6種由民間機構發布,由政府機構負責包括建研所編製之房地產景氣動向外、營建署之住宅需求動向與住宅房價資訊統計季報以及地政司的都市地價指數,而由民間機構發布者包括國泰建設的房地產價格指數、住展雜誌房地產風向球、信義房價指數、中信房屋宅指數、台灣房屋的房價指數及永慶房價指數等6種,皆有所偏。
本文蒐集日、美及英等國,共44種房地產市場房價資訊,發現先進國家對房地產市場房價資訊的提供至為努力,有的國家亦從私密市場(或稱封閉市場)逐漸轉變為公開市場,市場透明化的結果使得資源利用較具有效率。房地產房價資訊雖可由公私部門分別提供,惟擔心私部門的提供別有用心。
觀察房地產市場景氣,可採直接觀察法與間接觀察法,本文發現僅有少數房地產市場房價資訊係採間接觀察法,如我國建研所之房地產景氣動向。直接觀察法皆採編製房地產指數的方式,編製房地產指數可採簡單平均法、重複交易法、特徵交易法與機率分配法,此須考慮各國的資料多寡,經費的寬緊的實際情形而定。
房地產市場房價資訊,應具有正確反應景氣變動,能劃分為不同的次市場,以及容易執行與計算等優點,故本文以我國臺北市為案例編製「房價指數」,證明此簡易方式可求得房價之漲跌趨勢。並建議可考慮編製「建築用地價格指數」,期與營建署未來所擬編製的「房價指數」以及「住宅需求動向」互相配合。
Real estate is very important to both private and public sector. Due to inadequate information, however, there is always chaos in the real estate market. For example, home buyer who does not know the real housing price may buy his (her) house on higher price. On the other hand, builder who does not know business cycles may over expand his business and causes loss.
In order to improve allocation efficiency of real estate market, this thesis starts to collect domestic and foreign data. We find there are 10 kinds of real estate price publications in this country. In addition, there are 44 kinds of real estate price publications around the world.
After detail analysis, we suggest to publish periodically the Price Index of Urban Land in order to provide adequate information. We hope this Index will enhance allocation efficiency of real estate market.
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