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題名:軟體廠商價格競爭與勞動實質薪資 之實證研究
作者:鄭貴元
作者(外文):CHENG,KUEI-YUAN
校院名稱:中華大學
系所名稱:科技管理博士學位學程
指導教授:李堯賢
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2017
主題關鍵詞:雲端服務廠商封包軟體商線性迴歸模型曲線線性化迴歸模型實質薪資型菲利普曲線Cloud service firmShrink-wrap software firmLinear regressive modelCurve-linear regressive modelsReal wage-Phillips curve
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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摘 要
本文考量隨機化M/M/1排列和特定參數建立一個真實價格競爭的隨機模型。本文模擬並證明最適價格具均勻分配。關於最適產出,封包軟體業的產出是小而穩定。相較之下,雲端服務業的凹形產出分配,涵蓋了一半的消費者的分配假設。本文模擬出的利潤顯示,雲端服務廠商會比封包軟體廠商獲得更高的利潤並面臨更高的風險。本文實證結果發現,較少消費者購買封包裝軟體,而大多數消費者購買具有較高彈性的雲端服務。另,消費者的負向體驗效果會影響廠商的利潤水準,因此雲端服務廠商的行銷策略必須審慎建立,以提高消費者的滿意程度。
再者,本文探究台灣實質薪資型菲利普曲線可否顯示台灣經濟與勞動市場會受到出口導向因素(例如與中國之貿易)與貨幣數量政策的影響效果。本文以逐步線性迴歸模型與曲線線性化模型估計實質薪資型菲利普曲線,由於後者可估計至12次方與17次方的泰勒展開式而具有更多的可解釋力,因此實證支持台灣勞動力市場之實質薪資成長率會受到出口導向因素和貨幣數量政策的顯著影響。與我們熟悉的傳統菲利普曲線和線性迴歸模型的結果相反,曲線化迴歸模型的估計迴歸曲線是更為準確,且有較高的解釋力和較少的MSE,也顯示台灣實質薪資,甚至名目薪資成長率下降的事實。
ABSTRACT
This study allowing for the randomization of the M/M/1 queue and parameters creates a real stochastic and dynamic model of price competition. We simulate and demonstrate that optimal prices have a uniform distribution. With regard to the optimal outputs, the output for a shrink-wrap software firm is almost narrowed to a specific value. Conversely, a concave shape of the output distribution for a cloud service firm shows a half range of the distributed assumption of consumers. The simulated profits allow us to provide evidence that the cloud service firm might earn higher profits and face higher risks than the shrink-wrap software firm. Our results also demonstrate that customers buy shrink-wrap software for special use, whereas their purchases of cloud services are more elastic. These results imply that the cloud service firm can implement marketing strategies to efficiently earn profits.
The study also investigates Taiwan real wage-Phillips curve at two different directions where Taiwan economy and labor market may be deeply affected by the export-orientated factors such as trades with China and money quantity supply policy. The growth rates of Taiwan real wages are estimated by the stepwise-linear and curve-linear regressive models where the Taylor series expansion in the curve-linear model can be expanded to 12th and 17th-order respectively and have more explainable power. The results are contrary to the facts that we are familiar with from the traditional Phillips curve and from the linear regressive model. The estimated regressive curve in the curve-linear model is a more accurate, explainable and less MSE diagram where the curve indicates that the facts of the decreasing growth rates of Taiwan real wages, even the nominal wages.
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