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題名：營運資金與景氣循環和企業流動性之相關聯研究–以台灣塑膠產業為範例
作者：李穎
作者(外文)：LEE, YIN
校院名稱：東吳大學
系所名稱：會計學系
指導教授：柯瓊鳳
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2019
主題關鍵詞：營運資金；景氣循環；企業流動性；償債能力；塑膠產業；working capital；economic cycle；corporate liquidity；solvency；plastics industry
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企業是否能繼續經營是企業方與投資人最重視的議題之一，在影響企業存續的相關因素中，營運資金的持有扮演相當重要的腳色；然而，影響企業決定保持多少營運金資水位之因子眾多，本研究欲探討景氣、企業流動性相關因素與企業營運資金持有水位之關聯。研究中以台灣塑膠產業2003年~2018年之季財務報表為樣本，探討前述兩者與企業營運資金持有之關聯性。
本研究結果發現，景氣相關變數中之景氣對策綜合循環信號燈與企業之營運資金持有在下游塑膠產業樣本中呈現正向關係；在上游塑膠產業中，景氣對策綜合循環信號燈因為是綜合指數而和應變數無顯著關係；然而，製造業銷貨量指數和企業之營運資金持有在上游塑膠產業中呈現顯著關係，在下游塑膠產業樣本中則無顯著關係，上述現象推測導因於上游與下游塑膠產業之營業特性不同所致。另外，企業流動性相關變數之流動比率在塑膠產業上、中、下游中皆呈正向顯著關係；短期資金償債能力則是在上、中、下游樣本中呈現負向顯著關係，本研究推測導因於，當企業得知自身無因即將到期之短期負債而面臨營運風險的情況下，傾向投入更多資金投資，以爭取更多獲利機會。
Whether companies are going concern is one of the managements and investors most caring about. Working capital reserves are an important role in deciding if companies are going concern. However, working capital reserves are affected by many factors, so I would like to examine the association between economic cycle, corporate liquidity, and working capital reserves. In this paper, I use financial statements of plastics industry companies in Taiwan from 2003 to 2018 to measure economic cycle and liquidity of companies.
This paper shows the following results. First, during the variables of economic cycle, economy flashes indicator is positively related with working capital reserves in lower stream of plastics industry companies, but economy flashes indicator is not significantly related with working capital reserves in upper stream of plastics industry companies because economy flashes indicator is a composite index. In addition, index of producer's shipment for manufacturing is significantly related with working capital reserves in upper stream of plastics industry companies but not significantly related with working capital reserves in lower stream of plastics industry companies, it may be due to the different operating characteristics in upper stream and lower stream. Finally, during the variables of corporate liquidity, current ratio and short-term solvency are respectively positively and negatively related with working capital holding in upper, middle, and lower stream of plastics industry companies. It suggests that when companies think that they aren’t facing risk of going concern due to no impending current liabilities, then they would invest more, so as to seize more profitable opportunities.
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