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題名:顏色革命的許諾與侷限
書刊名:臺灣民主季刊
作者:吳玉山 引用關係
作者(外文):Wu, Yu-shan
出版日期:2007
卷期:4:2
頁次:頁67-112
主題關鍵詞:顏色革命烏克蘭喬治亞吉爾吉斯民主鞏固Color revolutionUkraineGeorgiaKyrgyzstanDemocratic consolidation
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(21) 博士論文(2) 專書(1) 專書論文(1)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:20
  • 共同引用共同引用:24
  • 點閱點閱:42
在前蘇聯的三個共和國—喬治亞、烏克蘭與吉爾吉斯所相繼發生的「顏色革命」被許多人期待可以創造新一波的民主浪潮,把歐亞大陸上一些部分民主的國家帶入真實的民主境地。然而在仔細地觀察了實際發生的例子之後,本文發現顏色革命雖有許諾、更有侷限。這主要表現在三個方面:第一,顏色革命所發生的國家在獨立國協當中都是已經有了若干民主進展的競爭性威權體制國家。顏色革命在此的意義是完善民主體制,而不是徹底改變舊制度的真正革命。第二,革命後的新執政菁英許多是來自於舊政權,他們多是在舊政權當中無法獲得所企盼的利益或施展的機會,因而投身於反對陣營。統治菁英的延續性也斲傷了顏色革命的徹底性。第三,在顏色革命後所建立的新秩序和嚴謹的民主制度仍然有若干的距離,因此顏色革命的成就是有限的。雖然三個顏色革命都有類似的侷限性,不過它們在民主深化的可能性上,卻彼此互有差異,而是由其地理區位所決定。
It is widely expected that the “color revolutions” that happened in the post-Soviet countries of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have the potential to launch a new wave of democratization and bring about true democracy in Eurasia. However, one finds limitations to those promises. Firstly, all color revolutions occurred in competitive authoritarian systems where democratic rules had been laid down and regular elections conducted. This means the color revolutions were not genuine revolutions, but rather political changes that perfected existing democratic institutions. Secondly, the new ruling elite were mainly from the old regime. Their defection had more to do with frustrated ambition than political idealism. The continuation of the ruling elite further dampens the revolutionary nature of the three political changes. Thirdly, the new political order is still a far cry from consolidated democracy. Although the above limitations are present in all the three cases of color revolutions, the prospects of democratic deepening vary among them, hinging on their geopolitical positions.
期刊論文
1.McFaul, Michael(200507)。Transitions from Postcommunism。Journal of Democracy,16(3),5-19。  new window
2.Fairbanks, Charles H. Jr.(2004)。Georgia's Rose Revolution。Journal of Democracy,15(2),110-124。  new window
3.Mitchell, Lincoln(2004)。Georgia's Rose Revolution。Current History,103(675),342-348。  new window
4.Matsuzato, Kimitaka(2006)。Differing Dynamics of Semipresidentialism across Euro/Eurasian Borders: Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, and Armenia。Demokratizatsiya,14(3),317-345。  new window
5.Mallaby, Sebastian(2002)。The Reluctant Imperialist: Terrorism, Failed States, and the Case for American Empire。Foreign Affairs,81(2),2-7。  new window
6.吳玉山(19970200)。抗衡或扈從:面對強鄰時的策略抉擇。問題與研究,36(2),1-32。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.洪美蘭(2000)。後共產主義時代烏克蘭之經濟轉型。美歐季刊,14(4),503-530。  延伸查詢new window
8.洪茂雄(1996)。歐洲理事會擴大組織的背景與意義。美歐月刊,11(8)。  延伸查詢new window
9.Wertsch, James V.(2005)。Georgia as a Laboratory for Democracy。Demokratizatsiya,13(4),519-535。  new window
10.Khamidov, Alisher(2006)。Kyrgyzstan's Revolutionary Youth: Between State and Opposition。SAIS Review,26(2),85-93。  new window
11.Tabyshalieva, Anara(2005)。Kyrgyzstan's Tenuous Hold on Democracy。Far Eastern Economic Review,168(4),26-29。  new window
12.Huskey, Eugene(2005)。Kyrgyzstan's Tulip Revolution: Interview with Roza Otunbayeva。Demokratizatsiya,13(4),483-489。  new window
13.Mallaby, Sebastian(2004)。Liberal Imperialism, R.I.P。Foreign Affairs。  new window
14.Hale, Henry E.(2005)。Regime Cycles: Democracy, Autocracy, and Revolution in Post-Soviet Eurasia。World Politics,58(1),133-165。  new window
15.Saakashvili, Mikheil(2006)。The Way Forward: Georgia's Democratic Vision for the Future。Harvard International Review,28(1),68-73。  new window
16.Fairbanks, Charles H., Jr.(2007)。Revolution Reconsidered。Journal of Democracy,18(1),42-57。  new window
17.Katz, Mark N.(2006)。Revolutionary Change in Central Asia。World Affairs,168(4),157-171。  new window
18.Schwartz, Stephen(2005)。The Kyrgyz Take Their Stan: A Democratic Revolution in Central Asia?。The Weekly Standard,10(28),12-14。  new window
19.Kuzio, Taras(2006)。The Orange Revolution at the Crossroads。Demokratizatsiya,14(4),477-493。  new window
20.Kuzio, Taras(2006)。Ukraine Is Not Russia: Comparing Youth Political Activism。SAIS Review,26(2),67-83。  new window
21.Osipian, Ararat L.、Osipian, Alexandr L.、Osipian, Alexander L.(2006)。Why Donbass Votes for Yanukovych: Confronting the Ukrainian Orange Revolution。Demokratizatsiya,14(4),495-517。  new window
會議論文
1.吳志光(2005)。新興民主國家憲改經驗借鏡-以東歐民主轉型國家的人權保障機制為例。0。  延伸查詢new window
2.Kukeyeva, Fatima(2005)。Color Revolutions in the Central Asia and the US Position。0。new window  new window
圖書
1.行政院新聞局(1994)。寧靜革命。臺北:行政院新聞局。  延伸查詢new window
2.吳玉山(1997)。抗衡或扈從:兩岸關係新詮--從前蘇聯看臺灣與中國大陸間的關係。臺北:正中書局。  延伸查詢new window
3.Gilbert, Martin(1993)。Atlas of Russian History。Atlas of Russian History。New York, NY。  new window
4.Economist Intelligence Unit(1996)。EIU Country Report: Russia, 1st Quarter 1996。EIU Country Report: Russia, 1st Quarter 1996。London, UK。  new window
5.McFaul, Michael(2006)。Conclusion: The Orange Revolution in a Comparative Perspective。Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough。Washington, DC。  new window
6.Kuzio, Taras(2006)。Everyday Ukrainians and the Orange Revolution。Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough。Washington, DC。  new window
7.Petrov, Nikolai、Ryabov, Andrei(2006)。Russia's Role in the Orange Revolution。Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough。Washington, DC。  new window
8.Karatnycky, Adrian(2006)。The Fall and Rise of Ukraine's Political Opposition: From Kuchmagate to the Orange Revolution。Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough。Washington, DC。  new window
其他
1.World Bank(2005)。World Developmental Indicators,Washington, DC。  new window
圖書論文
1.Prytula, Olena(2006)。The Ukrainian Media Rebellion。Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough。Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace。  new window
2.Sushko, Oleksandr、Prystayko, Olena(2006)。Western Influence。Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough。Washington, D.C.:Carnegie。  new window
 
 
 
 
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