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題名:利率期限結構變化與金融類股風險值之估計
書刊名:臺灣企業績效學刊
作者:周建新 引用關係于鴻福 引用關係張千雲 引用關係
作者(外文):Chou, Jian-hsinYu, Hong-fwuChang, Chien-yun
出版日期:2007
卷期:1:1
頁次:頁53-73
主題關鍵詞:利率期限結構極端值理論Nelson-Siegel模型Term structure of interest ratesExtreme value theoryNelson and Siegel model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:22
  • 點閱點閱:27
本文結合金融機構股票報酬率的時間序列與橫斷面資料,利用極端值理論,並以Nelson-Siegel模型的水平移動(β0)、斜率變化(β1)與曲度變化(β2)做爲利率因子的替代變數,探討利率因子變化對於金融類股風險值的影響程度。實證結果顯示利率因子與金融機構風險值間呈現負向關係,代表利率下降會導致金融機構的風險值增加。對於不同業務內容的金融機構,其風險值與利率變化的關聯性亦有所不同。而金控業由於其業務多元化可以分散風險,故能有效降低長短期利率變化對於其風險值的影響程度。
A time-series and cross-sectional combined data is employed to investigate the relationship between the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for stock returns of financial institutions and three interest rates factors based on Nelson-Siegel (1987) model. More precisely, we examine the impact of interest rate factors on the estimation of Value-at-Risk obtained from the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The empirical results indicate that it shows a negative relationship between the calculated VaRs and the interest rate factors. In addition, we conclude the outcome is quite different among different financial sector stocks. Since the financial holding companies could diversify their business risk, it can effectively reduce the impact of term structure movements on their VaR calculations.
期刊論文
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2.Bali, T. G.、Cakici, N.(2004)。Value at Risk and Expected Stock Returns。Financial Analysts Journal,60(2),57-73。  new window
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10.Nelson, C. R.、Siegel, A. F.(1987)。Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves。The Journal of Business,60(4),473-489。  new window
11.周建新、于鴻福、陳振宇(20060300)。臺灣政府公債市場遠期利率期限結構之估計--GCV與VRP模型之比較。商管科技季刊,7(1),103-127。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.周建新、于鴻福、張千雲(20030800)。利率期限結構估計模型之實證研究。管理學報,20(4),775-804。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Longin, Francois M.(2000)。From Value at Risk to Stress Testing: The Extreme Value Approach。Journal of Banking & Finance,24(7),1097-1130。  new window
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15.李桐豪(20010300)。債券市場發展對貨幣政策之影響。中央銀行季刊,23(1),23-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.Hendricks, Darryll(1996)。Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models Using Historical Data。Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review,2(1),39-69。  new window
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會議論文
1.Hurn, A. S.、Lindsay, K. A.、Pavlov, V.(2005)。Smooth estimation of yield curves by laguerre functions。Advances and Applications for Management and Decision Making on International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05)。Australia。1042-1048。  new window
研究報告
1.Diebold, F. X.、Rudebusch, G. D.、Aruoba, S. B.(2004)。The macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach。  new window
 
 
 
 
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