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題名:預算體制與政府跨期財政行為--臺灣的實證研究
書刊名:經濟論文
作者:林向愷 引用關係賴惠子
作者(外文):Lin, Kenneth S.Lai, Hui-zi
出版日期:2009
卷期:37:2
頁次:頁207-252
主題關鍵詞:預算體制財政長期平衡條件財政赤字現值模型Budgetary institutionsFiscal sustainabilityPresent value model of budget deficit
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(3) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:40
本文利用預算體制相關規範以及財政長期平衡條件導出「財政赤字」現值模型:「財政赤字」等於未來政府財政努力程度的現值,並證明「財政赤字」現值模型成立的充要條件。實證結果顯示1968-2004年期間台灣中央政府跨期財政行為支持「財政赤字」現值模型。雖然《公共債務法》對政府向外舉借與未償還債務餘額均有限制,但因果關係檢定結果顯示,中央政府仍依「量出為入」原則編製預算。 本文利用預算體制相關規範以及財政長期平衡條件導出「財政赤字」現值模型:「財政赤字」等於未來政府財政努力程度的現值,並證明「財政赤字」現值模型成立的充要條件。實證結果顯示1968-2004年期間台灣中央政府跨期財政行為支持「財政赤字」現值模型。雖然《公共債務法》對政府向外舉借與未償還債務餘額均有限制,但因果關係檢定結果顯示,中央政府仍依「量出為入」原則編製預算。
期刊論文
1.蘇彩足(19950900)。「量入為出」與「量出為入」:政府歲入與歲出之因果關係分析。人文及社會科學集刊,7(2),207-222。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Trehan, Bharat、Walsh, Carl E.。Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,23(2),206-223。  new window
3.Elliott, G.、Rothenberg, T. J.、Stock, J. H.(1996)。Efficient test for an autoregressive unit root。Econometrica,64(4),813-836。  new window
4.Campbell, John Y.(1993)。Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data。American Economic Review,83(3),487-512。  new window
5.Campbell, John Y.、Shiller, Robert J.(1987)。Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models。Journal of Political Economy,95(5),1062-1088。  new window
6.Hamilton, James D.、Flavin, Marjorie A.(1986)。On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing。The American Economic Review,76(4),808-819。  new window
7.McCallum, Bennett T.(1984)。Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis。Journal of Political Economy,92(1),123-135。  new window
8.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
9.Kwiatkowski, Denis、Phillips, Peter C. B.、Schmidt, Peter、Shin, Yongcheol(1992)。Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?。Journal of Econometrics,54(1-3),159-178。  new window
10.Phillips, Peter C. B.、Perron, Pierre(1988)。Testing for a unit root in time series regression。Biometrika,75(2),335-346。  new window
11.Newey, Whitney K.、West, Kenneth D.(1987)。A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix。Econometrica,55(3),703-708。  new window
12.Alesina, Alberto、Perotti, Roberto。Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process。The American Economic Review,86(2),401-407。  new window
13.Bohn, Henning。Are Stationarity and Cointegration Restrictions Really Necessary for the Intertemporal Budget Constraint?。Journal of Monetary Economics,54(7),1837-1847。  new window
14.Bohn, Henning、Inman, Robert P.。Balanced-budget Rules and Public Deficits: Evidence from the U.S. States。Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,45,13-76。  new window
15.Chang, Tsangyao、Liu, Wen Rong、Caudill, Steven B.。Tax-and-spend, Spend-and-tax, or Fiscal Synchronization: New Evidence for Ten Countries。Applied Economics,34(12),1553-1561。  new window
16.Huang, Chao-Hsi、Lin, Kenneth S.。An Empirical Study on Taiwan's Tax Policy: 1966-1988。Asian Economic Journal,5(3),323-338。  new window
17.Miller, Stephen M.、Russek, Frank S.。Co-integration and Error-correction Models: The Temporal Causality between Government Taxes and Spending。Southern Economic Journal,57(1),33-51。  new window
18.Ogaki, Masao。Unit Roots in Macroeconometrics: A Survey。BOJ Monetary and Economic Studies,11(2),131-154。  new window
19.Persson, Mats、Persson, Torsten、Svensson, Lars E. O.。Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy。Econometrica,55(6),1419-1431。  new window
20.Poterba, J.。Balanced Budget Rules and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the States。National Tax Journal,48(3),329-338。  new window
21.Roubini, Nouriel、Sachs, Jeffrey。Government Spending and Budget Deficits in the Industrial Countries。Economic Policy,4(8),99-132。  new window
22.Von Furstenberg, George M.、Green, R. Jeffery、Jeong, Jin-Ho。Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax?。The Review of Economics and Statistics,68(2),179-188。  new window
會議論文
1.蘇建榮(2005)。我國政府財政永續性之實證分析。第九屆經濟發展學術研討會,國立臺北大學社會科學院經濟系 (會議日期: 2005.05.21)。台北。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Polito, V.、Wickens, M.。Measuring Fiscal Stance。  new window
圖書
1.Sargent, T. J.(1987)。Macroeconomic theory。New York:Boston:Academic Press。  new window
2.文馨瑩(1990)。經濟奇蹟的背後--台灣美援經驗政治經濟分析 (1951-1969)。臺北:自立晚報。  延伸查詢new window
3.國史館。臺灣光復後美援史料。臺灣光復後美援史料。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
4.Heller, W. W.。New Dimensions of Political Economy。New Dimensions of Political Economy。New York, NY。  new window
其他
1.Bohn, H.。The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States。  new window
圖書論文
1.Hansen, L. P.、Sargent, T. J.、Roberds, W.(1991)。Time series implications of present value budget balance and of martingale models of consumption and taxes。Rational Expectations Econometrics。  new window
 
 
 
 
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