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題名:內生技術進步、學習效果與溫室氣體減量
書刊名:新竹教育大學人文社會學報
作者:林幸樺 引用關係蘇漢邦
作者(外文):Lin, Hsing-huaSu, Han-pang
出版日期:2009
卷期:2:2
頁次:頁65-99
主題關鍵詞:技術進步學習曲線可計算一般均衡模型二氧化碳減量成本Induced technical changeLearning-by-doingComputable general equilibrium modelCarbon dioxideAbatement cost
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:11
  • 點閱點閱:20
國外近期的研究顯示,在分析環境及能源相關議題時,有沒有及如何將內生技術進步與學習效果納入考量,是能否更精確衡量衝擊或政策效果的指標性因素(Goulder & Mathai, 2000; Kemfert,2005)。本文參考 Kypreos(2005)在MERGE模型中關於技術學習曲線之設計,在動態一般均衡分析模型中,將電力技術之學習效果藉由部門技術參數內生變動的處理方式,架構出一適合衡量我國溫室氣體減量經濟影響評估之總體模型,並以之重新審視依據2005年全國能源會議討論之「京都減量模式」對我國總體經濟、能源及環境等構面之影響。是為國內首見導入技術學習曲線之環境及能源議題模型模擬研究。 研究結果顯示,經由技術學習效果所創造的「擴張產能」、與「降低成本」效應,一方面使總體經濟的預測呈現較為合理的預測軌跡,同時,在減量政策的評估方面,亦能有效地避免高估碳稅與減量成本的情形。根據本文的模擬分析結果,我們得到與Goulder與Mathai(2000)、Kemfert(2005)及Kypreos(2005)等文獻相同的結論,再次印證在環境與能源政策中,納入技術學習效果考量之重要性。
Recent studies indicate that induced technical change and learning-by-doing effect are among the most important factors that need to be taken into account in energy and environmental policy analysis. Following Kypreos(2005), this paper reformulates a well-known dynamic CGE model by including in it a set of endogenous technical variables for the electricity-generating sector, which, in turn, are determined by cumulated output and cumulated R&D capital of that sector. The modified model is then used to simulate a set of policy scenarios that correspond to the greenhouse-gas emission mitigation strategies proposed at the 2005 National Energy Conference. Our simulation results show that taking into account the effect of induced technical change or learning-by-doing significantly lower the mitigation cost of meeting specific emission reduction targets. This result has important implications regarding the formulation of national greenhousegas policy, as an over-estimation of the emission reduction target will generate unnecessary negative impact on the economy.
期刊論文
1.Griliches, Z.(1979)。Issues in Assessing the Contribution of R&D to Productivity Growth。The Bell Journal of Economics,10,92-116。  new window
2.Kemfert, C.(2005)。Induced Technological Change in A Multi-Regional, Multi-Sectoral, Integrated Assessment Model (WIAGEM) Impact Assessment of Climate Policy Strategies。Ecological Economics,54,293-305。  new window
3.Goulder, Lawrence H.、Mathai, Koshy(2000)。Optimal CO2 Abatement in The Presence of Induced Technological Change。Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,39(1),1-38。  new window
4.Löschel, A.(2002)。Technological Change in Economic Models of Environmental Policy: A Survey。Ecological Economics,43(2/3),105-126。  new window
5.Buetre, B. L.、Ahmadi-Esfahani、Fredoun, Z.(2000)。Updating an input-output table for use in policy analysis。Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,44(4),573-603。  new window
6.Gorman, W.(1965)。Production functions in which the elasticities of substitution stand in fixed proportions to each other。Review of Economic Studies,32(3),217-224。  new window
7.Jaccard, M.、Murphy, R.、Rivers, N.(2004)。Energy-environment policy modeling of endogenous technological change with personal vehicles: Combining top-down and bottom-up methods。Ecological Economics,51,31-46。  new window
8.Mukerji, V.(1963)。A generalized S.M.A.C. function with constant ratios of elasticities of substitution。Review of Economic Studies,30(3),233-36。  new window
9.Armington, P. S.(1970)。Adjustment of trade balances: Some experiments with a model of trade among many countries。International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,17(3),488-526。  new window
10.Scherer, F. M.、Harhoff, D.、Kukies, J.(2000)。Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from technological innovation。Journal of Evolutionary Economics,10,175-200。  new window
11.楊子菡、蘇漢邦(20021200)。綠色租稅改革的租稅福利成本與結構效果。農業與經濟,29,29-54。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Armington, Paul S.(1969)。The Geographic Pattern of Trade and the Effects of Price changes。International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,16(1),176-199。  new window
13.Powell, Alan A.、Snape, Richard H.(1993)。The Contribution of Applied General Equilibrium Analysis to Policy Reform in Australia。Journal of Policy Modeling,15(4),393-414。  new window
14.Romer, Paul M.(1990)。Endogenous Technical Change。Journal of Political Economy,98(5),71-102。  new window
15.Hanoch, G.(1971)。CRESH Production Functions。Econometrica,39(5),695-712。  new window
16.Romer, Paul M.(1986)。Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth。Journal of Political Economy,94(5),1002-1037。  new window
17.Lucas, Robert E. Jr.(1988)。On the Mechanics of Economic Development。Journal of Monetary Economics,22(1),3-42。  new window
研究報告
1.Kverndokk, S.、Rosendahl, K. E.、Rutherford, T. F.(2000)。Climate Policies and Induced Technological Change: Which to Choose the Carrot or the Stick?。Boulder:University of Colorado。  new window
2.Kypreos, S.(2005)。A MERGE model with endogenous technological change and the cost of Carbon stabilization, Climate Change Modelling and Policy。  new window
3.Lopez, R. A.、Matschke, X.(2005)。Food protection for sale。University of Connecticut, Department of Economics。  new window
4.Hall, Bronwyn H.、Jaffe, Adam B.、Trajtenberg, Manuel(2000)。Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look。  new window
5.黃宗煌、李秉正、徐世勳、林師模、劉錦龍(1999)。溫室氣體減量成本效益分析--TAIGEM模型建構暨減量策略之經濟評估 (計畫編號:EPA-88-FA31-03-0006)。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Rogers, E.(1995)。The diffussion of innovation。New York:Free Press。  new window
2.Schumpeter, J. A.(1976)。Capitalism, socialism, and democracy。New York:Harper and Brothers。  new window
3.Dixon, P. B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Sutton, John、Vincent, D. P.(1982)。ORANI: A multisectoral model of the Australian economy。North-Holland。  new window
4.Rosenberg, N.(1982)。Inside the black box: Technology and economics。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。  new window
其他
1.Horridge, M.(2003)。ORANI-G: A generic single-country computable general equilibrium model,http:// www.monash.edu.au/policy/oranig.htm, 2003/06/23-27。  new window
2.Horridge, M.(2002)。ORANIGRD: A recursive dynamic version of ORANIG,http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/oranig.htm。  new window
圖書論文
1.Arrow, K. J.(1962)。Economic welfare and the allocation of resources for innovation。The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors。Princeton, NJ:Princeton Univer­sity Press。  new window
2.李秉正、徐世勳、黃宗煌、Lin, Hsing-Hua(2003)。Baseline Forecasting for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Taiwan: A Dynamic CGE Analysis。Global Warming and the Asian Pacific。Cheltenham:Edward Elgar。  new window
 
 
 
 
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