目的：探討台灣中草藥產業發展之動態結構，嘗試解釋台灣中草藥產業發展的系統行爲與趨勢，應用系統動態學方法論由產值之推估，找出政府與廠商可能的政策著力點，促使此產業能成功發展。 方法：系統動態學是一個研究及管理回饋系統的方法，強調對系統作一個整體且宏觀的考量，以深入思考整體系統的運作現象及其背後的本質。本研究透過專家訪談和文獻內容分析法，應用系統動態學(System Dynamics)方法論探索中草藥產業發展的結構和系統範圍內所有元素及元素間彼此交互作用關係，並藉由Vensim電腦軟體建構模型並進行模擬，顯現系統組成的結構、政策、延遲間的關係與整體系統的發展狀況。 結果：研究顯示中草藥產業發展受到數個之關鍵環路左右，主要受到廠商資產規模的大小、新產品研發人員數量、臨床研究設備、臨床實驗人力和中草藥專利件數等五個關鍵積量的相互作用，而形成一個動態複雜的系統模式。 結論：台灣中草藥產業發展是一個複雜動態的結構受到系統及環境的影響，例如：廠商研發經費、消費者需求量、政府政策和廠商家數變化等，而形成動態的系統結構，模擬結果顯示，當廠商研發經費由原來2.5%增加至10%時，以2015年爲例，對銷售值可增加約14.57%成長，而當消費者需求量由原來的4%增加至8%時，對銷售值的成長可增加近14.28%。同時中草藥產品的外銷值也明顯增加。

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to use system dynamics to probe into the industrial development structure of Chinese herbal medicine in order to explain its systematic behavior and estimate future production value. Methods: We used interviews with experts and a review of the literature about System Dynamics methodology to understand the reciprocity among all the elements in the industrial development of Chinese herbal medicine. We then built a model using Vensim computer software to show an environment characterized by multiple feedback processes, side effects, and time delays. Results: The interaction of five key elements, the size and scale of manufacturer's assets, the number of new persons involved in research and development of products, the investment in clinical research equipment, the manpower for clinical experimentation, and the ability to obtain patent numbers for Chinese herbal medicine, form a complicated and dynamic systematic model. Conclusions: This paper explores the Chinese herbal medicine industry's developmental structure and explains the mechanisms behind its systematic behavior. Computer simulation shows that an increase from 2.5% to 10% in a manufacturer's research and development fund would result in a 14.57% increase in products sales for Chinese herbal medicine by 2015.