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引文資料
題名:
擴大政府公共投資支出之經濟成長方案是否依然有效?我國新十大建設計畫的可計算一般均衡分析
書刊名:
臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者:
李秉正
/
張其祿
/
李慧琳
作者(外文):
Li, Ping-cheng
/
Jang, Chyi-lu
/
Lee, Huey-lin
出版日期:
2010
卷期:
40:2
頁次:
頁127-159
主題關鍵詞:
擴大政府公共投資支出
;
可計算一般均衡分析
;
新十大建設
;
Increased government investment spending
;
A computable general equilibrium analysis
;
The ten new construction projects
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
9
) 博士論文(0) 專書(
1
) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
9
共同引用:0
點閱:33
本研究建立臺灣可計算一般均衡模型 (computable general equilibrium, CGE, model) 來評估政府執行5年5,000 億新十大建設方案對臺灣經濟之帶動效果, 在模型中分別運用凱因斯封閉法與新古典封閉法來模擬計畫執行的短期衝擊與長期影響。研究結果顯示, 執行新十大建設方案短期內雖會帶動臺灣經濟成長, 但效果並不如預期顯著, 而其長期經濟影響則更小, 並會產生物價水準上漲的負面效應。另以乘數效果觀之, 執行該方案的投資與所得乘數皆不大。本研究同時印證了政府財政政策之效果係與一國經濟發展階段與公共投資支出內容密切相關, 而臺灣在經歷30多年的快速經濟成長之後, 應已趨近發展成熟的穩定狀態均衡(steady-state equilibrium), 因此擴大政府公共投資支出的效益不高, 其促進經濟成長的效果已經有限。
以文找文
In this research, we developed a Taiwan computable general equilibrium (CGE)model to evaluate the economic stimulation effects of the government led Ten New Construction Projects (TNCP) on the Taiwan economy. Both short run and long-run policy simulations were conducted in the model using Keynesian and neo classical closures. Our research findings suggest that TNCP helps Taiwan’s economic growth in the shortrun. Its effect, however, is not as large as expected. In the long run, TNCP contributes to small economic growth effects and leads to a significant increase in price levels. The investment multiplier and income multiplier effects of TNCP areboth insignificant in ourpolicy simulations. This research supports the proposition that the effectiveness of government fiscalpolicies depends on the stage of economic development of a state and the composition of government investment spending. After more than 30 years of fast economic development, Taiwan has now converged gradually to the steady-state equilibrium of a mature economy. The benefits of increased government in vestment spending, therefore, become small and its effects to stimulate the economic growth are rather limited.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Temple, J. R. W.(1999)。The New Growth Evidence。Journal of Economic Literature,37(1),112-156。
2.
Munnell, A. H.(1990)。Why Has Productivity Growth Declined? Productivity and Public Investment。New England Economic Review,1990(Jan./Feb.),3-22。
3.
Arrow, K. J.、Debreu, G.(1954)。Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy。Econometrica,22(3),265-290。
4.
Galor, O.、H. E. Ryder.(1989)。Existence, Uniqueness, and Stability of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Productive Capital。Journal of Economic Theory,49,360-375。
5.
Mastromarco, C.、Woitek, U.(2006)。Public Infrastructure Investment and Efficiency in Italian Regions。Journal of Productivity Analysis,25(1-2),57-65。
6.
Konishi, H.、F. Perera-Tallo(1997)。“Existence of Steady-State Equilibrium in an Overlapping-Generations Model with Production,”。Economic Theory,9,529–537。
7.
Gramlich, Edward M.(1994)。Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay。Journal of Economic Literature,32(3),1176-1196。
8.
Harrison, W. J.、Pearson, K. R.(1996)。Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK。Computational Economics,9(2),83-127。
9.
Hall, E. R.、Jones, I. C.(1999)。Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?。Quarterly Journal of Economics,114(1),83-116。
10.
Acemoglu, Daron、Johnson, Simon、Robinson, James A.(2001)。The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation。American Economic Review,91(5),1369-1401。
11.
Islam, Nazrul(1995)。Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,110(4),1127-1170。
12.
Solow, Robert Merton(1956)。A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,70(1),65-94。
13.
Aschauer, David Alan(1989)。Is Public Expenditure Productive?。Journal of Monetary Economics,23(2),177-200。
14.
Baltagi, B. H. and N. Pinnoi(1995)。“Public Capital and State Productivity Growth:Further Evidence from an Error Components Model,”。Empirical Economics,20,351–359。
15.
Evans, P. and G. Karras(1994)。“Is Government Capital Productive? Evidence from a Panel of Seven Countries,”。Journal of Macroeconomics,16,271–279。
16.
Garc´ıa-Mil`a, T., T. J. McGuire, and R. H. Porter(1996)。“The Effect of Public Capitalin State-Level Production Functions Reconsidered,”。The Review of Economics and Statistics,78,177–180。
17.
Ihori, T.(1978)。“The Golden Rule and the Role of Government in a Life Cycle Growth Model,”。American Economic Review,68,389–396。
18.
Smyth, D. J.(1994)。“Inflation and Growth,”。Journal of Macroeconomics,16,261–270。
19.
Sturm, J. E. and J. de Haan(1995)。“Is Public Expenditure Really Productive? New Evidence for the US and the Netherlands,”。Economic Modelling,12,60–72。
20.
Tatom, J. A.(1991)。“Public Capital and Private Sector Performance,”。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review,73,3–15。
21.
Holtz-Eakin, D.(1994)。“Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle”。Review of Economics and Statistics,76,12–21。
22.
Baltagi, B. H.、N. Pinnoi(1995)。Public Capital and State Productivity Growth: Further Evidence from an Error Components Model。Empirical Economics,20,351-359。
23.
Evans, P.、Karras, G.(1994)。Is Government Capital Productive? Evidence from a Panel of Seven Countries。Journal of Macroeconomics,16(2),271-279。
24.
García-Milà, T.、T. J. McGuire、R. H. Porter(1996)。The Effect of Public Capital in State-Level Production Functions Reconsidered。The Review of Economics and Statistics,78,177-180。
25.
Ihori, T.(1978)。The Golden Rule and the Role of Government in a Life Cycle Growth Model。American Economic Review,68,389-396。
26.
Smyth, D. J.(1994)。Inflation and Growth。Journal of Macroeconomics,16,261-270。
27.
Hoitz-Eakin, D.(1994)。Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle。Review of Economics and Statistics,76(1),12-21。
28.
Sturm, J. E.、J. de Haan(1995)。Is Public Expenditure Really Productive? New Evidence for the US and the Netherlands。Economic Modelling,12,60-72。
29.
Tatom, J. A.(1991)。Public Capital and Private Sector Performance。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review,73,3-15。
研究報告
1.
Johansen, L.(1960)。A Multisectoral Study of Economic Growth。Amsterdam。
圖書
1.
行政院經建會(2004)。《新十大建設》。臺北:行政院經建會。
延伸查詢
2.
Chan, Steve, Cal Clark, and Danny Lam, eds.(1998)。Beyond the Developmental State: East Asia’s Political Economies Reconsidered。London; New York:MacMillan and St Martin’s Press。
3.
Walras, L.(1874)。El´ements D´economie Politique Pure, Ou Th´eorie de la Richesse Sociale。Lausanne:Corbaz。
4.
Scarf, H. E.(1973)。The computation of economic equilibria。New Haven:Yale University Press。
5.
Dixon, P. B. and M. T. Rimmer(2004)。Dynamic, General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of Monash。Amsterdam:Elsevier Science。
6.
Rosen, H. S. and T. Gayer(2008)。Public Finance。New York:McGraw- Hill/Irwin。
7.
Dixon, P. B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Sutton, John、Vincent, D. P.(1982)。ORANI: A multisectoral model of the Australian economy。North-Holland。
8.
Mankiw, N. G.(2007)。Principles of Economics。Mason, OH:Thomson South-Western。
9.
Dervis, Kemal、De Melo, Jaime、Robinson, Sherman(1982)。General equilibrium models for development policy。Cambridge University Press。
10.
Johansen, Leif(1960)。A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth。Amsterdam:North-Holland Publishing Company。
11.
Woo-Cumings, Meredith(1999)。The Developmental State。Cornell University Press。
12.
Johnson, Chalmers(1982)。MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925-1975。Stanford University Press。
13.
行政院經建會(2009)。《Taiwan Statistical Data Book》。臺北。
延伸查詢
14.
行政院主計處(2008)。《97年人力資源調查統計年報》。臺北。
延伸查詢
15.
行政院經建會(2009)。《Taiwan Statistical Data Book》。臺北。
延伸查詢
16.
Dixon, P. B.、B. R. Parmenter、J. Sutton、D. R Vincent(1982)。ORAM: A MultiSectoral Model of the Australian Economy。Amsterdam。
其他
1.
Aschauer, D. A.(1988)。Does Public Capital Crowd Out Private Capital?,Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago。
2.
行政院主計處(2008)。《97 年人力資源調查統計年報》,臺北。
延伸查詢
圖書論文
1.
Johnson, Chalmers A.(1999)。The Developmental State: Odyssey of a Concept。The Developmental State。Cornell University Press。
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