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題名：少子化與高齡化下的臺灣人口預測與經濟分析
書刊名：臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者：林幸君 引用關係／李慧琳 引用關係／許聖民／林國榮／李篤華 引用關係／張靜貞 引用關係／徐世勳
作者(外文)：Lin, Hsing-chun／Lee, Huey-lin／Hsu, Sheng Ming／Lin, Kuo-jung／Lee, Duu-hwa／Chang, Ching-cheng／Hsu, Shih-hsun
出版日期：2015
卷期：46:1
頁次：頁113-156
主題關鍵詞：少子化；高齡化；動態可計算一般均衡模型；人口預測；Low fertility rate；Population ageing；Dynamic computable general equilibrium model；Population forecasting
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(10) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:10
  • 共同引用共同引用:50
  • 點閱點閱:87
臺灣近年由於晚婚、不婚、晚育、少育，甚至不育的現象持續發展，加以平均餘命的延長，少子化及人口高齡化也成為大家關切的議題。本文建構GEMTEE動態可計算一般均衡模型，考量人口模組與總體經濟模組交互回饋影響，生育率、死亡率等為內生決定，進行2012至2060年臺灣人口的基線預測,並與行政院經濟建設委員會（2012）預測進行比較分析，結果顯示，GEMTEE推估未來總人口減少趨勢比經建會更為嚴重，預估2060年我國總人口數為1,478.8萬人，約減少814.2萬人。整體而言，在考量經濟因素之下，預期未來因為人口結構改變使得少子化與高齡化問題更為加劇，且使得人口結構快速改變，未來面臨更為嚴重的老幼照顧問題。
Over the past few decades, the population growth of Taiwan has been de- creasing, particularly with the increasing situations of late-marriage, no-marriage, late-childbearing, few-childbearing and even no-childbearing ever since the 1980s. The low fertility rate and ageing population have put demographic policies as the top of the agenda for Taiwan's sustainable economic growth. In this study, we use the GEMTEE model-a computable general equilibrium model with both investment and demographic dynamics-to provide baseline forecasting for Taiwan's population and investigate its potential economic impacts. We also compare our results with predictions from Council of Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) where Cohort-Component Method (CCM) is used and all economic factors are set exogenously. Other things being equal, our results show that Taiwan's population will decrease to 14.79million in 2060. Such a result is more severe than that predicted by CEPD. Interdependency and feed- backs between demographic transition and economic factors, especially the labor force declining and income growth, bring into focus the importance of the problems of low fertility rate and ageing population in Taiwan.
期刊論文
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5.李秉正、張其祿、李慧琳(20100300)。擴大政府公共投資支出之經濟成長方案是否依然有效? 我國新十大建設計畫的可計算一般均衡分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，40(2)，127-159。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Fougères, Maxime、Mercenier, J.、Merette, M.(2007)。A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model。Economic Molelling，24，690-711。  new window
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29.Wendner, Ronald(2001)。An Applied Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Environmental Tax Reforms and Pension Policy。Journal of Policy Modeling，23(1)，25-50。  new window
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會議論文
1.Giesecke, J.、Picton, M. R.(2005)。Disaggregating the Health Sector in MONASH for Forecasting and Policy。8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis，(會議日期: 20050609~20050611)。Lubeck：Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University。  new window
2.Honkatukia, J.、Jouko, K.、Marttila, K.(2009)。Anticipating the Regional Effects of an Ageing Population: A Dynamic CGE Analysis for Finland。12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis。Santiago：Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University。  new window
3.Volz, U. B.(2008)。Aging, Labor Supply and Consumption: Sectoral Effects of Demographic Change in Germany。11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis。Helsinki：Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University。  new window
研究報告
1.張靜貞(2002)。內生勞動供給機制下臺灣動態CGE模型的構建與應用。  延伸查詢new window
2.Luci, A.、Thevenon, O.(2010)。Does Economic Development Drive the Fertility Rebound in OECD Countries?。  new window
3.內政部統計處(2012)。統計年報。臺北：內政部統計處。  延伸查詢new window
4.行政院主計總處(2006)。臺閩地區工商普查報告。臺北：行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
5.行政院主計總處(2006)。國富統計報告。臺北：行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
6.行政院主計總處(2010)。95年產業關聯表編製報告。臺北：行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
7.Fehr, H.(2011)。CGE Modelling Social Security Reforms。University of Wuerzburg and Netspar。  new window
8.Pant, H. M.(2014)。A Generic Approach to Investment Allocation in Recursively Dynamic CGE Models。Australian National University。  new window
9.Park, S.、Hewings, G. J. D.(2007)。Does a Change in Retirement Age Affect a Regional Economy Evidence from the Chicago Economy?。Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois。  new window
10.Peng, X.、Mai, Y.(2008)。Population Ageing, Labour Market Reform and Economic Growth in China--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis。Center of Policy Studies。  new window
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12.行政院主計處(2010)。國民所得統計年報。臺北：行政院主計處。  延伸查詢new window
13.行政院經濟建設委員會(2012)。2012年至2060年臺灣人口推計。臺北：行政院經濟建設委員會。  延伸查詢new window
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15.Dixon, Peter B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Rimmer, M. T.(1997)。MONASH: a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model of Australian economy。Australia：Monash University。  new window
學位論文
1.林國榮(2000)。台灣人力需求預測動態CGE模型的建立與運用(博士論文)。中國文化大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
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其他
1.朱敬一(2010)。臺灣該把生育率提高多少呢? 2011/04/28。  延伸查詢new window
2.朱敬一(20120817)。臺灣老化早十年，老人產業輸入大陸商機大。  延伸查詢new window
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圖書論文
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