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題名:政府擴大公共建設投資支出對我國總體經濟、財政及所得分配影響之動態一般均衡分析
書刊名:臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者:劉瑞文許聖民林幸君 引用關係謝德衍張靜貞徐世勳 引用關係
作者(外文):Liou, Ruey-wanHsu, Sheng MingLin, Hsing-chunHsieh, Te-yenChang, Ching-chengHsu, Shih-hsun
出版日期:2018
卷期:48:2
頁次:頁41-77
主題關鍵詞:公共投資所得分配動態可計算一般均衡模型Public investmentIncome distributionDynamic computable general equilibrium model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:37
  • 點閱點閱:8
我國政府投資占國內生產毛額比率由2005年的4.12%降至2015年的2.60%,而政府投資逐年下滑造成基礎建設無法支撐產業升級需要,使得經濟成長力道趨緩。本文針對政府擴大公共建設投資支出,分別輔以增加所得稅或提升間接稅作為政府投資財源,分析對國內經濟與產業影響。模擬結果顯示,若擴大政府投資,國內的非貿易競爭型產業將透過實質匯率下降之影響,以及民間投資與內需市場之帶動下而擴大產出,有利經濟成長與產業發展。若採用所得稅融通,能使國內所得分配不均改善;若採間接稅支付政府消費,則對財政餘絀能有正面效果。
The ratio of the Taiwanese government's investment to GDP dropped from 4.12% in 2005 to 2.60% in 2015, and continued to fall afterwards. The diminishing investment in infrastructure was insufficient to support industrial needs and slowed economic growth. This paper examines the effects of an expansion in public construction investment expenditure. We assume two alternatives for financing such expenditures. The first is an increase in income tax, and the second is an increase in indirect taxes as the source for government investment. Simulation results show that increased government investment will have a more positive effect on GDP than increased government consumption. Additionally, government investment induces further private investment. Using income taxes to finance investment can reduce domestic income inequality. Indirect taxation, on the other hand, can have a positive effect on financial debt if used for government consumption. Due to domestic currency appreciation as well as investment-driven effects, domestic non-trade-based industries can experience improved industrial output, favorable economic growth, and industrial development.
期刊論文
1.孫克難(20090300)。公共投資、財政紀律與經濟成長。財稅研究,41(2),1-27。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.李秉正、張其祿、李慧琳(20100300)。擴大政府公共投資支出之經濟成長方案是否依然有效? 我國新十大建設計畫的可計算一般均衡分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策,40(2),127-159。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.劉瑞文(20010600)。產業結構變遷對國內就業與所得分配的影響。經濟論文叢刊,29(2),203-233。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Harrison, W. J.、Pearson, K. R.(1996)。Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK。Computational Economics,9(2),83-127。  new window
5.Turnovsky, Stephen J.(1996)。Optimal Tax, Debt, and Expenditure Policies in a Growing Economy。Journal of Public Economics,60(1),21-44。  new window
6.Easterly, W.、Rebelo, S.(1993)。Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Emirical Investigation。Journal of Monetary Economics,32(3),417-458。  new window
7.林幸君、李慧琳、許聖民、林國榮、李篤華、張靜貞、徐世勳(2015)。少子化與高齢化下的臺灣人口預測與經濟分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策,46(1),113-156。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Alm, J.、El-Ganainy, A.(2013)。Value-Added Taxation and Consumption。International Tax and Public Finance,20(1),105-128。  new window
9.Fouladi, M.(2010)。The Impact of Government Expenditure on GDP, Employment and Private Investment a CGE Model Approach。Iranian Economic Review,15(27),53-76。  new window
10.Giesecke, J. A.、Madden, J. R.(2003)。A Large-Scale Dynamic Multi-Regional CGE Model with an Illustrative Application。Review of Urban and Regional Development Studiesy,15(1),2-25。  new window
11.Krueger, D.、Ludwig, A.(2013)。Optimal Progressive Labor Income Taxation and Education Subsidies When Education Decisions and Intergenerational Transfers Are Endogenous。American Economic Review,103(3),496-501。  new window
12.Mostert, J. W.、Van Heerden, J. H.(2015)。A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Expenditure on Infrastructure in the Limpopo Economy in South Africa。International Advances in Economic Research,21(2),227-236。  new window
13.Mullen, J. K.、Williams, M.(1994)。Marginal Tax Rates and State Economic Growth。Regional Science and Urban Economics,24,687-705。  new window
14.Narayan, P. K.(2003)。The Macroeconomic Impact of the IMF Recommended VAT Policy for the Fiji Economy: Rvidence from a CGE Model。Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies,15,227-236。  new window
15.Radulescu, D.、Stimmelmayr, M.(2010)。The Impact of the 2008 German Corporate Tax Reform: A Dynamic CGE Analysis。Economic Modelling,27(1),454-467。  new window
16.Roine, J.、Vlachos, J.、Waldenstrom, D.(2009)。The Long-Run Determinants of Inequality: What Can We Learn from Top Income Data?。Journal of Public Economics,93(7/8),974-988。  new window
17.Saez, E.(2004)。Reported Incomes and Marginal Tax Rates, 1960-2000: Evidence and Policy Implications。Tax Policy and the Economy,18,117-174。  new window
18.吳中書、范芝萍(20061000)。營業稅調整對總體經濟之可能衝擊。臺灣經濟預測與政策,37(1),113-154。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Aschauer, David Alan(1989)。Is Public Expenditure Productive?。Journal of Monetary Economics,23(2),177-200。  new window
研究報告
1.行政院主計總處(2014)。國富統計報告。臺北:行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
2.劉瑞文(1998)。我國可計算一般均衡模型ROCGEM之建立與應用。行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
3.Piketty, T.、Saez, E.、Stantcheva, S.(2011)。Optimal Taxation of Top Labor Incomes: A Tale of Three Elasticities。  new window
圖書
1.中央研究院(2014)。賦稅改革政策建議書。臺北:中央研究院。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院主計總處(2014)。國民所得統計年報。臺北:行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
3.內政部統計處(2014)。統計年報。臺北:內政部統計處。  延伸查詢new window
4.中央銀行(2015)。當前臺灣經濟成長動能減緩原因與對策。臺北:中央銀行。  延伸查詢new window
5.行政院主計總處(2014)。2011年臺灣地區產業關聯表。臺北:行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
6.行政院主計總處(2014)。臺閩地區工商普查報告。臺北:行政院主計總處。  延伸查詢new window
7.行政院經濟建設委員會(2013)。OECD國家直接稅與間接稅之變化趨勢。臺北:行政院經濟建設委員會。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.胡勝正(20150630)。臺灣的選擇--臺灣需要基礎建設。  延伸查詢new window
2.Atkinson, A. B.,Leigh, A.(2010)。The Distribution of Top Incomes in Five Anglo-Saxon Countries over the Twentieth Century。  new window
 
 
 
 
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