本文以總體經濟計量模型, 探討促進產業升級條例租稅減免實施屆滿後, 對臺灣總體經濟之效果, 並模擬分析不同政策的情境比較。模擬結果顯示, 單純取消促產條例租稅減免, 對國民經濟將產生負面效果, 實質GDP 與經濟成長率皆較基準預測值下降。進一步比較促產條例的兩種配套措施, 即減稅與擴大政府支出的政策效果, 若要降低促產條例落日後的負面衝擊, 應採取對綜所稅與營所稅雙降之減稅措施較佳, 此可從國內生產毛額與其組成項目, 以及經濟成長率等變數的表現可知。雖然此配套措施在實施後使財政赤字攀升, 但透過刺激國民生產, 將可有利稅收增加, 財政收支餘絀可逐漸改善。惟此減稅政策下, 因累進效果降低, 可能導致所得分配不均度提高, 將是必須留意的問題。

This paper analyzes the effects of terminating the Statute for Upgrading Industries on Taiwan economy. The tax reduction policies in the Statue for Upgrading Industries offer tax incentives for private investment. Therefore, canceling the tax reduction policies may have negative impacts on the economy. The simulations show that reducing both the individual and corporate income tax is better than increasing the government spending after comparing the methods to alleviate the negative effects of canceling the tax reduction policies, because the former can effectively stimulate the economic growth rate, raise real GDP and improve income distribution. In this situation, the budget balance may deteriorate, and the government debt to GDP ratio becomes higher in the short run. However, the sustainable economic growth trend will make the tax revenue expand gradually. Finally, the public finance situation can improve in the end. But the problem is that the progressive effects of the income tax become weaker in this scenario. The income distribution may be worse than that in the baseline in the long run.