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題名:以收益資產複合基礎法與分量迴歸分析建構營建企業評價模型
書刊名:營建管理季刊
作者:葉怡成詹翔安
作者(外文):Yeh, I-chengZhan, Siang-an
出版日期:2014
卷期:99
頁次:頁1-19
主題關鍵詞:盈餘資產分量迴歸分析營建企業企業價值EarningsAssetQuantile regression analysisConstruction enterpriseEnterprise value
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:28
  • 點閱點閱:19
本文提出收益資產複合基礎法以改進現有企業評價模型,並以分量迴歸分析估計企業價值的分佈,最後實證研究建築業與營造業這兩種營建企業與其他產業的企業評價模型之差異。由於上市上櫃公司的股價乘以總股數得到的總市值合理地呈現企業價值,因此本文以股市年財報歷史資料庫做為實證的資料來源。結論如下:(1)經由三個簡單的假設,本研究推導出企業價值與淨值及股東權益報酬率之間的公式,這個公式合理地綜合了淨值與盈餘對企業價值的貢獻,比傳統方法更具合理的理論基礎。(2)分量迴歸分析可以估計企業價值的分佈。企業價值的下限較受股東權益報酬率影響,而上限較受淨值影響。(3)對以房地產開發為主的建築業公司而言,股東權益報酬率對企業價值的影響比淨值的影響低。(4)對以承攬營建工程為主的營造業公司而言,股東權益報酬率的影響與其他產業相近,但當股東權益報酬率等於0時,股價與每股淨值的比例較低。(5)企業評價具有產業區別性。如果忽略產業區別性,用全體產業的企業評價模型來評價建築業、營造業公司會有明顯高估的現象。(6)在特定股東權益報酬率下,公司的股價淨值比呈現對數常態分佈。建築業公司的股價淨值比的對數常態分佈比一般產業更靠近分佈曲線橫軸的左側,即估值更低。營造業則比建築業更靠近左側。
This paper proposes an earnings-asset-hybrid-based approach to supplement the existing valuation models, presents using quantile regression analysis to estimate the distribution of the enterprise value, and finally, explores the difference between the valuation models for construction enterprises and other enterprises. Since the publicly traded company's share price multiplied by the total number of shares is the reasonable estimation of the enterprise value, the stock market historical database was employed as the source of empirical data. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) through three simple assumptions, a reasonable valuation formula predicting enterprise value with book value and return on equity was derived. (2) The distribution of enterprise value can be estimated with quantile regression analysis. The lower bound of the enterprise value was dominated by the return on equity, while the upper bound was dominated by the book value. (3) With respect to the real estate development enterprise, the impact of return on equity to enterprise value is low, while the impact of book value is high. (4) With respect to the heavy construction industry, the impact of return on equity to enterprise value is similar to the other industries, but when the return on equity equal to zero, the price-to-book value ratio is lower than the other industries. (5) The enterprise value valuation models of construction industry are very different from those of the other industries. There is an industrial distinctive difference in valuation models. If the industrial distinctive difference is ignored, and the enterprise value of construction enterprise is valuated with valuation models of total industry, it will be significantly overestimated. (6) At a specific return on equity and book value, the company's enterprise value presents a lognormal distribution. The lognormal distribution of the enterprise value of the real estate development company is closer to left side than those of the other industries, while the heavy construction company is closer to left side than that of the real estate development company.
期刊論文
1.Mello, M.、Perrelli, R.(2003)。Growth Equations: A Quantile Regression Exploration。The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,43(4),643-667。  new window
2.Melly, B.(2005)。Decomposition of differences in distribution using quantile regression。Labour Economics,12(4),577–590。  new window
3.Ohlson, J. A.(2001)。Earnings, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation: An Empirical Perspective。Contemporary Accounting Research,18(1),107-120。  new window
4.Gilson, Stuart C.、Hotchkiss, Edith S.、Ruback, Richard S.(2000)。Valuation of Bankrupt Firms。Review of Financial Studies,13(1),43-74。  new window
5.Lie, Erik、Lie, Heidi J.(2002)。Multiples Used to Estimate Corporate Value。Financial Analysts Journal,58(2),44-54。  new window
6.Gowlland, C.、Xiao, Z.、Zeng, Q.(2009)。Beyond the central tendency: Quantile regression as a tool in quantitative investing。The Journal of Portfolio Management,35(3),106-119。  new window
7.Francis, Jennifer、Olsson, Per、Oswald, Dennis R.(2000)。Comparing the Accuracy and Explainability of Dividend, Free Cash Flow, and Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates。Journal of Accounting Research,38(1),45-70。  new window
8.Koenker, Roger、Hallock, Kevin F.(2001)。Quantile Regression: An Introduction。Journal of Economic Perspectives,15(4),143-156。  new window
9.Timothy, A. Luehrman(1997)。What's It Worth? A General Manager's Guide to Valuation。Harvard Business Review,75(3),132-142。  new window
10.Fattouh, B.、Scaramozzino, P.、Harris, L.(2005)。Capital Structure in South Korea: A Quantile Regression Approach。Journal of Development Economics,76(1),231-250。  new window
11.Liu, J.、Ohlson, J. A.(2000)。The Feltham-Ohlson (1995) Model: Empirical Implications。Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance,15(3),321-336。  new window
12.Adsera, Xavier、Vinolas, Pere(2003)。FEVA: A Financial and Economic Approach to Valuation。Financial Analysts Journal,59(2),80-87。  new window
13.Dimson, E.、Nagel, S.、Quigley, G.(2003)。Capturing the Value Premium in the United Kingdom 1995-2001。Financial Analysts Journal,59(6),35-45。  new window
14.Fernández, P.(2007)。Valuing companies by cash flow discounting: ten methods and nine theories。Managerial Finance,33(11),853-876。  new window
15.Garza-Gómez, Xavier(2001)。The Information Content of the Book-to-Market Ratio。Financial Analysts Journal,57(6),78-95。  new window
16.Ghicas, D. C.、Iriotis, N.、Papadaki, A.、Walker, M.(2000)。Fundamental Analysis and the Valuation of IPOs in the Construction Industry。International Journal of Accounting,35(2),227-241。  new window
17.Liao, W. C.、Wang, X.(2012)。Hedonic house prices and spatial quantile regression。Journal of Housing Economics,21(1),16-27。  new window
18.Molodovsky, Nicholas(1995)。A theory of price-earnings ratios。Financial Analysts Journal,51(1),29-43。  new window
19.Park, Young S.、Lee, Jung-Jin(2003)。An empirical study on the relevance of applying relative valuation models to investment strategies in the Japanese stock market。Japan and the World Economy,15(3),331-339。  new window
20.Yeh, I-Cheng、Hsu, Tzu-Kuang(2012)。Growth Value Two-Factor Model。Journal of Asset Management,11(6),435-451。  new window
21.曾惠斌、荷世平、宋秋緯、蔡榮根、楊宜軒(2009)。企業評價模型運用於營建業之研究與實證。中國土木水利工程學刊,21(3),275-284。  延伸查詢new window
22.Liu, Jing、Nissim, Doron、Thomas, Jacob(2002)。Equity Valuation using Multiples。Journal of Accounting Research,40(1),135-172。  new window
23.Ohlson, James A.(1995)。Earnings, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation。Contemporary Accounting Research,11(2),661-687。  new window
24.李建興(20080400)。臺灣IPO折價影響因素之探討:分量迴歸分析法。證券市場發展季刊,20:1=77,頁47-99。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.Koenker, Roger W.、Bassett, Gilbert W. Jr.(1978)。Regression Quantiles。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,46(1),33-50。  new window
學位論文
1.陳俊孝(2008)。台灣電子產業與非電子產業股票報酬四因子模型再檢定-分量迴歸之應用(碩士論文)。義守大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.洪志洋(2010)。企業評價:原理與實務。新陸書局。  延伸查詢new window
2.周賓凰(2010)。計量經濟學:理論、觀念與應用。台北:智勝文化。  延伸查詢new window
3.王淑芬(2006)。企業評價。台北市:華泰文化事業股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
4.吳啟銘(2010)。企業評價:個案實證分析。智勝。new window  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.Barnes, M. L.,Hughs, A. W.(2002)。A Quantile Regression Analysis of the Cross Section of Stock Market Returns,http://ssrn.com/abstract=458522。  new window
圖書論文
1.葉怡成(2009)。基於基本面因子的指數股票型基金之理論與實證。第二屆白文正ETF金文獎得獎論文集。台北市:寶來投信。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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