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題名:銀行風險胃納之衡量與績效評估
作者:胡光華
作者(外文):Kuang-hua Hu
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
指導教授:沈大白
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2008
主題關鍵詞:風險胃納指數風險趨避銀行業風險容忍度risk appetite indexrisk aversionbankingrisk tolerance
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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90年代以來,國內外金融事件層出不窮,諸如1995年英國霸菱銀行李森事件、1997年亞洲金融風暴、1998年俄羅斯違約風暴與美國長期資本管理(Long-Term Capital Management, LTCM)危機、1998年本土型金融風暴、2005年國內雙卡風暴、2007年中華銀行擠兌風暴等,對國內外金融環境都造成嚴重的衝擊,更突顯金融風險控管的重要性,然而,銀行風險承擔能力更受大眾關切。所以,為避免金融危機的發生,銀行在追求某一目標或願景時,應將風險胃納量納入考量;同時,了解銀行本身風險胃納量的變化,也有助於降低危機發生的機率及經營效率之提昇。
目前國內尚無嚴謹衡量金融機構風險胃納的指標,故本研究提供一新的方法,以資產風險與超額報酬的等級(rank)關係,建立銀行之風險胃納指數(Risk Appetite Index, RAI),藉此衡量金融機構的風險胃納,作為銀行風險控管之指標,進而了解國內外發生重大金融危機時銀行風險胃納的變化,以及總體經濟因素與風險胃納的關係;其次,再以衡量之銀行風險胃納及資本適足率作為風險變數,以super SBM VAR 模型來評估銀行風險調整前後之效率表現。
實證結果發現,國內重大危機事件發生時,多數銀行之風險胃納量明顯下降,尤其,控制股東為政府機構之銀行相較於民營銀行,風險胃納指數相對較低,即承受風險的能力較低。股票報酬率與風險胃納呈現明顯的負相關,表示台股報酬率上升,銀行之風險胃納會下降。另外,銀行效率評估方面,經過風險調整後,國內銀行的效率值增加;但無論考量風險投入(資本適足率)或風險產出變數(風險胃納指數),銀行之效率值排名皆不會改變。所以,觀察RAI的變化,可做為銀行業者在訂定風險控管原則時,採取必要因應措施之依據,進而促進經營績效之提昇。
Since the 1990s, international financial events have emerged one after another: the Barings Bank event in 1995, the Asia financial crisis in 1997, the settlement of the Peregrine in 1998, the local financial crises (Taiwan) in 1998, the credit card and cash card trouble (Taiwan) in 2005, and in 2007 the bankruptcy of former Chinese Bank are all examples. Under these incessant international crises and the new Basel Ⅱ request, the banking industry is faced more severe challenges and bears much higher risk. Every banking business has different characteristics and capability of bearing risk; when a bank pursues an objective or a plan, it has to consider risk tolerance, so measuring the risk appetite of banks become important. Understanding the changes in risk appetite for banks can reduce the probability of a crisis occurs and raises bank’s performance.
At present, there is no rigorous method of measuring risk appetite for banks. In this paper, we proposed a method based on the rank correlation between risk of assets and excess returns to set a risk appetite index (RAI) to measure risk appetite of banks. We expected to explain how international financial crises or other serious economic events can change bank risk appetite and also to explain the relationship between bank risk appetite and macroeconomic factors. Moreover, we used RAI and capital adequacy as risk variables and adopt super SBM VAR to estimate the bank efficiency.
From the empirical cases, we found that local crises resulted in a significant decline in RAI for most banks and had a negative relationship with stock returns. Especially, the joint venture state-private banks had lower RAI than private banks, so the capability of joint venture banks for risk-bearing was inferior to that of private banks. An increase in equity return rates could lead to a decline in bank risk appetite. Alternatively, from a performance evaluation perspective, the average efficiency scores of banks which incorporate with the risk are significantly higher than those did not include the risk, but the rank for banks are not significantly difference. According to the changes in risk appetite, a banking enterprise can set a risk level which enable a bank to adjust related policy and company performance.
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