在游資泛濫，泡沫經濟及短期房價利多刺激下，促使建商大幅增加供給。因忽視 實際需求成長，民國八十一年起，住宅市場開始出現巨幅超額供給。繼而經濟不景氣、股市 停滯不前及非經濟因素影響下，不動產成交量急劇萎縮，這種過度重視供給而忽略需求，是 造成房市巨幅震盪的主因。本研究之主要目的，乃探討住宅需求和總體經濟及金融變數之長 期整合關係，以了解我國不動產市場影響需求面之潛在因素及因果關係。研究方法乃是以定 態及共整為基礎，進而架構誤差修正模型進行分析。主要結論為，(1) 住宅需求和部份經濟 及金融變數確實存在長期關係，而此種關係是錯綜複雜，並非單一政策可解釋房地產困境 ; (2) 誤差修正模型顯示，和住宅需求具有共整關係之經濟及金融變數，對住宅需求確實存 在短期影響力， 金融變數影響較快，總體經濟變數影響較慢，滯延期數較長;(3) 但總合一 起時，在多變量誤差修正模型下則呈不顯著，顯示經濟體系並無單一變數對住宅需求具有絕 對影響力。

　　　　　This study examines the long-term relationships between housing demand in Taipei Metropolitan and economic and financial developments. A relatively new methodology, which combines the cointegration concept and the error correction model, is employed. Several important findings are concluded. First, empirical evidence support the existence of cointegration relationships between housing demand and some of economic and financial variables. However, these connections are rather sophisticated. Second, the impacts from the changes of financial developments on housing demand are more immediate, but those from the economic side are lagging. Third, in the multivariate context, none of the included variables shows significant influential power, Policy implications of findings are also discussed thoroughly.