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題名：台灣資訊軟體產業發展之生態演進分析
作者：孫藹彬
校院名稱：國立中央大學
系所名稱：資訊管理研究所
指導教授：范錚強
學位類別：博士
出版日期：1998
主題關鍵詞：軟體業
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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本研究採用組織生態理論探討台灣地區資訊軟體產業的產業環境與產業發展過程之間的關係，屬於探索性研究。以長期、宏觀、動態的觀點，經由現象的分析與命題的衍生，建立軟體產業的環境特性與組織型式特性間的互動模式，並且依據此一理論架構，嘗試探討台灣地區軟體產業發展不如預期的關鍵因素。
從市場需求面來看，軟體產業的環境特性與其演變過程，主要來自於市場需求的變化。軟體的市場需求，隨著軟體採用者採用決策的階段性差異，出現了階段特性。本研究以「技術採用生命週期」的概念，將市場需求的變化過程區分成市場萌芽前、市場萌芽期、市場成長期、市場成熟期、市場衰退期、市場滅亡期等六階段，並分析前五階段的資源豐富性及環境變異性，以此描述產業環境特性的演變過程以及演變的原因。
從市場供給面來看，隨著市場需求的階段性差異，軟體產業的成長與發展亦產生階段性變化。本研究依據利基寬度與負載容量的觀點，探討軟體產業在不同的發展階段，因應不同的環境特性所形成的組織型式特性，並以此架構發展出本研究的五項命題，即【命題一】在市場萌芽前，營運機制簡單與營運範疇發散的軟體公司，存活能力較強。【命題二】在市場萌芽期，營運機制簡單與營運範疇集中的軟體公司，存活能力較強。【命題三】在市場成長期，營運機制複雜與營運範疇集中的軟體公司，存活能力較強。【命題四】在市場成熟期，營運機制複雜與營運範疇發散的軟體公司，存活能力較強。【命題五】在市場衰退期，營運機制簡單與營運範疇集中的軟體公司，存活能力較強。以此五項命題描述軟體產業在其演變過程，環境特性與組織形式特性之間的對應關係與互動模式。
本研究採多重個案研究法對特定關鍵人士進行深度訪談，並採用內容分析法分析資料，經由實徵資料的蒐集與分析，可以發現命題五由於可供引用的資料相對不足，無法得到明顯支持，其他四個命題皆得到資料的支持。
根據上述研究結果可以看出，一個產業的演進過程會隨著產業環境的階段性變化而改變。在不同的產業環境特性下，特定的組織型式因符合環境特性，具有較強的競爭能力，較能取得生存與成長的優勢，擁有較強的存活能力。其他的組織型式存活能力較差，較容易遭到淘汰的命運。
根據本研究可以推論，由於軟體產業屬於新興的知識型產業，對於產業知識的彙集處理仍然缺乏系統的方法，也沒有類似硬體產業的代工模式做為學習與成長的緩衝地帶，造成產業成熟的困難，更由於台灣地區市場規模小、環境資源不足，限制了廠商成長過程的容錯空間，各別公司常來不及建立成熟的運作機制就已經面臨淘汰，因此缺乏國際競爭能力，整體發展不盡理想。台灣地區資訊軟體產業若能掌握產業發展的階段特性與關鍵條件，選定適當的目標市場建立自主的核心能力，則其未來的發展潛力不容忽視。
This study is an exploratory research, looking into the relationship between the environment and the development process of the computer software industry in Taiwan. It attempts to gain insights into possible underlying factors that result in the underdevelopment of the local software industry. Based on the theory of organizational ecology, a set of propositions is derived to explain the interaction between environmental characteristics and organization forms, from a longitudinal, macro and dynamic perspective. Empirical data are collected using in-depth interviews with key individuals, and content analysis is carried out to examine the propositions for selected sub-industries.
From the market demand viewpoint, environmental characteristics and the evolution processes of the software industry are mainly influenced by the variation in market requirements. As the users of software products mature over times, their technological adoption decisions aggregated into market development stages. Based on the model of technology adoption life cycle, this study defines the software market development life cycle into pre-embryonic, embryonic, growth, mature, decline and phased-out stages. Important variables including resource abundance and environment variations are analyzed for the first five stages, to describe the changes in environmental characteristics for evolution processes and the factors resulting in the evolution.
From the market supply viewpoint, due to the differences in market demand at different stages, the development of the software industry also takes the form of stage development. Based on the niche width and carrying capacity concepts in the organizational ecology theory, the following propositions are derived, to explain the organization forms that best fit the environmental characteristics of the software industry at development stage.
Proposition 1: In the pre-embryonic stage of the market, companies with simple operational mechanism and diverse business scope are more viable.
Proposition 2: In the embryonic stage of the market, companies with simple operational mechanism and focused business scope are more viable.
Proposition 3: In the growth stage of the market, companies with complex operational mechanism and focused business scope are more viable.
Proposition 4: In the mature stage of the market, companies with complex operational mechanism and diverse business scope are more viable.
Proposition 5: In the decline stage of the market, companies with simple operational mechanism and focused business scope are more viable.
These propositions describe the relationships and interactions between the environments and organization forms throughout the evolution process of the software industry. Empirical data are collected to perform a preliminary examination of these propositions. Analysis of the data supported the first four propositions, while there is no sufficient empirical data to draw any conclusion concerning the fifth proposition.
According to these conclusions, the evolution of the software industry depends on the development and variation of market stages. At different market development stage, different types of organization form will be more competitive than the others. Companies that take the right organization form that better fit the environmental conditions of the specific stage have much higher survival and growth advantages.
Several inferences can be drawn from the study. The software industry is a new knowledge industry. There is still a lack of experience and effective ways to process related knowledge in running successful businesses. The small market scale and scarce environment resource in Taiwan limits the room for error in a company''s growing process. Under severe competition, a company has to face constant threats to survival, in order to resolve difficulties and build mature operational mechanisms. There are differences in environmental characteristics between software industry and hardware industry in Taiwan, resulting in different development experiences. The software industry has to control its own stage specific critical factors, identify proper market positions and build independent core competence, and then get success.
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