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題名:運用基因演算法建構疾病預測模型之研究-以尿路結石疾病預測為例
作者:江宏志
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:商學研究所
指導教授:蔣明晃
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2003
主題關鍵詞:人工智慧基因演算法疾病預測模型
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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運用電腦輔助醫師做診斷的工作一直是醫生或研究生命科學的學者所致力的方向。當臨床醫師遇到病患有眾多的數據資料需要分析時,很難用自己的記憶及個人大腦的判斷來診斷疾病,僅能將繁雜的病患資訊一一分開判讀,而無法做到資訊整合分析的工作。由於現今的電腦可以處理大量而且複雜的資訊,所以如何運用電腦的強大運算能力來做病患資訊整理與分析是大部份醫師目前所傾向努力的一個方向。電腦運算中的人工智慧技術可以補強現今醫師對於病患資料分析之不足部分,透過電腦的模擬運算,可以整合各式各樣的臨床資料與實驗數據,以期得到較佳的判讀結果。
本研究運用基因演算法的人工智慧建模工具建置出一個應用在尿路結石疾病的預測模型。此模型除了能考慮尿路結石相關基因的基本資料之外,對於病患的飲食習慣、運動習性及其他相關的資訊亦能一併的考慮到。除此之外,本研究也針對同一批病患的資訊,分別使用其他預測建模的技術 (如鑑別分析、邏輯迴歸、決策樹與類神經網路) 去建置出疾病預測模型以比較各類型的建模技術與基因演算法模型的優劣。為了能驗證基因演算法模型的有效性,我們在研究中還採用了田口實驗的設計技巧做一連串的的實驗。而所使用的模型效益評估指標有五個:病患分類正確率、分類敏感度、分類鑑別度、預測得病之概似比值與預測健康之概似比值。若將此基因演算法模型與其他四種預測模型相互比較,可以發現到基因演算法預測模型在這五個評估指標中都得到了相當良好的表現。本研究可說是極少數能夠整合國人之尿路結石相關的遺傳基因多型性的資訊與人工智慧的技術然後應用在疾病預測之研究,而且得到相當好的疾病預測結果。由此可知此基因演算法預測模型確實可以有效的應用在尿路結石疾病病患的預測分類問題上面,同時也證明人工智慧在疾病的預測應用上是相當可行而且值得期待的。
Using computer-aided tools when diagnosing patients is a good research method for doctors and researchers in life science these days. When clinical doctors are handling with different kinds of patients’ data these days, it’s quite difficult for them to use personal judgment in diagnosing what kind of disease the patient might have. The doctors can only use individual data analysis and basic statistics to find clues or patterns from patients’ raw data. Because computers nowadays have the ability to deal with mass and complex information, the doctors are also trying to utilize the computer’s powerful computing ability to analyze and manage patients’ information. Artificial Intelligence computing tools are able to complement what doctors lack of these days, they are able to combine different kinds of clinical patient data from the patients’ database and acquire much more readable results from the raw data.
This study uses Genetic Algorithm to construct a disease predictive model for urinary stone disease. The model not only utilizes patients’ gene information related in stone disease, but also considers patients’ other environmental information such as daily eating habits and exercise habits. Besides constructing the Genetic Algorithm model, this study also uses different kinds of predictive model techniques (such as Discriminate Analysis, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree and Artificial Neural Network) to construct the same disease predictive model. The reason for doing this is because we want to compare our Genetic Algorithm model’s predictive accuracy with other predictive model techniques. In order to acquire objective conclusion for the comparison study, we also use Taguchi experiment technique to setup an experiment for our analysis models. There are five evaluation indexes we have used when comparing the models as below: patients’ classification rate, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value.
From the results of the experiment, we found out that the Genetic Algorithm model has good performance in five evaluation indexes. This study is one of the very few studies before that is able to use patients’ gene information and Genetic Algorithm technique to construct a disease predictive model in Taiwan. Based on this study, we have shown that the disease predictive model using Genetic Algorithm is able to implement quite successfully on urinary stone disease. This study also has shown that artificial intelligence predictive tools used on disease prediction are quite suitable and possible in the future.
Keywords: artificial intelligence, genetic algorithm, disease predictive model
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