Most of the traditional studies about land use mainly focus on general description and overall interpretation, thus, ignore the differences among each land parcel and the micro view points. As the result, we areunable to draw up specific land development based on the present studies. Therefore, this paper adapts environmental factors which effecting land development, and builds the Probabilistic Model of Land Development Analysis with the technologies of Discrete Choice theory and Geographic Information System. Thepurpose of this paper is to capture the relationships between the environmental potential and land development. and to analyze spatial situations of lands, to be the forward-looking of land development. The study onChunpu, the area in Chai-yi County, is made as the empirical study of this paper. There are five parts in thispaper, including introduction, documents review, model framework, the empirical study and the conclusion.Our result shows that the I I main factors of which affect the land development for sure are topography,geology and the geology fault...etc.