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題名：都市土地使用變遷之研究
作者：張曜麟
作者(外文)：Yao-Lin Chang
校院名稱：國立成功大學
系所名稱：都市計劃學系碩博士班
指導教授：鄒克萬
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2005
主題關鍵詞：地理資訊系統；不連續選擇；階層式分析；土地使用變遷；Land Use Change；Discrete Choice；Hierarchical Analysis；Geographic Information Systems
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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土地資源有限而珍貴，為避免土地不適當的開發，應研擬適當的土地使用計畫，長期考量土地使用變遷過程，及自然與人為因素對土地使用造成的影響。土地使用(landuse)是一個地區內自然環境與人文活動交互作用並於地表上展現之結果，土地使用的分佈狀況反應出人類於其所居住的土地上之活動類型與決策行為。土地使用變遷是受到許多因子（包括政策、土地權屬、經濟、社會、文化、居民行為及自然環境等）交互作用下的結果。對於土地使用變遷結構性因素的掌握，有助於解釋人的土地決策行為，而對於土地決策者態度、價值觀的掌握，可以更完整的呈現真實以及捕捉結構性解釋所無法討論的部分。
有鑑於此，本研究即建構一個階層式的土地使用變遷研究架構暨解釋模式。本研究的理論基礎，係將之分為「外在環境驅動面」與「個體自主需求面」兩個面向。故落實於研究操作上，則將分析架構分為地區層級與基地層級兩個階段進行。地區層級之都市土地使用變遷分析模式探討住宅、商業、工業三種使用型態，基地層級之以個體為基礎之都市土地使用選擇模式則探討住宅與商業兩種使用型態。
研究結果顯示，在地區層級模式方面，不同的土地使用型態確實受不同的影響因子所影響，如住宅使用受空間互動變數之影響較大，商業使用則受可及性變數之影響較大。再透過空間擴張模式的引入，更提高了模式的解釋力，並反映出台南市的發展特性。而在基地層級方面，土地面積、鄰道路寬度、使用分區、年齡、職業別、所得等變數皆為顯著變數，而這些變數對住宅與商業之影響程度並不相同；另外，由地區層級所計算得到之土地使用變化機率變數亦為顯著之影響因子，意謂著個體決策者仍會考量外在環境之影響力，這顯示本研究之理論架構是可行的，故藉由階層式分析架構，更有助於瞭解土地使用變遷之機制。
Land resource is restricted and scarce, in order to avoid developing in inadequate manner, the evolutionary process of the land-use change and the natural and artificial reasons should be considered to plan for the land-use plan. Meanwhile, land-use is the outcomes of the interaction between natural environment and human actions. The distributions of land-use reflect the decision behaviors and activity types on the inhabitation. The changes of land-use are affected by the results of the interaction of many factors, such as policies, economics, society, culture, natural environment and human behaviors. Consequently, to get over on the factors which affect the changes of land-use is facilitate to the interpretation of land-use decisions, at the same time, is conducive to know well about the attitudes of land-use decision makers. In other words, it is contributory to grasp the latent elements of land-use changes, and represent the holistic reality.
This study builds the hierarchical framework and the interpreted model of land-use changes. The foundation theory is based on two dimensions, that is the dimension of environmental driving forces (the external factor), and the dimension of individual independent demands (the internal factor). In the aspect of operation, two phases of district level and site level is applied. At the district level, the model of urban land-use changes probes into the types of housing, commerce, and industry. At the site level, the individual choice based model of urban land-use changes to go into the types of housing and commerce.
The outcomes of this study reveal the following conclusions. The varied land-use types are indeed affected by different factors at the district level. For instance, housing decision is influenced by the spatial interaction, and the commerce decision is affected by accessibility. Then, the interpretation of the model is enhanced by addition of the model of spatial expansion. Those models exhibit the characters of Tainan City perfectly. In the aspect of site level, the obvious variables are area, width of adjacent street, zone, age, occupation and income. However, those variables have different effect degree on housing and commerce. In addition, the variable of probability of land-use change, which is calculated by the district level, is as well as the obvious variable. It presents that the environmental driving forces affect decisions of an individual. It is concluded that the hierarchical framework of this study is practicable, and also help to understand the mechanism of land-use changes.
[英文文獻]

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