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來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
決策嵌陷的成因分析
書刊名:
管理學報
作者:
林家五
/
鄭伯壎
/
蔡明宏
作者(外文):
Lin, Chia-wu
/
Cheng, Borshiuan
/
Tsai, Minghong
出版日期:
2000
卷期:
17:3
頁次:
頁515-546
主題關鍵詞:
嵌陷行為
;
自我申辯
;
前景理論
;
確定效果
;
實驗室研究
;
Entrapment behavior
;
Self-justification
;
Prospect theory
;
Certainty effect
;
Experimental approach
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
4
) 博士論文(
1
) 專書(0) 專書論文(
2
)
排除自我引用:
2
共同引用:0
點閱:190
本研究針對決革嵌陷行為的成因進行分析,探討決策者在面對一連串負面結果,為什麼仍然執著於先前的抉擇,投入更多的資源與心力,而導致越陷越深的理由。就理論而言,Staw的申辯理論採動機情緒的觀點,認為「自我申辯」是促成嵌陷行為發生的主要機制;Kahneman 典Tversky 的前景理論則採訊息處理的觀點,主張「確定效果」的作用會引發知覺價值扭曲,這才是導致在嵌陷行為發 生的主因。本研究嘗試統合此二理論的想法,來解釋嵌陷行為的發生。研究採實驗室研究的方式,以中級以上主管為受試對象,並且用電腦模擬組織決策情境, 操弄個人責任的高低與實行成果的成敗兩變項,結果發現,企業組織中管理者的決策確實有嵌陷行為的發生,但是只有前景理論的「確定效果」獲得證實。申辯理論中的「自我申辯」效果並不被支持。最後,研究者並提出對缺陷行為的預防措施,以及發生嵌陷行為之後的修正之道。
以文找文
"Decision entrapment" refers to the phenomenon that decision-makers commit to the negative or failure choices, and tend to throw more resources in some projects that seem to fail certainly. We try to combine two contradictory viewpoints, self-justification vs. information-processing perspectives, to clarify the causality of decision entrapment through experimental approach. Staw suggests that the emotional “self-justification" is the major mechanism of decision entrapment. Adopting the information-processing perspective, Kahneman & Tversky propose that “certainty effect" bring about perception distortion, which is the main cause of entrapment behavior. We used computer programs to simulate a decision-making scenario, and manipulated “personal responsibility" and "project output" variables. The subjects are middle-leveled (and above) managers from 5 companies, and were asked to play the role of general managers in the simulated task. The result doesn't support the self-justification perspective, but verifies certainty effect of prospect theory. We then propose some management techniques to prevent and correct entrapment behavior.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Staw, B. M.、Fox, F.(1977)。Escalation: Some determinants to a previously chosen course of action。Human Relations,30,431-450。
2.
March, J.G.(1978)。Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice。Bell Journal of Economics,9,587-610。
3.
Kahneman, D.、Tversky, A.(1979)。Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk。Econometrica,47(2),263-291。
4.
Staw, B. M.、Ross, J.(1980)。Commitment in an experimenting society: An experiment on the attribution of leadership from administrative scenarios。Journal of Applied Psychology,65(2),249-260。
5.
Staw, Barry M.(1981)。The Escalation of Commitment to a Course of Action。Academy of Management Review,6(4),577-587。
6.
Arkes, Hal R.、Blumer, Catherine(1985)。The Psychology of Sunk Cost。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,35(1),124-140。
7.
Garland, H. G.(1990)。Throwing Good Money after Bad: The Effect of sunk Costs on the Decision to Escalate Commitment to an Ongoing Project。Journal of Applied Psychology,75(6),728-731。
8.
Northcraft, G. B.、Neale, M. A.(1986)。Opportunity costs and the framing of resource allocation decisions。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,37(3),348-356。
9.
Staw, Barry M.(1976)。Knee-deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,16(1),27-44。
10.
Whyte, G.(1986)。Escalating commitment to a course of action: a reinterpretation。Academy of Management Review,11(2),311-321。
11.
Thaler, Richard H.(1980)。Toward a positive theory of consumer choice。Journal of Economic behavior and Organization,1(1),39-60。
12.
Caldwell, D. F.、O'Reilly, C. A., III(1982)。Responses to Failure: The Effects of Choice and Responsibility on Impression Management。The Academy of Management Journal,25,121-136。
13.
Bazerman, M. H.、Beekun, R. I.、Schoorman, F. D.(1982)。Performance evaluation in a dynamic context: A laboratory study of the impact of a prior commitment to the ratee。Journal of Applied Psychology,67,873-876。
14.
Bazerman, M. H.、Giuliano, T.、Appelman, A.(1984)。Escalation of Commitment in Individual and Group Decision Making。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,33,141-152。
15.
Brockner, J.、Nathanson, S.、Friend, A.、Harbeck, J.、Samuelson, C.、Houser, R.、Bazerman, M. H.、Rubin, J. Z.(1984)。The role of modeling process in the 'knee deep in the big muddy' phenomenon。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,33,77-99。
16.
Brockner, J.、Rubin, J. Z.、Lang, E.(1981)。Face-saving and entrapment。Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,17,68-79。
17.
Brockner, J.、Shaw, M. C.、Rubin, J. Z.(1979)。Factors affecting withdrawal from an escalating conflict: Quitting before it's too late。Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,15,492-503。
18.
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J.、Northcraft, G. B.(1985)。Patient compliance behavior: The effect of time on patients' values of treatment regimens。Social Science & Medicine,21,263-273。
19.
Conlon, E. J.、Wolf, G.(1980)。The moderating effects of strategy, visibility, and involvement on allocation behavior: An extension of Staw's escalation paradigm。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,26,172-192。
20.
Cooper, J.(1971)。Personal responsibility and dissonance: The role of foreseen consequences: An Integration and extension of the 'forced compliance' literature。Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,18,354-363。
21.
Fox, F. V.、Staw, B. M.(1979)。The trapped administrator: Effects of insecurity and policy resistance upon commitment to a course of action。Administrative Science Quarterly,24,449-471。
22.
Garland, H.、Newport, S.(1990)。Effects of absolute and relative sunk cost on the decision to persist with a course of action。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,54,215-248。
23.
Garland, H.、Sandefur, C. A.(1990)。De-escalation of commitment in oil exploration: When sunk costs and negative feedback coincide。Journal of Applied Psychology,75,721-727。
24.
Northcraft, G. B.、Wolf, G.(1984)。Dollars, sense, and sunk cost: A life cycle model of resource allocation decision。The Academy of Management Review,9,225-234。
25.
Rubin, J. Z.、Brockner, J.(1975)。Factors affecting entrapment in waiting situation: The rosencrantz and guildenstein effect。Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,31,1054-1063。
26.
Sherman, S. J.(1970)。Effects of choice and incentive on attitude change in a discrepant behavior situation。Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,15,245-252。
圖書
1.
Kiesler, Charles A.(1971)。The Psychology of Commitment: Experiments Linking Behavior to Belief。Academic Press。
2.
Brockner, J.、Rubin, J. Z.(1985)。Entrapment in escalating conflicts: A social psychological analysis。New York, NY:Springer-Verlag。
3.
Festinger, Leon(1957)。A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance。Stanford University Press。
4.
Aronson, E.(1976)。The social animal。The social animal。San Francisco, CA。
5.
Teger, A.(1980)。Too much invested to quit。Too much invested to quit。New York, NY。
圖書論文
1.
Aronson, E.(1968)。Dissonance theory: progress and problems。Theories of cognitive consistency: A source book。Chicago, IL:Rand-McNally。
2.
Triandis, Harry Charalambos(1994)。Cross-cultural industrial and organizational psychology。Handbook of Industrial & Organizational Psychology。Palo Alto, CA:Consulting Psychologists Press。
3.
Salancik, Gerald R.(1977)。Commitment and the control of organizational behavior and belief。New Directions in Organizational Behavior。Chicago, Illinois:St. Clair Press。
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