國際觀光旅館在觀光事業中扮演著重要的一環。政府自民國四十五年開始推動發展觀光事業，使來華觀光客逐年大量增加，不僅為國家賺取外匯、促成國民外交及文化交流，更帶動國家整個經濟的繁榮。 由於國際市場競爭，且國內物價指數偏高，造成來華觀光旅客趨緩，使得市場有供過於求之現象，造成國際觀光旅館競爭激烈。近年來國民所得提高、生活品質提升，且政府推動隔週週休二日，國民對休閒生活品質更加重視，使國人在國際觀光旅館住宿率逐年提升，其發展值得重視與探討。 本研究利用時間數列方法，以臺北、高雄、臺中、花蓮、風景與其他等六個地區國際觀光旅館國人住宿率為研究對象，以Box-Jenkins之四個步驟建立ARIMA模型。根據實證結果顯示，本研究所建立的預測模型其泰勒不等系數均小於一，RMSPE值亦皆很小，表此模型是適合進行預測之用。 根據本研究預測分析發現，民國八十九年各地區的國際觀光旅館國人住宿率平均而言有增加的現象。高雄、臺中、花蓮與其他地區等四個地區國人住宿率均超過50%，顯示國人已逐漸成為國際觀光旅館市場重要的客源。本研究的發現值得業者與政府相關單位之重視。

　　　　　The international tourist hotels usually play an important role in the tourism industry. There were a large number increase of foreign tourists visiting Taiwan ever since the government set the tourism business in action from 1956. The national income have increased in Taiwan, people demand better life of quality than before. The policy of two-day weekends makes Taiwanese people pay much attention to their leisure time now. Also, the yearly increasing occupancy rate of domestic tourists points an important trend in Taiwan's international tourist hotels here. Therefore, the occupancy rate of domestic tourist in the international tourist hotels will be the subject of this research. This study will concentrate on the occupancy rate of domestic tourists in international tourism hotels for the 6 different regions which are Taipei, Kaohsiung, Taichung, Hualien and other region. We will try to establish an ARIMA model for each region using Box-Jenkin method. According to practical result, the models established are suitable for forecasting. According to the forecasting in this study , it sis shown that the occupancy rate of domestic tourists in international tourism hotels for each region, will have the phenomenon of increasing in average at 2000. Furthermore, the occupancy rate of domestic tourists has exceed 50% in Kaohsiung, Taichung, Hualien and other region, which shows that the domestic tourists have became an important market of international tourism hotels.