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題名：在談判者效用互動下之風險衡量--以BOT計畫用地取得事件為例
書刊名：運輸計劃
作者：馮正民 引用關係／康照宗
作者(外文)：Feng, Cheng-min／Kang, Chao-chung
出版日期：2001
卷期：30:3
頁次：頁481-512
主題關鍵詞：討論；風險；風險衡量；效用相依；BOT；Discussion；Risk measurement；Utility dependent
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:22
  • 點閱點閱:35
本文目的在探討談判者或決策者之間有討論時，談判者如何對特許契約所存在之不確定性因素進行風險衡量。本文以效用相依及偏好可分性(weakly separable preference)觀念，採動態規劃方法構建談判群體效用衡量模式，研擬疊代求解法(iterative algorithm)，並以範例分析方式說明模式之可用性。經由範例分析顯示，影響談判者之間效用獨立與否，取決於效用交互影響值(interactive utility value, IUV)之和是否為0；當效用交互影響值之和趨近於0時，談判者之間的效用相依程度愈低，獨立越強；相對地，當校用交互影響值之和趨近於1時，談判者之間的效用相依程度越高;當談判者之間的效用差異越小，模式易於收斂；若談判者 之間的效用差異越大，討論次數會增加；討論次數增加時，談判者之間的效用交互影響值會遞減。而當在第l次討論即獲得求解時，此時談判群體投用值可由談判者之最初效用加總，此與談判者在獨立狀態下之衡量相同。
The purpose of this paper is to measure the risk of BOT projects when there is interactive relationship among the negotiators. Based on the utility theorem and the weak separability theorem, a dynamic programming of the risk measurement model is developed to simulate the utility dependent behavior among the negotiators. The results of numerical examples show that the inter, active relationship of negotiators increases when the sum of interactive utility value is near 1. Otherwise, the interactive relationship of negotiators becomes independent when the sum of interactive utility value is 0. The algorithm of the model can be converged when the difference value between negotiator s utility is small, and the discussion frequency increases when the difference value between negotiator s utility becomes large. It shows that the group utility model and iterative algorithm in this paper call be applied to analyze the inter, active behavior and risk measurement in BOT projects.
期刊論文
1.Tiong, L. K.、Alum, J.(1997)。Final Negotiation in Competitive BOT Tender。Journal of Construction Engineering and Management，123(1)，6-10。  new window
2.Jia, Jianmin、Dyer, J. S.(1996)。A Standard Measure of Risk and Risk-value Models。Management Science，42(12)，1691-1705。  new window
3.蔡明志(20000300)。風險管理在大眾運輸安全管理管制課題之發展應用。運輸計劃，29(1)，181-211。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.馮正民、鍾啟椿(20000300)。交通建設BOT案政府對民間造成之風險分析。運輸計劃，29(1)，79-108。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Luce, R. D.、Fishburn, P. C.(1995)。A note on deriving rank-dependent utility using additive joint receipts。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty，11(1)，5-16。  new window
6.馮正民、康照宗(20001200)。BOT計畫談判群體之風險評量。運輸計劃，29(4)，709-738。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Olson, D. L.、Bose, U.、Davey, A. M.(1997)。Multiattribute Utility Methods in Group Decision-making: Past Applications and Potential for Inclusion in GDSS。Omega: The International Journal of Management Science，25(6)，691-706。  new window
8.Tiong, L. K.(1995)。Risks and Guarantees in BOT Tender。Journal of Construction Engineering and Management，121(2)，183-187。  new window
9.Tiong, L. K.(1996)。CSFs in Competitive Tender and Negotiation Model for BOT Projects。Journal of Construction Engineering and Management，122(3)，205-211。  new window
10.馮正民、康照宗(1999)。Risk Identification and Measurement of BOT Projects。Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies，4(4)，331-350。  new window
11.Bell, D. E.(1995)。Risk, Return, and Utility。Management Science，41(1)，23-30。  new window
12.Crandall, K. C.(1982)。Construction Risk: Multiattribute Approach。Journal of the Construction Division，108(2)，187-200。  new window
13.Carbone, E.(1997)。Discriminating between Preference Functionals: A Monte Carlo Study。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty，15(1)，29-54。  new window
14.Belichrosdt, H.、Quiggin, J.(1997)。Characterizing QALYs under a General Rank Dependent Utility Model。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty，15(2)，151-165。  new window
15.Daniels, R. L.、Keller, L. R.(1990)。An Experimental Evaluation of the Descriptive Validity of Lottery-dependent Utility Theory。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty，3(2)，115-134。  new window
16.Quiggin, J.(1991)。Comparative Static for Rank-dependent Expected Utility Theory。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty，4(4)，339-350。  new window
17.Kelsey, D.(1992)。Risk and Risk Aversion State-dependent Utility。Theory and Decision，33，71-82。  new window
18.曾國雄、陳亭羽、王日昌(1998)。A Weight-assessing Method with Habitual Domains。European Journal of Operational Research，110(4)，342-367。  new window
會議論文
1.馮正民、康照宗(1999)。BOT計畫群體決策在效用相依下之風險衡量模式。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Ansell, J.、Wharton, F.(1992)。Risk Analysis, Assessment and Management。Risk Analysis, Assessment and Management。Chichester, UK：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
2.Rescher, N.(1983)。Risk: A Philosophical Introduction to the Theory of Risk Evaluation and Management。Lanham, MD：University Press of America。  new window
3.Haimes, Yacov Y.(1998)。Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management。A Wiley-Interscience Publication, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.。  new window
4.Keeney, Ralph L.、Raiffa, Howard(1993)。Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs。Cambridge University Press。  new window
5.朱敬一(1990)。個體經濟分析。臺北：雙葉書廊：新陸。  延伸查詢new window
6.Buhlmann, H.(1996)。Mathematical Methods in Risk Theory。Mathematical Methods in Risk Theory。Berlin, Germany/ Heidelberg, Germany/ New York, NY。  new window
7.Cooper, D. F.、Chapman, C. B.(1987)。Risk Analysis for Large Projects: Models, Methods, and Cases。Risk Analysis for Large Projects: Models, Methods, and Cases。沒有紀錄。  new window
8.Lowrance, W. W.(1976)。Acceptable Risk。Acceptable Risk。Los Altos, CA。  new window
9.Walker, C.、Smith, A. J.(1996)。Privatized Infrastructure: the Build Operate Transfer。Privatized Infrastructure: the Build Operate Transfer。沒有紀錄。  new window
10.Cuthbertson, M.(1996)。Quantitative Financial Economics Stock, Bonds and Foreign Exchange。Quantitative Financial Economics Stock, Bonds and Foreign Exchange。沒有紀錄。  new window
11.江前良(1996)。國際BOT方式理論與實務。北京：中國對外經濟貿易出版社。  延伸查詢new window
12.Rowe, W. D.(1997)。An Anatomy of Risk。An Anatomy of Risk。New York, NY。  new window
13.Werner, W.(1991)。Engineering Risks Evaluation and Valuation。Engineering Risks Evaluation and Valuation。沒有紀錄。  new window
14.Roush, F. W.、Kim, K. H.(1987)。Team Theory。Team Theory。Chichester。  new window
15.Orlovski, S. A.(1990)。Fuzzy Goals and Sets of Choices in Two-person Games。Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory。沒有紀錄。  new window
16.Fishburn, P. C.(1990)。Representation of Preferences。The New Palgrave Utility and Probability。沒有紀錄。  new window
圖書論文
1.Gratt, L. B.(1987)。Risk analysis or risk assessment: A proposal for consistent definitions。Uncertainty in risk assessment, risk management and decision making。New York：Plenum Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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