:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:中小企業貸款違約預警模式--以某商業銀行為例
書刊名:文大商管學報
作者:蔡明春鄭青展 引用關係馮淑鈴陳坤志
作者(外文):Tsai, Ming-chunCheng, Ching-chanFeng, Shu-lingChen, Kun-chih
出版日期:2009
卷期:14:1
頁次:頁19-40
主題關鍵詞:中小企業非財務變數邏輯斯迴歸Small and medium enterprisesLoan defaultNon-financial factorLogistic regression
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:65
  • 點閱點閱:123
本研究旨在探討影響中小企業違約貸款之非財務面因素,並藉以建立中小企業貸款違約預警模式。本研究以國內某商業銀行中小企業授信戶爲研究對象,以近似3:1比例取得154戶正常戶及52戶違約戶之相關資料,資料取得後,主要藉由卡方檢定與邏輯斯迴歸進行分析。研究結果發現,在非財務變數方面,不同產業別、成立時間、擔保品、銀行關係、負責人年齡、負責人是否動用現金卡或信用循環額度之企業,其違約比例具有顯著地差異。最後本研究利用此具區別能力之非財務變數爲作爲預測變數,建立之中小企業貸款之違約預警模式,預測能力達85%。此研究結果期望提供金融機構作爲建構中小企業授信風險評估之參考。
The study explores non-financial factors which affect loan default for SMEs (small and medium enterprises), and create a predicting model for SMEs loan risk therewith. The object of this study is the SMEs loan customers of a commercial bank's branches located in Taiwan. The study gets 154 normal cases and 52 default cases by the ratio of 3:1 approximatively. The survey data were analyzed using chi-square test and logistic regression. According to the result of this research, in terms of non-financial factors, the ratio of default businesses were significant differences on the elements of different industries, period of establishment, collateral, relationship with banks, age of the person in charge and whether the person in charge of uses the credit line of cash card or revolving line or not. Finally, this study makes use of the non-financial factors, which have discriminating applicability to be the forecasting factors, and creates a loan default precaution model for SMEs thereby; the accurate ratio of the forecast is more than 85%. We hope the result of this study can help financial institutions to set up their SMEs loan risk evaluation model and adopt some key reference factors therein.
期刊論文
1.陳家彬、江惠櫻、賴怡洵(20030400)。商業銀行對企業授信決策考量因素與授信品質之關係。管理評論,22(2),1-23。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Asamow, E.(1995)。Measuring the Hidden Risk in Corporate。Commercial Lending Review,10,24-32。  new window
3.Sohn, S. Y.、Kim, H. S.(2007)。Random Effects Logistic Regression Model for Default Prediction of Technology Credit Guarantee Fund。European Journal of Operational Research,183(1),472-478。  new window
4.周百隆、郭和益(20060600)。財務風險評估與異常報酬--中國上市公司之實證研究。企業管理學報,69,1-38。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.陳乙文、黃鈴羢(20050100)。影響財務危機預警模型因子之研究。建國科大學報,24(2),153-168。  延伸查詢new window
6.湯惠雯、馮淑敏、令狐雅萍(20050600)。考慮產業訊息下之財務危機預警模式之研究。管理科學與統計決策,2(1),77-91。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Drury, J. C.(1981)。A Study of Industry Financial Ratios。Management Decision,19(1),24-35。  new window
8.Mark, C.、Post, M.、Sharpe, S. A.(1998)。Does Corporate Lending by Banks and Finance Companies Differ? Evidence on Specialization in Private Debt Contracting。Journal of Finance,53,845-878。  new window
9.Wu, C. Y.(2004)。Using non-financial information to predict bankruptcy: A Study of public companies in Taiwan。International Journal of Management,21(2),194-201。  new window
10.黃俊源、郭照榮、江彌修(20080100)。違約的代價:契約違約金存在之合理性。公平交易季刊,16(1),35-55。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.戴錦周、陳研研(20050300)。臺灣商業銀行1994-2002年授信戶逾期還款行為之研究。臺灣金融財務季刊,6(1),119-133。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Keasey, K.、Watson, R.(1987)。Non-Financial Symptoms and The Prediction of Small Company Failure: A Test of ARGENTIs Hypotheses。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,14,335-354。  new window
13.Richardson, F. M.、Kane, G. D.、Lobingier, P.(1998)。The impact of recession on the prediction of corporate failure。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,25(1/2),167-186。  new window
14.黃劭彥、李超雄、洪光宏、吳東憲(20061200)。以經營效率觀點建立臺灣資訊電子業財務危機預警模型。文大商管學報,11(2),1-20。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Gleason, W. B.(1981)。Lending to Automobile Dealerships。Journal of Commercial Bank Lending,63,2-10。  new window
16.林金賢、陳育成、劉沂佩、鄭育書(20040600)。具學習性之模糊專家系統在財務危機預測上之應用。管理學報,21(3),291-309。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.薛立言、張志向(20040600)。信用評等:期間與產業差異分析。中山管理評論,12(2),307-336。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Martin, Daniel(1977)。Early Warning of Bank Failure: a Logit Regression Approach。Journal of Banking and Finance,1(3),249-276。  new window
19.Gentry, James A.、Newbold, Paul、Whitford, David T.(1987)。Funds Flow Components, Financial Ratios, and Bankruptcy。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,14(4),595-606。  new window
20.Mensah, Yaw M.(1984)。An examination of the stationarity of multivariate bankruptcy prediction models: A methodological study。Journal of Accounting Research,22(1),380-395。  new window
21.黃振豊、呂紹強(20001100)。企業財務危機預警模式之研究--以財務及非財務因素構建。當代會計,1(1),19-40。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.Bruderl, J.、Schussler, R.(1990)。Organizational Mortality: The Liabilities of Newness and Adolescence。Administrative Science Quarterly,35(3),530-547。  new window
23.Srinivasan, Venkat、Kim, Yong H.(1987)。Credit Granting: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Procedures。The Journal of Finance,42(3),665-683。  new window
24.Beaver, W. H.(1966)。Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure。Journal of Accounting Research,4(3),71-111。  new window
25.Ohlson, James A.(1980)。Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy。Journal of Accounting Research,18(1),109-131。  new window
26.Altman, Edward I.(1968)。Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy。The Journal of Finance,23(4),589-609。  new window
27.周百隆、陳郁菁、林佳君(20070900)。上海深圳特別處理公司財務風險與危機時程之研究。輔仁管理評論,14(3),91-120。new window  延伸查詢new window
28.Zmijewski, Mark E.(1984)。Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models。Journal of Accounting Research,22(Supplement),59-82。  new window
學位論文
1.胡婉鈞(2005)。建構企業危機預警系統--以台灣電子業為例(碩士論文)。中原大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳柏樫(2006)。非財務信評因素對中小企業融資之探討(碩士論文)。大葉大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳麗芳(2002)。財務艱困公司股票模糊多準則評選模式之研究--以台灣上市上櫃電子公司為例(碩士論文)。義守大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.馮淑鈴(2008)。中小企業貸款違約預警模式之探討(碩士論文)。中華大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.Alves, J. R.(1978)。The prediction of small business failure utilizing financial and nonfinancial data(博士論文)。University of Massachusetts。  new window
6.張國浩(2004)。我國中小企業財務危機預警系統之研究(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.黃重菁(1999)。銀行對中小企業授信考量因素之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.白欽元(2003)。國內中小企業財務危機預警模型之研究(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.金管會銀行局(2006)。金融業務統計輯要。台北:行政院金融監督管理委員會。  延伸查詢new window
2.金融人員研究訓練中心編撰委員會(1999)。銀行授信實務概要。台北:財團法人金融人員研究訓練中心。  延伸查詢new window
3.郭崑謨(1996)。中小企業經營現代化之研究。台北:復文圖書出版社。  延伸查詢new window
4.葉秋南(1996)。美國商業信用管理。台北:財團法人金融聯合徵信中心。  延伸查詢new window
5.Longenecker, J.、Moore, C.、Petty, J.(1997)。Credit Scoring and the Small Business: A Review and the Need for Research。Wisconsin:Association for Small Business and Entrepreneurship。  new window
6.經濟部中小企業處(2007)。2007中小企業白皮書。台北市:經濟部中小企業處。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.中小企業信用保證基金編(2006)。中小企業融資信用保證作業手冊,http://www.smeg.org.tw/doc/95Manual.pdf, 2008/05/04。  延伸查詢new window
2.中華經濟硏究院(2007)。只要撐過五年,中小型製造業存活機率大,http://www.cier.edu.tw/kmportal-deluxe/front/bin/ptdetail.phtml?Category=100102&Part=cNews20070913, 2007/12/29。  延伸查詢new window
3.中華民國銀行公會(1987)。銀行業辦理授信業務信用評等要點,http://www.boaf.gov.tw/site/boaf/public/Attachment/52210425871.doc, 2008/05/01。  延伸查詢new window
4.Kolari, J.,Shin, H.(2003)。Assessing the Profitability and Riskiness of Small Business Lenders,http://www.sba.gov/advo/research/rs229.pdf, 2008/05/05。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE