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題名:結構改變下Black-Scholes與Hull-White評價模型之應用--以臺灣股價指數選擇權為例
書刊名:中華管理學報
作者:陳文典 引用關係陳依兌 引用關係張東生 引用關係林慧芳
作者(外文):Chen, Wen-denChen, Yi-tuiChang, Dong-shangLin, Hwei-fang
出版日期:2009
卷期:10:1
頁次:頁93-106
主題關鍵詞:臺指選擇權結構性改變Black-Scholes模型Hull-White模型GARCH模型TAIEX optionsStructure changeBlock-Scholes modelHull-White modelGARCH model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:17
  • 點閱點閱:38
Black-Scholes模型之波動不變的假設並無法貼切說明實際市場,Hull-White模型因此提出了隨機波動的假設,大幅降低因假設不符合實際造成估計誤差過高的困擾。但Hull-White模型未考慮到市場價格容易受到外部事件衝擊而改變價格的波動路徑因而造成估計誤差;本文以不同的波動假設重新對Black-Scholes 與 Hull-White模型進行探討。本文以Black-Scholes與Hull-White兩模型分別搭配歷史波動與GARCH模型,並分別以F-test與Wald-test進行結構性改變檢定,藉由檢定找出結構變動時間點,重新區分各子區間,並以適合各子區的波動對價格進行估計,分析估計誤差是否有降低,結果發現結構性改變檢定將可找出較適合各子區間的波動,使估計結果更為準確,且在維持Black-Scholes與Hull-White模型的原本假設下,模型的估計誤差明顯減少,甚至在價平、價外及深價外的情況下,Black-Scholes模型的估計誤差低於Hull-White模型的估計誤差,此結果改變過去Hull-White模型優於Black-Scholes模型的說法。
In traditional approaches the parameters of a volatility model are usually assumed to be constant during an empirical study period, which implies that the market structure has not changed over the time. In practice, one can see that the structure change easily happens in a financial (options) market. This phenomenon is intriguing. In conventional approaches we usually remedy the models to improve the performances, and therefore many complex models have been developed, but in practice their improvements are often restricted. This article focuses on the structure change point and provides an alternative thinking to enhance performance. The empirical study shows that even the simple Black-Scholes model can improve its performance radically. This research applies Black-Scholes and Hull-White models on TAIEX options, in which the historical volatility model and GARCH model are used for estimation. The Black-Scholes model's performance is significantly better than when the model did not consider a structure change, especially for deep-out-the-money pricing of call options. The reason could be that the buyers are more sensible than before. In the GARCH model we find one change point. Similar to the historical volatility model, these models which have considered a structure change are significantly better than the others.
期刊論文
1.Scott, L. O.(1997)。Pricing Stock Options in a Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rates: Applications of Fourier Inversion Methods。Mathematical Finance,7(4),345-358。  new window
2.Bates, S.(1996)。Jumps and stochastic volatility: Exchange rate processes implicit in deutsche mark options。Review of financial Studies,9,69-107。  new window
3.許溪南、林昭賢、陳浚泓(20051200)。B-S模式與隨機波動性定價模式之比較:臺指選擇權之實證。中山管理評論,13(4),837-871。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Longstaff, F. A.、Schwartz, E. A.(2001)。Valuing American options by simulation: A simple least-squares approach。Review of Financial Studies,14,113-147。  new window
5.劉美纓、陳昶均(20041200)。不同波動性估計模型下臺指選擇權評價績效之比較。臺灣期貨與衍生性商品學刊,2,108-121。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Hull, John C.、White, A.(1987)。The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities。Journal of Finance,42(2),281-300。  new window
7.Scott, L. O.(1987)。Option Pricing When the Variance Changes Randomly: Theory, Estimation, and an Application。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,22(4),419-438。  new window
8.莊益源、張鐘霖、王祝三(20030600)。波動率模型預測能力的比較--以臺指選擇權為例。臺灣金融財務季刊,4(2),41-63。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Duan, J.-C.(1995)。The GARCH Option Pricing Model。Mathematical Finance,5(1),13-32。  new window
10.Merton, Robert C.(1973)。Theory of Rational Option Pricing。Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science,4(1),141-183。  new window
11.Black, Fischer、Scholes, Myron S.(1973)。The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities。Journal of Political Economy,81(3),637-654。  new window
12.Glosten, Lawrence R.、Jagannathan, Ravi、Runkle, David E.(1993)。On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility on the Nominal Excess Returns on Stocks。Journal of Finance,48(5),1779-1801。  new window
13.徐清俊、王國強(2005)。台股期貨價格與交易量、到期期間波動反應之研究-GJR-GARCH(1,1)模型之應用。台灣銀行季刊,56(2),230-244。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Amin, K.、Jarrow, R.(1992)。Pricing options on risky assets in a stochastic interest rate economy。Mathematical Finance,2,217-237。  new window
15.Heston, S. L.(1993)。A Closed-Form solution for options with stochastic volatility with application to bond and currency options。Review of Financial Studies,6,327-343。  new window
16.Kim, S. J.、Sheen, J.(2006)。Interventions in the Yen-dollar spot market: A story of price, volatility and volume。Journal of Banking and Finance,30,3191-3214。  new window
17.Niels, H.、Antonic, M.、Andreu, S.(2005)。Measurement errors and outliers in seasonal unit root test。Journal of Econometrics,127,103-128。  new window
18.Stentoft, Lars(2005)。Pricing American options when the underlying asset follows GARCH processes。Journal of Empirical Finance,12(4),576-611。  new window
19.Thierry, A.、Loredana, U. R.、Jean-Benoit, G.、Julien, B.(2008)。Robust outlier detection for asia-pacific stock index returns。Journal of International Financial Markets,18(4),326-343。  new window
20.Wiggins, J. B.(1987)。Option values under stochastic volatility: Theory and empirical evidence。Journal of Financial Economics,19,351-372。  new window
學位論文
1.關旭東(2004)。隨機波動度下選擇權評價之實證--以台灣股價指數選擇權為例(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.台灣證券交易所(2008)。台灣加權股價指數,http://www.tse.com.tw/ch/index.php。  延伸查詢new window
2.中央銀行(2008)。銀行同業拆款利率,http://www.cbc.gov.tw/。  延伸查詢new window
3.台灣期貨交易所(2008)。台灣股價指數選擇權,http://www.taifex.com.tw/。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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