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題名:波動性模型之評價與避險
書刊名:商管科技季刊
作者:王毓敏楊嘉銘謝志正林芝榕
作者(外文):Wang, Yu-MinYang, Chia-MingHsieh, Chih-ChengLin, Tzu-Jung
出版日期:2007
卷期:8:3
頁次:頁337-368
主題關鍵詞:歷史波動性隱含波動性平滑後的歷史波動性臺股指數選擇權GARCHHistorical volatilityImplied volatilityAd hoc B-STaiwan index option
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:22
  • 點閱點閱:25
本文以台股指數選擇權為對象,使用歷史波動性模型、隱含波動性模型、EGARCH(1,1)模型及平滑後的歷史波動性模型,來探討不同波動性模型的評價誤差與避險績效,並分析造成評價誤差的原因。本文的實證發現,在評價誤差方面,整體而言,隱含波動性模型對買權及賣權的評價誤差最小,隱含波動性模型之理論價格低估了市場價格;而歷史波動性模型、EGARCH(1,1)模型及平滑後的歷史波動性模型之理論價格則大多高估了市場價格;接著,在評價誤差與金融特性關係方面,各波動性模型之評價誤差與價內價外程度、股價指數報酬率、股價指數波動性、距到期日及無風險利率等因素,大多具有顯著的線性關係。最後,在避險誤差方面,當其他條件不變下,距到期日天數越短者,其避險誤差越小。整體而言,避險期間對避險誤差的影響並不一致,而採delta動態避險策略時,隱含波動性模型之避險績效最佳。
This study compares the valuation errors and hedging performances of historical volatility model, implied volatility model, EGARCH (1,1) model and Ad hoc BS model for the Taiwan Index Option (TXO). First of all, the valuation errors in TXO of the BS-IV model are the smallest among all volatility models. In the whole, the BS-IV (implied volatility) model underprices the market value, BS-HV (historical volatility), BS-EV (EGARCH (1,1)) and Ad hoc BS model overprice the market value respectively. Next, there exist the linear relationships between the valuation errors and moneyness in TXO mostly. At last, in view of hedging errors, the other thing being equal, the shorter is the maturity, the smaller is the hedging error. On the whole, the impacts of the hedging periods on the hedging errors are not consistent. Adopting the delta dynamic hedging strategy, the hedging performances of the implied volatility model are the best ones.
期刊論文
1.聶建中、陳芾文、王友珊(20031100)。金融機構承做選擇權的模型風險與市場風險。風險管理學報,5(3),295-317。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Yung, H.、Zhang, H.(2003)。An Empirical Investigation of the GARCH Option Pricing Model: Hedging Performance。Journal of Futures Market,23,1191-1207。  new window
3.Bakshi, G.、Cao, C.、Chen, Z.(1997)。Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models。Journal of Finance,52(5),2003-2049。  new window
4.Jorion, P.(1995)。Predicting volatility in foreign exchange market。The Journal of Finance,50,507-528。  new window
5.Lamoureux, Christopher G.、Lastrapes, William D.(1993)。Forecasting Stock-return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities。The Review of Financial Studies,6(2),293-326。  new window
6.Chen, R. R.、Palmon, O.、Wald, J.(2003)。What is behind the Smile? Fat Tails or Transaction Costs。Journal of Futures Markets。  new window
7.Szakmary, A.、Ors, E.、Kim, J. K.、Davidson, W. N.(2003)。The Predictive Power of Implied Volatility: Evidence from 35 Futures Markers。Journal of Banking and Finance,27,2151-2175。  new window
8.Britten-Jones, M.、Neuberger, A.。Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility。Journal of Finance,55,839-866。  new window
9.Heynen, Ronald、Kemna, Angelien、Vorst, Ton(1994)。Analysis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,29(1),31-56。  new window
10.Jiang, George J.、Tian, Yisong S.(2005)。The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content。Review of Financial Studies,18(4),1305-1342。  new window
11.Rubinstein, Mark(1994)。Implied binomial trees。Journal of Finance,49(3),771-818。  new window
12.莊益源、張鐘霖、王祝三(20030600)。波動率模型預測能力的比較--以臺指選擇權為例。臺灣金融財務季刊,4(2),41-63。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Chiras, Donald P.、Manaster, Steven(1978)。The Information Content of Option Prices and a Test of Market Efficiency。Journal of Financial Economics,6(2/3),213-234。  new window
14.Dumas, Bernard、Fleming, Jeff、Whaley, Robert E.(1998)。Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests。Journal of Finance,53(6),2059-2106。  new window
15.Heston, Steven L.、Nandi, Salkat(2000)。A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model。The Review of Financial Studies,13(3),585-625。  new window
16.Black, Fischer、Scholes, Myron S.(1973)。The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities。Journal of Political Economy,81(3),637-654。  new window
17.邱建良、魏志良、吳佩珊、邱哲修(20040600)。TAIFEX與MSCI臺股指數期貨與現貨直接避險策略之研究。商管科技季刊,5(2),169-184。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Nelson, Daniel B.(1991)。Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,59(2),347-370。  new window
研究報告
1.Barone-Adesi, G.、Whaley, R. E.(1985)。Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values。Institute for Financial Research, University of Alberta。  new window
2.Teoman, T.(2002)。A Multi-Perspective Assessment of Implied Volatility Using S&P 100 NASDAQ Index Options。  new window
 
 
 
 
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