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題名：Waltz制衡假設之檢視：以波斯灣三次衝突為例
書刊名：政治科學論叢
作者：陳文生
作者(外文)：Chen, Wen-sheng
出版日期：2009
卷期：40
頁次：頁43-79
主題關鍵詞：瓦爾茲；制衡；權力平衡；結構現實主義；單極體系；波斯灣；美國；Kenneth N. Waltz；Balance of power；Balancing；Structural realism；Unipolarity；Persian Gulf；U. S.
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:11
  • 點閱點閱:32
制衡假設是新現實主義大師瓦爾茲解釋國際體系之權力平衡重複發生的重要根據，然而國際體系在冷戰結束後形成以美國為主導的單極體系，但其他國際強權卻未對美國權力集中的情形進行制衡。本論文研究冷戰前後發生於波斯灣的三次戰爭，亦發現冷戰後的兩次波灣戰爭中，其他國際強權均未對美國採取制衡行動。本論文分析二級國際強權未在波斯灣進行制衡的原因，並從相對權力地位及體系層次之差異的角度認為，此等現象尚不足以論證瓦爾茲的理論有誤。此外，本論文也剖析瓦爾茲有關單極體系下之制衡及回復平衡的論述，藉以重新釐清其簡約理論的內涵與特質，同時也探討其他新現實主義者對制衡行為的解釋，特別是攻－守權衡論、利益平衡論及威脅平衡論等多變因分析，並評估他們對瓦爾茲理論的補充效果。
The balancing assumption is the hard core of Kenneth N. Waltz’s explanation of how systemic balances of power form recurrently. Although the international political system has become unipolar since the end of the Cold War, great power balancing against US’s unbalanced power has yet to occur. This paper investigates three Persian Gulf conflicts and finds that great powers did not engage in balancing against US during the two Persian Gulf conflicts that broke out after the end of the Cold War. The paper analyzes why balancing behavior was absent, and suggests that this phenomenon is insufficient to falsify Waltz’s theory mainly because the conflicts occurred at the regional subsystem level as opposed at Waltz’s structural level of analysis. Furthermore, this article examines Waltz’s arguments about balancing behavior and balanced outcomes in order to gain a clearer understanding of his parsimonious theory. The paper also discusses other neorealist explanations of balancing behavior, especially the theories of offense-defense balance, balance of interests, and balance of threats, and evaluates whether they could complement Waltz’s theory.
期刊論文
1.Elman, Colin、Elman, Miriam F.、Schroeder, Paul W.(1995)。History vs. Neo-realism: A Second Look。International Security，20(1)，182-195。  new window
2.Waltz, K.(1990)。Realist Thought and Neo-Realist Theory。Journal of International Affairs，44，24-56。  new window
3.Wohlforth, William C.(1994)。Realism and the End of the Cold War。International Security，19(3)，91-129。  new window
4.Waltz, Kenneth Neal(1996)。International Politics is Not Foreign Policy。Security Studies，6(1)，54-57。  new window
5.Schroeder, Paul(1994)。Historical Reality vs. Neo-Realist Theory。International Security，19(1)，108-148。  new window
6.Layne, Christopher(1993)。The Unipolar Illusion: Why the New Power Will Rise。International Security，17(4)，5-51。  new window
7.Legro, Jeffrey W.、Moravcsik, Andrew(1999)。Is Anybody Still a Realist?。International Security，24(2)，5-55。  new window
8.Gaddis, John Lewis(1992)。International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War。International Security，17(3)，5-58。  new window
9.Brooks, Stephen G.、Wohlforth, William C.(2005)。Hard Times for Soft Balancing。International Security，30(1)，72-108。  new window
10.Christensen, Thomas J.、Snyder, Jack(1990)。Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity。International Organization，44(2)，137-168。  new window
11.Walt, Stephen M.(2005)。Taming American Power。Foreign Affairs，84(5)，105-120。  new window
12.Schweller, Randall L.(1993)。Tripolarity and the Second World War。International Studies Quarterly，37(1)，73-103。  new window
13.Brooks, Stephen G.、Wohlforth, William C.(2002)。American Primacy in Perspective。Foreign Affairs，81(4)，20-33。  new window
14.Wohlforth, William C.(1999)。The Stability of A Unipolar World。International Security，24(1)，5-41。  new window
15.Huntington, Samuel P.(1999)。The Lonely Superpower。Foreign Affairs，78(2)，35-49。  new window
16.Schmidt, Brian C.(2004)。Realism as Tragedy。Review of International Studies，30(3)，427-441。  new window
17.Waltz, Kenneth N.(2000)。Structural Realism After the Cold War。International Security，25(1)，5-41。  new window
18.陳文生(20040500)。美國推動聯合國安理會1441號決議案分析。問題與研究，43(3)，23-47。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Waltz, Kenneth N.(1993)。The Emerging Structure of International Politics。International Security，18(2)，44-79。  new window
20.陳文生(20050300)。九一一後美國之霸權治理策略：以伊拉克為例。政治科學論叢，23，169-200。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.Schweller, Randall L.(1994)。Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In。International Security，19(1)，72-107。  new window
22.Lieber, Keir A.、Alexander, Gerard(2005)。Waiting for Balancing: Why the World Is Not Pushing Back。International Security，30(1)，109-139。  new window
23.Pape, Robert Anthony(2005)。Soft Balancing Against the United States。International Security，30(1)，7-45。  new window
24.陳文生(20030300)。伊朗接受聯合國安理會第598號決議之決策分析。問題與研究，42(2)，115-134。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.Mastanduno, Michael(1997)。Preserving the Unipolar Moment: Realist Theories and U.S. Grand Strategy after the Cold War。International Security，21(4)，49-88。  new window
26.Krauthammer, Charles(1990)。The Unipolar Moment。Foreign Affairs: America and the World，70(1)，23-33。  new window
27.Paul, T. V.(2005)。Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primary。International Security，30(1)，46-71。  new window
28.陳文生(2005)。〈布希政府反恐安全戰略及其挑戰：伊拉克經驗的檢討〉。《政治科學論叢》，25，1-28。  延伸查詢new window
29.Lebow, Richard Ned.(1994)。“The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War,Waltz and the Failure of Realism.”。International Organization，48(2)，249-277。  new window
30.Posen, Barry R.(2003)。“Command of the Commons: The Military Foundations of U.S. Hegemony.”。International Security，28(1)，5-46。  new window
31.Tavakkoli, Seyed Mohsen.(1995)。“United States Perception of Persian Gulf Security.”。Echo of Islam。  new window
32.Vasquez, John A.(1997)。“The Realist Paradigm and Degenerative vs.Progressive Research Program: An Appraisal of Neotraditional Research on Waltz’s Balancing Proposition.”。American Political Science Review，91(4)，899-912。  new window
會議論文
1.陳文生(2003)。〈先制攻擊？美國出兵伊拉克之正當性與影響評估〉。台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.United Nations Security Council.(1990)。Resolution 678。  new window
學位論文
1.陳文生(2001)。伊朗伊斯蘭共和國之海灣政策, 1979-1993(博士論文)。國立臺灣大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Waltz, Kenneth N.(1979)。Theory of International Politic。Reading, Mass：Addison-Wesley Pub. Co。  new window
2.Brown, Chris(1997)。Understanding International Relations。London：Macmillan Press Ltd。  new window
3.Snyder, Jack L.(1991)。Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition。Ithaca, New York：Cornell University Press。  new window
4.Russett, Bruce、Antholis, William、Ember, Carol R.、Ember, Melvin、Maoz, Zeev(1993)。Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World。Princeton, N.J.：Princeton University Press。  new window
5.Kaplan, Morton A.(1957)。System and Process in International Politics。New York, NY：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
6.Claude, Inis L. Jr.(1962)。Power and International Relations。New York, NY：Random House。  new window
7.Walt, Stephen M.(1987)。The Origins of Alliances。Cornell University Press。  new window
8.Mearsheimer, John J.、Alterman, G.(2001)。The Tragedy of Great Power Politics。W. W. Norton & Company。  new window
9.Keohane, Robert O.(1984)。After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy。Princeton University Press。  new window
10.周煦(2001)。《冷戰後美國的中東政策： 1989-2000 》。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
11.Acharya, Amitav.(1989)。Military Strategy in the Gulf: Origins and Evolution under the Carter and Reagan Administrations。London。  new window
12.Chubin, Shahram.(1982)。Security in the Persian Gulf: The Role of Outside Powers。London。  new window
13.Grieco, Joseph M.(1997)。“Realist International Theory and the Study of World Politics.”。New Thinking in International Relations Theory。Colorado。  new window
14.Levy, Jack S.(2003)。“Balances and Balancing: Concepts, Propositions, and Research Design.”。Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate eds。New Jersey。  new window
15.Strange, Susan.(1989)。“Toward a Theory of Transnational Empire.”。Global Changes and Theoretical Challenges。Massachusetts。  new window
16.Vasquez, John A.(2003)。“The New Debate on Balancing Power: A Reply to My Critics.”。Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate。New Jersey。  new window
17.Walt, Stephen M.(1991)。“Alliance Formation in Southwest Asia: Balancing and Bandwagoning in Cold War Competition.”。Dominoes and Bandwagons。New York。  new window
18.Elman, Colin(2003)。“Introduction: Appraising Balance of Power Theory.”。Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate。New Jersey。  new window
其他
1.Carter, Jimmy.(1980)。The State of the Union Address。  new window
圖書論文
1.Baldwin, David A.(1993)。Neoliberalism, Neorealism, and World Politics。Neorealism and Neoliberialism: The Contemporary Debate。New York：Columbia University Press。  new window
2.Grieco, Joseph(1993)。Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism。Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate。New York：Columbia University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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