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題名:毒品施用者再犯危險因子分析及預測
書刊名:犯罪學期刊
作者:黃春美
作者(外文):Huang, Chuen-mei
出版日期:2010
卷期:13:1
頁次:頁27-79
主題關鍵詞:受戒治人再犯率羅吉斯迴歸存活分析Cox比例危險模式再犯風險Drug abuserRecidivism rateLogistic regressionSurvival analysisCox proportional hazard modelRecidivism hazard
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(3) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:6
  • 點閱點閱:124
毒品濫用問題可說是當前國內、甚至全世界最嚴重的公共衛生和社會問題之一,毒品再犯的嚴重性一直是我國政府致力改善的目標。爲提供法務部所屬矯正機關發展本土戒治處遇模式和政府部門制定毒品相關政策的參考,本文蒐集民國87至96年全國戒治所實際出所之受戒治人,追蹤至96年底以了解其出所後影響再次施用毒品之行爲特性。研究發現施用毒品者其再犯機率與性別、毒品級別、年齡、職業、教育程度和經濟情況有關,再犯之高危險群爲男性、施用一級毒品、無業、教育程度爲「國中高中」以下和經濟狀況較佳者,至於年齡則以18~30歲之再犯率最高。以再犯時間來看,受戒治人在出所後的前兩年,其再犯率有急速增加的現象,2年後至第5年有減緩趨勢,5年之後達穩定狀態;至於再犯風險高峰期則在出所後6個月至1年。另外,不同特性之再犯風險有顯著差異:男性再犯之風險高於女性,一級毒品再犯風險高於二級毒品,年齡則以「18~30歲」再犯風險最高,「55歲以上」最低;再犯風險在職業、教育程度、婚姻狀況和家庭經濟上的差異不大。
Drug abuse is one of the most serious public health and social problems not only in Taiwan but also in the world. Effort on alleviating the drug recidivism has been an everlasting project for government in Taiwan. In order to provide Ministry of Justice the necessary information in developing local rehabilitation treatment model and in formulating drug-related policy, data on drug abusers who finished treatment and were released from treatment centers from 1998 to 2007 were collected. These drug abusers were traced to the end of 2007 so that their behaviors and characteristics of recidivism could be unveiled. Through logistic regression, Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we found that gender, level of drugs used, age, employment status, education background and economic status are the risk factors of recidivism for drug abusers, who with the characteristics being male, level 1 drugs users, jobless, education background under senior high school and better economic status had higher recidivism rates. As to age, those with age in between 18 to 30 have the highest recidivism rate. As far as recidivism time is concerned, the recidivism rate increases rapidly in the first two years when drug abusers were released from drug treatment centers. From the third year on, the recidivism rate gradually slows down and approaches to a stable level after five years. As to recidivism hazard, its peak occurs at 6(superscript th) month and remains high to one year. Different characteristics have significantly different recidivism hazard: male have higher recidivism hazard than female, level 1 drug users are higher than level 2. For age, age between 18 and 30 has the highest recidivism hazard, and age over 55 is the lowest. The discrepancies of recidivism hazard for different employment status, education background, marriage status and economic status are small.
期刊論文
1.Benedict, W.、Reed, L. H.、Corzine, J.(1998)。Clean up and go straight: effects of drug treatment of recidivism among felony probationers。American Journal of Criminal Justice,22(1),169-187。  new window
2.Gainey, R. R.、Payne, K. B.、O'Toole, M.(2000)。The relationships between time in jail, time on electronic monitoring, and recidivism: an event history analysis of a jail-based program。Justice Quarterly,17(3),733-752。  new window
3.Cox, D. R.(1972)。Regression models and life-tables (with discussion)。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B: Methodological,34,187-220。  new window
4.Kaplan, E. L.、Meier, Paul(1958)。Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations。Journal of the American Statistical Association,53(282),457-481。  new window
5.江淑娟、張景瑞、孫效儒、陳炯旭、詹宏裕、陳為堅(20060300)。男海洛因勒戒犯之再犯率的危險因子。臺灣精神醫學,20(1),32-43。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.黃徵男、周石棋、陳瓊梅(2007)。《煙毒犯的預測再犯因子分析--以COX比例模式分析性別與使用毒品類別交互影響》。中央警察大學執法新知論衡,3(1),23~41。  延伸查詢new window
7.Chiang, S. C., Chan, H. Y., Chen, C. H., Sun, H. J., Chang, H. J., Chen, W. J., Lin, S. K. and Chen, C. K.(2006)。Recidivism among male subjects incarcerated for illicit drug use in Taiwan。Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences,60,444-451。  new window
8.Jurik, N. C.(1983)。Economics of female recidivism.A study of TARP (Transitional Aid Research Project) women ex-offenders。Criminology,21(3),503-522。  new window
9.Kruttschnitt, C., Uggen, C. and Shelton, K.(2000)。Predicators of desistance among sex offenders: the interaction of formal and informal social controls。Justice Quarterly,17(1),61-88。  new window
學位論文
1.王儷婷(2005)。我國女性毒品再犯之實證研究(碩士論文)。中央警察大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.賴擁連(2000)。臺灣地區毒品犯罪者戒治處遇成效之研究(碩士論文)。中央警察大學,桃園。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳妙平(2005)。成年男性藥物成癮者復發決定因素之探究--以臺北戒治所為例(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.董淑鈴(2000)。成年女性藥物濫用者復發歷程及其相關因素之研究(碩士論文)。國立高雄師範大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.陳玟如(2004)。藥物濫用者復發歷程之研究(碩士論文)。慈濟大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.顏正芳(2003)。青少年使用安非他命研究:濫用與復發預測相關因子之調查(博士論文)。高雄醫學大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.林宗穎(2002)。一般化犯罪理論對受保護管束之毒品犯罪者再犯之解釋(碩士論文)。靜宜大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.柳正信(2005)。《我國少年毒品再犯社會心理因素之研究》,新北市。  延伸查詢new window
9.陳紹基(2003)。《年輕非法藥物使用犯中海洛因之使用》,台北市。  延伸查詢new window
10.劉峻豪(2008)。《探討監獄及戒治所成年男性非法藥物再犯行為的相關因素》,台中市。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Petersilia, J.、Turner, S.、Kahan, J.、Peterson, J.(1985)。Granting felons probation: public risks and alternatives。Santa Monica, CA:RAND。  new window
2.Hosmer, D. W.、Lemeshow, S.(1989)。Applied logistic regression。New York:John Wiley and Sons。  new window
3.Siegel, Larry J.(2002)。Criminology: The Core。Wadsworth Thomson Learning:West Wadworth Publishing Co.。  new window
4.D. Collett.(1994)。Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research.1st Edition。  new window
5.McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J. A.(1995)。Generalized Linear Model.2nd Edition。  new window
其他
1.黃春美(2009)。《毒癮,真的愈陷愈深》。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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