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題名：不動產估價師理性行為之探討
書刊名：住宅學報
作者：陳奉瑤 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chen, Fong-yao
出版日期：2011
卷期：20:2
頁次：頁47-60
主題關鍵詞：部分調整；估價師行為；不動產證券化；估價平滑；Partial adjustment；Appraisal behavior；REITs；Smoothing
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:24
  • 點閱點閱:57
金融海嘯席捲世界造成重大傷害，突顯出經濟景氣循環中繁榮階段的過度樂觀與泡沫化，其似乎隱現投資人具動物本性，有追高助跌的行為，也引發對估價平滑評判的再省思。過去探討估價平滑之相關文獻多以總體資料切入，並將該現象歸因於估價師不能確實掌握市場變動，而直接尋求去平滑的方法。本文有別於過去多數相關研究，改由個別估價資料進行觀察，以 T-REITs重新估價案例為對象，依循 Quan & Quigley(1991)部分調整模型之理念，以迴歸分析衡量估值與當期市場價格和前期估值之關係，判斷部分調整的程度；並藉由信心函數的建立，進一步觀察部分調整行為是否理性。實證結果顯示，市場噪音越大，估價師賦予市場資訊的權重越小，驗證估價師確有部分調整行為且應屬理性行為。
Previous studies defined appraisal smoothing as reduced volatility or the lag structure of the appraisal-based index as compared to the transaction-based index. Most of these studies examined data at an aggregate level and used extensive data sets in order to de-smooth the appraisal-based index. This paper aims to observe smoothing behavior among appraisers in Taiwan. It uses the re-appraisal data of T-REITs and modifies the partial adjustment model, developed by Quan & Quigley(1991), to observe smoothing issues. The results show that partial adjustments have existed and that T-REITs appraisers attach less weights to market information because of market noise.
期刊論文
1.江穎慧(20090600)。不動產自動估價與估價師個別估價之比較--以比較法之案例選取、權重調整與估值三階段差異分析。住宅學報，18(1)，39-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Wolverton, Marvin Lloyd、Gallimore, Paul(1999)。Client Feedback and the Role of the Appraiser。Journal of Real Estate Research，18(3)，415-431。  new window
3.Kinnard, William N.、Lenk, Margarita M.、Worzala, Elaine M.(1997)。Client Pressure in the Commercial Appraisal Industry: How Prevalent Is It?。Journal of Property Valuation and Investment，15(3)，233-244。  new window
4.Geltner, D.(1989)。Bias in Appraisal-Based Returns。Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association，17(3)，338-352。  new window
5.Hansz, J. Andrew(2004)。Prior Transaction Price Induced Smoothing: Testing and Calibrating the Quan-Quigley Model at the Disaggregate Level。Journal of Property Research，21(4)，321-336。  new window
6.Quan, Daniel C.、Quigley, John M.(1991)。Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets。Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，4(2)，127-146。  new window
7.Levy, D.、Schuck, E.(1999)。The Influence of Clients on Valuations。Journal of Property Investment and Finance，17(4)，380-400。  new window
8.陳奉瑤、楊依蓁(20071200)。個別估價與大量估價之準確性分析。住宅學報，16(2)，67-84。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Clayton, J.、Geltner, D.、Hamilton, S. W.(2001)。Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuations: Evidence from Individual Appraisals。Real Estate Economics，29(3)，337-360。  new window
10.Diaz, J.(1997)。An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimate on Appraisal Judgment。Journal of Real Estate Research，13(1)，57-66。  new window
11.Diaz, J.、Wolverton, M. L.(1998)。A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis。Real Estate Economics，26(2)，349-358。  new window
12.洪鴻智、張能政(20060600)。不動產估價人員之價值探索過程：估價程序與參考點的選擇。建築與規劃學報，7(1)，71-90。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Kahneman, Daniel、Tversky, Amos(1973)。On the psychology of prediction。Psychological Review，80(4)，237-251。  new window
14.Geltner, D.(1989)。Estimating Real Estate’s Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns。Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association，17(4)，463-481。  new window
15.Brown, G. R.、Matysiak, G. A.(1998)。Valuation Smoothing without Temporal Aggregation。Journal of Property Research，15(2)，89-103。  new window
16.Chen, Fong-Yao、Yu, Shi-Ming(2009)。Client Influence on Valuation: Does Language Matter? A Comparative Analysis between Taiwan and Singapore。Journal of Property Investment and Finance，27(1)，25-41。  new window
17.Cole, R.、Guilkey, D.、Miles, M.(1986)。Toward an Assessment of the Reliability of Commercial Appraisals。The Appraisal Journal，54(3)，422-432。  new window
18.Diaz, J.、Hansz, J. A.(1997)。How Valuers Use the Value Opinions of Others。Journal of Property Valuation and Investment，15(3)，256-260。  new window
19.Fisher, J.、Miles, M.、Webb, R.(1999)。How Reliable are Commercial Property Appraisals? Another Look。Real Estate Finance，16(3)，9-15。  new window
20.Geltner, David Michael(1991)。Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns。The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，4(3)，327-345。  new window
21.Hansz, J. Andrew、Diaz, Julian III(2001)。Valuation Bias in Commercial Appraisal: A Transaction Price Feedback Experiment。Real Estate Economics，29(4)，553-565。  new window
22.Hendershott, Patric H.(1996)。Rental Adjustment and Valuation in Overbuilt Markets: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market。Journal of Urban Economics，39(1)，51-67。  new window
23.Hendershott, Patric H.(2000)。Property Asset Bubbles: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market。Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，20(1)，67-81。  new window
24.Ibbotson, R.、Siegel, L. B.(1984)。Real Estate Return: A Comparison with Other Investment。Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association，12，219-242。  new window
25.Lai, T. Y.、Wang, K.(1998)。Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of Story。Real Estate Economics，26(3)，511-535。  new window
26.Mcallister, Pat、Baum, Andrew、Crosby, Neil、Gallimore, Paul、Gray, Adelaide(2003)。Appraiser Behaviour and Appraisal Smoothing: Some Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence。Journal of Property Research，20(3)，261-280。  new window
27.Sivitanidou, R.(2002)。Office Rent Processes: The Case of U.S. Metropolitan Markets。Real Estate Economics，30(2)，317-344。  new window
研究報告
1.Geltner, D.(1998)。Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story-A Comment。  new window
學位論文
1.張能政(2004)。不動產估價行為研究--行為理論之應用(碩士論文)。國立臺北大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.CMCCU- SINYI Research Center for Real Estate(2009)。台灣地區房地產年鑑。台北。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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