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題名:臺美匯率、相對物價之因果與時差之探討--向量自我回歸模型之應用
書刊名:華人前瞻研究
作者:柯勝揮 引用關係徐俊智
作者(外文):Ko, Sheng-hueiHsu, Chun-chih
出版日期:2012
卷期:8:2
頁次:頁1-13
主題關鍵詞:向量自我回歸模型購買力平價說匯率相對物價因果關係時差Vector Autoregression modelPurchasing power parityExchange rateRelative priceCausalityTime lag
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:14
  • 點閱點閱:66
台灣是高貿易依存度的困家,以持續發展對外貿易創造台灣經濟奇績。長期以來,美國不論在外交、經濟貿易上,一直都是台灣重要的策略夥伴之一,美國亦提供台灣廣大的消費市場。過去許多文獻著眼探討影響台美貿易因素,並根據國際貿易與國際金融理論,提出匯率係影響相對物價之重要因素。然而,根據購買力平價說(簡稱PPP理論),在長期情況下,若PPP成立則兩國相對物價將是影響匯率的主要因素,因此,本文擬針對台美匯率與相對物價之因果關係及時差等進行分析。本文係利用時間序列分析方法中之向量自我回歸模型分析台美匯率與相對物價之因果關係及時差。本研究以台灣匯率自由化之後的1991年1月至2011年12月之月資料為研究期間。本研究結果發現名目匯率係影響相對物價之因,當名目匯率變動將顯著影響兩國的相對物價,且約需七個月才能促使相對物價作較全面的調整。
Taiwan is high trade dependence country, by continuing to develop foreign trade created Taiwan's economic miracle. For a long time, the United States whether in diplomatic, economic and trade, Taiwan has been an important strategy of one of the partners, the United States also provide Taiwan vast consumption market. Many papers focus to explore Taiwan-US trade factors, and according to the international trade and international financial theory, puts forward exchange rate is an important determinate of relative prices. However, according to theory of purchasing power parity, in the long run, if the two countries established P.P.P phase, relative price will be the main factor that affects exchange rate. Therefore, this article plans in view of the causality and time lag of the Taiwan-US exchange rate and relative price.This article is using time series analysis method of the Vector Autoregression model to analysis the causality and time lag of Taiwan-US exchange rate and relative price .The beginning of this empirical data is after the liberalization of the exchange rate in Taiwan in January 1991 to December 2011. The results of this study found that nominal exchange rate will affect the relative price, when the nominal exchange rate changes will significantly influence the relative prices of the two countries, and it needs seven months to make relative price for comprehensive adjustment.
期刊論文
1.柯勝揮、柯亮群(20070700)。臺美匯率、物價之因果與時差之探討--頻率範疇分析法之應用。商學學報. 空大,15,79-94。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Cassel, G.(191603)。The Present Situation of the Foreign Exchange。Journal of Economic Journal,26(101),62-65。  new window
3.Schnabl, G.、Baur, D.(2002)。Purchasing power parity: Granger causality tests for the yen- dollar exchange rate。Japan and the World Economy,14(4),425-444。  new window
4.Cheng, B. S.(1999)。Beyond the purchasing power parity: testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates。Journal of International Money and Finance,18(6),911-924。  new window
5.柯勝揮、吳雪伶(20091200)。臺日匯率、物價之因果與時差之探討--多變數光譜分析法之應用。文大商管學報,14(2),53-69。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Alias, Emmy Farha(2012)。The impact of Exchange Rate on Tomato Trade: Evidence from。Malaysia, Asian Social Science,8(6),20-25。  new window
7.Sijia、Buongiomo(2010)。Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products。Canadian Journal of Forest Research,40(11),2069-2081。  new window
8.Balassa, Bela(1964)。The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal。Journal of Political Economy,72(6),584-596。  new window
9.聶建中、林景春、詹凱婷(20040900)。兩岸三地股價聯動性研究。輔仁管理評論,11(2),63-82。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Akaike, Hirotsugu(1974)。A new look at the statistical model identification。IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,19(6),716-723。  new window
學位論文
1.李家豪(2006)。東亞地區購買力平價說之驗證--實質匯率之結構轉變(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.紀燕翎(2002)。購買力平價說對匯率動態解釋能力?-不同開發程度國家匯率實證結果(碩士論文)。國立暨南國際大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.洪進明(2001)。由北美自由貿易協定論美洲區域經濟之整合(博士論文)。中國文化大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.詹傑智(2000)。NAFTA對台灣重要出口產業之影響(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.楊傑宇(2011)。金磚五國的購買力平價--非線性傅立葉函數之定態檢定(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Husted, Steven、Melvin, Michael(2007)。International Economics。華泰書局。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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