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題名:部分調整行為之估價平滑--以地價基準地重估價為例
書刊名:臺灣土地研究
作者:游適銘
作者(外文):You, Shih-ming
出版日期:2014
卷期:17:1
頁次:頁1-21
主題關鍵詞:估價平滑部分調整重估價地價基準地Appraisal smoothingPartial adjustmentRevaluationLand value benchmark
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:53
  • 點閱點閱:100
相較於以往探討估價平滑之文獻,多採總體層級(aggregate level)方式探討,藉估值指數變異數小於成交價格指數變異數進行平滑之研究;本文則以個體層級為出發點,蒐集全國各直轄市、縣(市)地價基準地之重估價資料,觀察估價平滑與部分調整行為之情形。首先參考Quan and Quigley(1991)提出之理性調整模型分析市場價格參考點與當期估值之關係,探討估價人員是否因信心不足採取較保守的部分調整更新策略,以至於估價平滑現象產生。研究結果發現,整體估價之信心參數為0.59,相對大於前次估值之權重0.399,具有部分調整現象。其次,就市場信心參數較低之臺中市,不同估價方法估值標準差之比例每增加1%,信心程度將減少0.11。估價年資每提高一年,信心程度將增加0.0219。代表基準地相較於一般基準地,信心程度增加0.74。
Opposed to past literature studying the appraisal smoothing, which discussed the reduced volatility and/or lagging in the appraisal based index compared to a contemporaneous transaction based index from aggregate level, this paper observed the appraisal smoothing caused by partial adjustment from individual level using revaluation data on land value benchmark nationwide. By reference of rational adjustment model proposed by Quan and Quigley (1991) analyzing the relationship between the market transaction reference point and contemporaneous appraisal, this paper researched whether appraisal smoothing occur or not due to partial adjustment strategy for that valuers are lack of confidence and being conservative. The empirical results showed that the overall appraisal confidence factor is 0.59, which is greater than the weight, 0.399, of the prior appraisal. The partial adjustment behavior existed. Moreover, for Taichung city, whose market confidence parameter is lower, the confidence factor decreased 0.11 when the standard deviation ratio of different appraisal from approaches increased 1%. The confidence factor increased 0.0219 if the appraisal career increased one year. The confidence factor increased 0.74 from the representative land value benchmark opposed to the base, ordinary land value benchmark.
期刊論文
1.江穎慧(20090600)。不動產自動估價與估價師個別估價之比較--以比較法之案例選取、權重調整與估值三階段差異分析。住宅學報,18(1),39-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.陳奉瑤(20111200)。不動產估價師理性行為之探討。住宅學報,20(2),47-60。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.游適銘、張金鶚(20110600)。買賣實例比較法實例權重之分析與模式建立。都市與計劃,38(2),147-169。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Geltner, David Michael、Graff, Richard A.、Young, Michael S.(1994)。Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database。Journal of Real Estate Research,9(4),403-419。  new window
5.Fox, C. R.、Tversky, A.(1995)。Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance。Quarterly Journal of Economics,110(3),585-603。  new window
6.Geltner, D.(1989)。Bias in Appraisal-Based Returns。Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association,17(3),338-352。  new window
7.Graff, R.、Young, M. S.(1999)。The Magnitude of Random Appraisal Error in Commercial Real Estate Valuation。Journal of Real Estate Research,17(2),33-54。  new window
8.Hansz, J. Andrew(2004)。Prior Transaction Price Induced Smoothing: Testing and Calibrating the Quan-Quigley Model at the Disaggregate Level。Journal of Property Research,21(4),321-336。  new window
9.Pagourtzi, E.、Assimakopoulos, V.、Hatzichristos, T.、French, N.(2003)。Real estate appraisal: A review of valuation methods。Journal of Property Investment & Finance,21(4),383-401。  new window
10.Quan, Daniel C.、Quigley, John M.(1991)。Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets。Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,4(2),127-146。  new window
11.Yiu, C. Y.、Tang, B. S.、Chiang, Y. H.、Choy, L. H. T.(2006)。Alternative Theories of Appraisal Bias。Journal of Real Estate Literature,14(3),321-344。  new window
12.陳奉瑤、楊依蓁(20071200)。個別估價與大量估價之準確性分析。住宅學報,16(2),67-84。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Clayton, J.、Geltner, D.、Hamilton, S. W.(2001)。Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuations: Evidence from Individual Appraisals。Real Estate Economics,29(3),337-360。  new window
14.Diaz, J.(1997)。An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimate on Appraisal Judgment。Journal of Real Estate Research,13(1),57-66。  new window
15.Diaz, J.、Wolverton, M. L.(1998)。A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis。Real Estate Economics,26(2),349-358。  new window
16.林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚(19960100)。住宅價格指數之研究--以臺北市為例。住宅學報,4,1-30。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Kahneman, D.、Tversky, A.(1979)。Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk。Econometrica,47(2),263-291。  new window
18.洪鴻智、張能政(20060600)。不動產估價人員之價值探索過程:估價程序與參考點的選擇。建築與規劃學報,7(1),71-90。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Kahneman, Daniel、Tversky, Amos(1973)。On the psychology of prediction。Psychological Review,80(4),237-251。  new window
20.Geltner, D.(1989)。Estimating Real Estate’s Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns。Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association,17(4),463-481。  new window
圖書
1.Diaz, J.(2002)。Behavioural Research in Appraisal and Some Perspectives on Implications for Practice。London:RICS Foundation。  new window
2.International Valuation Standards Committee(2007)。International Valuation Standards。London:International Valuation Standards Committee。  new window
3.林英彥(2006)。不動產估價。臺北市:文生書局股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Gallimore, P.(2002)。Real Estate Valuation Theory: The components of appraisal accuracy, US。Appraisal Institute and American Real Estate Society。  new window
2.Edward, Ward(1968)。Conservatism in Human Information Processing。Formal Representation of Human Judgment。New York:John Wiley & Sons。  new window
 
 
 
 
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