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題名:以中國對美國資本回流率檢視貨幣權力理論
書刊名:問題與研究
作者:沈麗山
作者(外文):Shen, Lih-shan
出版日期:2016
卷期:55:1
頁次:頁1-34
主題關鍵詞:貨幣權力資本回流率美國債券資產日本債券資產對外直接投資Monetary powerCapital account/current account rateUS bonds assetJapan bonds assetForeign direct investment
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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Benjamin J. Cohen和Eric. Helleiner對貨幣權力進行概念論述,但欠缺具體操作指標,學者趙文志依Cohen貨幣權力理論中的延遲權力與轉移權力,提出延遲權力中有中、美兩國外匯儲備量、國債發行規模的借貸能力,轉移權力以貿易占GDP比值的開放程度,共三項具體指標,指出美國開放度比中國低、但美元流動性與借貸能力高於中國,說明美國對中國有貨幣權力,但該文無法說明中國外匯存底和貿易開放程度都高於美國,但為何是美國擁有貨幣權力,顯然中美貨幣權力關係更多的決定於借貸能力,而非另外二者。本文觀察中國對美國資本帳占經常帳比例形成的對美國資本回流率,作為檢視借貸能力的具體指標,同時定義美國貨幣權力表現在美國有能力影響人民幣匯率持續走升。發現中國對美國資本回流率和人民幣匯率呈相當正關聯,將中國對美國資本回流率和人民幣匯率做為補充貨幣權力的具體可觀察指標。觀察中國從2008至2013年改變購買美國債券資產行為,出現若干增減循環波段,同時增持日本債券資產和進行對外直接投資,造成中國美國資本帳變化較大,改變近20年來中國對美國資本帳幾近甚或超越經常帳的常態,資本帳占經常帳比例巨幅降至30%左右,相對應的人民幣匯率也隨此出現不同速度的升值速率。中國對美國資本回流率和人民幣匯率走勢大致相符,但若干年度出現時間差。分析原因有二,除中國持有美國債券為長天期造成出售時間差外,發現中國處理美國國債和美國國債以外債券資產有所不同,前者更能反映與人民幣匯率走勢關聯。即在2008年後扣除中國持有美國國債以外債券資產後,單以美國國債和以此為計算基礎的中國對美國資本回流率與同時期人民幣匯率呈高度正相關,說明在美、中兩國案例中貨幣權力確有解釋力,而貨幣權力中的借貸能力更有關鍵作用。
Although Benjamin J. Cohen and Eric Helleiner have developed narratives on Monetary Power, there is no clear operational definition of the term. Based on Cohen's discussion of the power of delay and the power of transfer, Chou Wen-Chi came up with three criteria to measure Monetary Power: foreign reserve, outstanding national debt, and percentage of trade in GDP. Using these criteria, he pointed out that although the US is less tradedependent, liquidity of US Dollar and borrowing ability of the US are both higher. Thus, the US holds Monetary Power over China. This paper observed a cyclical buying behavior of China on US Government Bonds from 2008 to 2013. During the time, China increased its holding of Japanese Bonds and foreign direct investment. China's Capital Account/Current Account rate to the U.S. is positively correlated with the exchange rate of RMB - thus, an indicator of Monetary Power. Though China's Capital Account/Current Account rate to the U.S. matched the exchange rate of RMB, there were time lags and inconsistency in several fiscal years. First reason was that most U.S. liability assets held by China were in the form of long-term security. Second, China differentially processes its holding of U.S. treasury and U.S. agency, bonds, and equity. China's holding of U.S. treasury more strongly matches the RMB exchange rate. In the case of China's Capital Account/Current Account rate, the Monetary Power theory possesses effective explanation ability, particularly its theory on borrowing capacity.
期刊論文
1.Cohen, Benjamin J.(200805)。The International Monetary System: Diffusion and Ambiguity。International Affairs,84(3),468-469。  new window
2.趙文志(20110600)。國際貨幣權力理論的應用:中國匯率政策改變的原因分析。問題與研究,50(2),143-167。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Helleiner, Eric(2008)。Political Determinants of International Currencies: What Future for the US Dollar?。Review of International Political Economy,15(3),354-378。  new window
4.Carbaugh, Robert(2005)。Can the Dollar Remain the World's Most Important Reserve Currency?。International Business & Economics Research Journal,4(7),9-16。  new window
5.Chin, Gregory、Helleiner, Eric(2008)。China as a Creditor: A Rising Financial Power?。Journal of International Affairs,62(1),87-102。  new window
6.Otero-Iglesias, Miguel(2012)。The Influence of the Euro in Reshaping Global Monetary Governance: Perceptions from Financial Elites in Brazil and China。European Law Journal,18(1),122-142。  new window
7.Strange, Gerard(2012)。The Euro, EU Social Democracy, and International Monetary Power: A Critique of New Constitutionalism。Globalizations,9(2),257-272。  new window
8.Subacchi, Paolas(2010)。Who is in Control of the International Monetary System?。International Affairs,86(3),665-680。  new window
9.Vermeiren, Mattias(2013)。The Crisis of US Monetary Hegemony and Global Economic Adjustment。Globalizations,10(2),245-259。  new window
10.Vermeiren, Mattias。Foreign Exchange Accumulation and the Entrapment of Chinese Monetary Power: Towards a Balanced Growth Regime?。New Political Economy,18(5),680-714。  new window
會議論文
1.World Investment Reports。United Nations Conference on Trade and Development。  new window
2.(2001)。World Investment Report 2001 Promoting Linkages。United Nations Conference on Trade and Development。  new window
3.World Investment Report 2013: Global Value-Chains: Investment and Trade for Development。United Nations Conference on Trade and Development。  new window
研究報告
1.中華人民共和國商務部、國家統計局、國家外匯管理局(2013)。2012年度中國對外直接投資統計公報。北京:中國統計出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.中華人民共和國商務部、中華人民共和國國家統計局、國家外匯管理局(2012)。2011年度中國對外直接投資統計公報。北京:中國統計出版社。  延伸查詢new window
3.中華人民共和國國家海關總署。海關主要統計數據。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Kirschner, Jonathan(1995)。Currency and Coercion: The Political Economy of International Monetary Power。Princeton:Princeton University Press。  new window
2.Cohen, Benjamin J.(2011)。The Future of Global Currency: The Euro Versus the Dollar。Oxford, UK:Rutledge。  new window
單篇論文
1.Morrison, Wayne M.,Labonte, Marc(2013)。Chinas Holdings of U.S. Securities: Implications for the U.S. Economy,https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34314.pdf。  new window
其他
1.中國國家外匯管理局。人民幣匯率中間價,http://www.safe.gov.cn/wps/portal/sy/tjsj_hlzjj_jnquire。  延伸查詢new window
2.中央銀行。中央銀行我國與主要貿易對手通貨對美元之匯率,http://www.cbc.gov.tw/content.asp?mp=1&CuItem=36599。  延伸查詢new window
3.中國國家外匯管理局。外匯儲備數據,http://www.safe.gov.cn/wps/portaI/sy/tjsj_lnwhcb。  延伸查詢new window
4.Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves,http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/index.htm。  new window
5.Securities(A): U.S. Transactions with Foreigners in Long-Term Securities Statics: A. Recent Net Foreign Purchases, by Country : l.Net Purchases of U.S. Long-Term Securities: A,http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/snetus.txt。  new window
6.Securities(B): Portfolio Holdings of U.S and Foreign Securities,http://www.treasury.goV/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticsec2.aspx#ussecs。  new window
7.TABLE ID : U.S. Long-Term Securities Held by Foreign Residents in May 2013,http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/ tic/Pages/ticsec3.aspx。  new window
8.The International Trade Statistics Yearbook,http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx。  new window
9.Treasury International Capital System,http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx。  new window
10.U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis。U.S. International Transactions Accounts Data,http://www.bea.gov/intemational/bp_web/tb_download_type.cfm?list=l&anon=17&table_id=10&area_id=35。  new window
11.(2012)。Working Together to Support Global Recovery,http ://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2012/eng/index.htm。  new window
12.United Nations。World Investment Prospects Survey,http://unctad.org/en/docs/diaeia 20104_en.pdf。  new window
13.日本銀行。日本銀行國際收支統計--年末直接投資.證券投資等殘高地域別統計,http://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/br/bop/index.htm/。  延伸查詢new window
14.日本財務省。国債(国の発行する債券),http://www.mofgo.jp/jgbs/。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Cohen, Benjamin J.(2006)。Macro Foundations of Monetary Power。International Monetary Power.。Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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