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題名:區域石油安全結構中的印度:依賴與風險
書刊名:全球政治評論
作者:黃偉倫
作者(外文):Huang, Wei-lun
出版日期:2016
卷期:54
頁次:頁93-117
主題關鍵詞:石油安全天然氣管線計畫社會交換關係依賴風險Oil securityNatural gas pipelineSocial exchange relationshipDependenceRisk
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:3
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本文從「依賴」與「風險」兩個社會心理學之概念來理解印度在區域石油安全結構中的石油安全戰略。國際能源安全結構中,行為者之間的溝通渠道及石油天然氣的運輸渠道,決定了國家對能源安全的認知。在石油需求不斷增加下,印度政府在1999年開放外資進入石油天然氣產業以增加國內生產,但成效不彰。當前國際油價處於低檔價位,加上美國對緬甸及伊朗相繼解除經濟制裁,未來將有更多產油國加入市場,將有助於印度石油進口多元化與海外置產。面對中國「一帶一路」戰略,印度嘗試連結東邊(緬甸)、西邊(伊朗)、北邊(土庫曼)天然氣管線。對印度石油安全戰略而言,未來成為上海合作組織正式成員後,南亞、中亞、中東三方的地緣政治經濟互動將是未來觀察重點。
This article construes India's oil security strategy in the regional security structure of oil from the perspective of two notions: dependence and risk, which are inherent in social exchange relationships. Hence, in the international energy structure, the communication channels, transportation channels, and pipelines among actors can determine states’ perception of energy security. With the rising oil demand at home, India attempts to meet its domestic demand and to ensure its oil supply security, through three ways: domestic production (reducing import dependency), overseas production (reducing import dependency), and overseas imports (increasing and spread overall dependency). In terms of oil imports, traditionally, India's oil supply security (near two third) is dependent upon Middle Eastern countries because of lower transportation costs and overseas Indians in the region. Finally, the construction of natural gas pipelines can be the other option to ensure India's oil security. Confronting China's Eurasian energy bridge and "One Belt One Road" strategy, India seeks to link its pipelines to the East (Myanmar), the West (Iran), and the North (Turkmenistan). However, under the US' support and influence, among the four pipeline projects, "Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI)" pipeline project is the only scheme that might be completed in the future. This article concludes that after the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran and the finalization of India's full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2016, the dynamics of the South Asia-Central Asia-the Middle East trilateral relations will become the focus of the observation for comprehending India's oil security strategy in the future.
期刊論文
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2.Guriev, Sergei、Kolotilin, Anton、Sonin, Konstantin(2011)。Determinants of Nationalization in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data。Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization,27(2),301-323。  new window
3.Beri, Ruchita(2010)。Prospects of India's Energy Quest in Africa: Insights from Sudan and Nigeria。Strategic Analysis,34(6),897-911。  new window
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6.Chandra, Varigonda Kesava(2012)。The Pipeline That Wasn't: Myanmar-Bangladesh-India Natural Gas Pipeline。Journal of Energy Security。  new window
7.Sáez, Lawrence(2007)。U.S. Policy and Energy Security in South Asia: Economic Prospects and Strategic Implications。Asian Survey,47(4),657-678。  new window
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圖書
1.魏艾、林長青(2008)。中國石油外交策略探索:兼論安全複合體系之理論與實際。臺北:生智文化。  延伸查詢new window
2.丁韶彬(2010)。大國對外援助--社會交換論的視角。北京:社會科學文獻出版社。  延伸查詢new window
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6.Klare, Michael T.、洪慧芳(2008)。石油的政治經濟學:高油價時代的新世界版圖。台北:財信。  延伸查詢new window
7.Blau, Peter Michael(1964)。Exchange and Power in Social Life。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
其他
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7.Potter, Alan(20150503)。Did India Miss an Opportunity for Reform?,http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/did-india-miss-an-opportunity-for-reform。  new window
8.Winsor, Morgan(20150625)。Nigeria Replaces Saudi Arabia as Top Crude Oil Supplier to India,http://www.ibtimes.com/nigeria-replaces-saudi-arabia-top-crude-oil-supplier-india-1983397。  new window
9.(20150711)。PM Modi pitches for early implementation of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline,http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-pm-narendra-modi-pitches-for-early-implementation-of-tapi-project-2103664。  new window
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11.(20150121)。「和平」天然氣管道遭凍結,伊朗發出最後通牒,http://sputniknews.cn/opinion/20150121/1013590409.html。  延伸查詢new window
12.(20130729)。中緬天然氣管道開始向中國輸氣,http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2013-07/29/nw.D110000renmrb_20130729_2-03.htm。  new window
13.(20050108)。India signs pact to import 7.5 mt LNG from Iran,http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/india-signs-pact-to-import-75-mt-lng-from-iran/article2164913.ece.。  new window
14.(20030125)。India, Iran sign New Delhi Declaration,http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2003-01-25/news/27546023_1_iran-sign-india-and-iran-tehran。  new window
15.(20150712)。ONGC not to exit Vietnam block despite poor prospectivity,http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/ONGC-not-to-exit-Vietnam-block-despite-poor-prospectivity/articleshow/48040450.cms。  new window
圖書論文
1.Lawler, Edward J.(2006)。The Affect Theory of Social Exchange。Contemporary Social Psychological Theories。Stanford, CA:London:Stanford University Press:Eurospan。  new window
2.黃偉倫(2015)。印度與南亞國家之經貿關係:網絡權力觀點。南亞研究新視野:政治發展、國際關係、經濟社會。臺北:五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Ahmad, Talmiz(2009)。Geopolitics of West Asian and Central Asian Oil and Gas: Implications for India's Energy Security。India's Energy Security。London:Routledge。  new window
4.蔡東杰(2014)。中印在能源議題上之競合互動。探索中國大陸石油戰略與外交:合作、競爭與衝突。台北:五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Dadwal, Shebonti Ray(2005)。Politics of the Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline Project。Energy and Diplomacy。Delhi:Konark Publishers。  new window
6.Pant, Harsh V.(2011)。India's Relations with Bangladesh。Handbook of India's International Relations。New York:London:Routledge。  new window
7.Srivastava, Leena、Misra, Neha、Hasan, Shahid(2014)。Promoting Regional Energy Co-Operation in South Asia。Regional Integration in South Asia : Trends, Challenges and Prospects。London:The Commonwealth Secretariat。  new window
8.Batra, Ravi Kumar(2009)。Natural Gas Pipelines: Geopolitics, Affordability, Security Dimensions。India's Energy Security。London:Routledge。  new window
9.Srinivasan, N.(2005)。Energy Cooperation between India and Its Neighbouring Countries。Energy and Diplomacy。Delhi:Konark Publishers。  new window
10.Rana, Kishan S.(2011)。Serving the Private Sector: India's Experience in Context。The New Economic Diplomacy: Decision-Making and Negotiation in International Economic Relations。Farnham:Ashgate。  new window
11.Khurana, Gurpreet S.(2009)。Security of Maritime Energy Lifelines: Policy Imperatives for India。India's Energy Security。London:Routledge。  new window
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