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題名:因應中共空軍戰力發展分析我國空軍戰機提升方案
書刊名:危機管理學刊
作者:張良政董進如
作者(外文):Chang, L. C.Dong, C. R.
出版日期:2017
卷期:14:1
頁次:頁39-52
主題關鍵詞:中共空軍系統動力學想定分析戰機性能PLA air forceSystem dynamicsScenario analysis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:5
因應中共空軍戰力發展分析我國空軍戰機提升方案隨著中共戰機的性能提升,我國卻由於軍購的限制,主要戰機仍為上一代的機種。本文透過系統動力學分析在臺灣空域限制下,我國空軍現有戰機中共空軍持續的戰力表現。接著透過想定分析,比較雙方戰力提升後,五年和十年後,我國空軍戰力持續的表現。最後提出在沒有採購新戰機的可下封存幻象2000 型戰機和提昇經國號與F-16 型戰機性能的建議。
Since the increasing performance of the PLA air force and the limitation of military purchase, the combats of ROC air force are still the previous generation. This paper applied system dynamics to analyze the military capacity of ROC current combats and of PLA current combats in the air zone of Taiwan. We also compare the military capacity after upgrading in five years and ten years through scenario analysis. In final, we propose that without the possibility of new combat purchase, the suggestions of preservation of M-2000 and upgrading IDF and F-16.
期刊論文
1.Gary, M. S.、Kune, M. K.、Morecrorft, J. W.、Rockart, S. F.(2008)。System dynamics and strategy。System Dynamics Review,24(4),407-429。  new window
2.馬振坤(20061200)。中共軍力擴張與限制。國防雜誌,21(6),157-168。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Fan, C. Y.、Fan, P. S.、Chang, P. C.(2010)。A System Dynamics Modeling Approach for A Military Weapon Maintains Supply System。International Journal of Production Economics,128(2),457-469。  new window
4.Sterman, J. D.(2001)。System Dynamics Modeling: Tools for Learning in A Complex World。California Management Review,43(4),8-25。  new window
圖書
1.國防部《國防報告書》編纂委員會(2015)。中華民國104年國防報告書。臺北市:國防部軍備局生產製造中心第四〇一廠北部印製所。  延伸查詢new window
2.Shlapak, D. A.、Orletsky, D. T.、Reid, T. I.、Tanner, M. S.、Wilson, B.(2009)。A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute。Santa Monica, CA:RAND Corporation。  new window
3.Lostumbo, Michael J.、Frelingerjames, David R.、Williams, Barry Wilson(2016)。Air Defense Options for Taiwan。Santa Monica, Calif:RAND Corporation。  new window
其他
1.程嘉文(2016)。殲20首度亮相,專家評語:空戰性能不高,http://udn.com/news/story/7331/2062034。  延伸查詢new window
2.中國新聞組(2016)。殲--20將飛越珠海,視同正式服役,http://www.worldjoumal.com/4497595/article-%E6%AE%B220%E5%B0%87%E9%A3%9B%E8%B6%8A%E7%8F%A0%E6%B5%B7-%E8%A6%96%E5%90%8C%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E6%9C%8D%E5%BD%B9-2/。  new window
3.許劍虹(20160803)。俄羅斯已向中共交付24架Su-35戰機,http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160803003831-260417。  延伸查詢new window
4.Flightglobal and RUAG。World Air Force 2016,https://zh.scribd.com/doc/293738905/AirForces-2016。  new window
5.Office of the Security of Defense(2014)。2014 Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China,http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_DoD_Ch ina_Report.pdf。  new window
 
 
 
 
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