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題名:油價對石油進出口國國民生產毛額及匯率之影響研究
書刊名:財金論文叢刊
作者:劉文祺 引用關係陳莉玲
作者(外文):Liu, Wen-chiChen, Li-ling
出版日期:2018
卷期:28
頁次:頁1-11
主題關鍵詞:OPEC原油價國民生產毛額匯率石油進出口國因果關係檢定OPEC crude oil priceGross domestic productExchange rateOil importing and exporting countriesCausality test
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:11
本本研究之研究期間為2009 年第1 季至2017 年第4 季,以Toda and Yamamoto(1995)之因果關係檢定加以探討油價對石油進出口國國民生產毛額及匯率之影響。根據國際能源署(IEA)2017 年世界能源展望(World Energy Outlook 2017, WEO-2017)之全球石油統計資料,中國大陸(China)為全球第一大石油進口國,而沙烏地阿拉伯(Saudi Arabia)為2017 年全球第一大石油出口國,但因沙烏地阿拉伯採釘住美元的匯率政策,故本研究改以浮動匯率之全球第二大石油出口國俄羅斯(Russian Federation)取代。經過嚴謹的實證過程,獲得以下的結論:OPEC 原油價只有顯著領先中國及俄羅斯GDP 一季正向變動。油價對於原油進口國(中國)GDP 而言,並未如預期呈現負面影響,顯見油價上漲帶來溫和通膨,反而對於中國的經濟發展是有利的,但對於原油出口國(俄羅斯)GDP 而言,則如預期呈現正面的影響。
The research period of this study is from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2017. The effect of oil price on gross domestic product and exchange rate of oil importing and exporting countries is investigated using Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) causality test. According to the 2017 World Energy Outlook of International Energy Agency (IEA), China is the world's largest oil importer, and Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia) is the world's largest oil exporter in 2017. While the Saudi Arabia's exchange rate is pegged to the US dollar, it will be replaced by Russian, the second largest exporter, with a floating exchange rate in this study. After a rigorous empirical process, the following conclusions are obtained: The OPEC crude oil price leads China and Russia's GDP a quarter of positive change significantly. It is not expected that the oil price have a positive impact on the GDP for China. It is obvious that the rise in oil prices brings about moderate inflation, and it is beneficial to China's economic development. However, the crude oil price has a positive impact as expected on the GDP for Russia.
期刊論文
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