本文根據1992至1997年臺灣地區航行員人數，運用五年平均數，求算航行員各職階狀態轉移機率，建構一個吸收性馬可夫轉移矩陣，來預測航行員各職階擔任職務年月數，及每年之總供給量，同時，應用灰色理論之GM(1,1)模式，來預測航行員每年之總需求量，並做交叉分析，來探討臺灣地區海上航行員人力供需問題，獲得了一些重要結果，這些結果可以提供給政府相關單位，擬定臺灣地區海上航行員人力政策之參考。

　　　　　This study based on the number of deck officers in Taiwan during 1992 to 1997, adopted the five-year moving average to work out the transition probability of deck officers in each hierarchy, and constructed an absorbing Markov transition matrix to forecast the terms of seniority in each hierarchy and their annual supply. Besides, this paper used the GM(1,1) model of grey theory to forecast the annual demand of deck officers, and used the cross analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of marine deck officers in Taiwan and obtained some important results. The authorities concerned may use these results as references to determine the manpower policy of marine deck officers in Taiwan.