過去學者的研究，普遍認為在軍閥統治時期由於中央權威衰微，地方商人的力量達到空前高漲的地步，有很高的自主性，包括研究中國資產階級有名的法國學者白吉爾(Marie-Claire Bergere)，以及中國大陸的學者如徐鼎新、朱英、虞和平等人都持此看法。本文觀察1920年代初期上海地區商人所進行的民治運動，以他們參與的廢督裁兵自治運動、召開的八團體國是會議、組織的民治委員會，以及他們發起的弭兵、和平運動為事例，分析商人參與這些運動背後錯綜複雜的因素，以及這些運動的實際效果，重新評析軍閥統治時期地方商人所具有的政治力量。得到的結論是，商人在此一時期所進行的民治運動，無論在思想上或行動上，都受到知識分子及外人等其他力量的指導或督促，並沒有很高的獨立自主，而且內部意見紛歧，彼此相互攻伐，抵銷了行動的能力。正因為他們對民治運動的實踐沒有堅定不移的信念，對運動進行的方法和步驟沒有深刻的思考和具體的計劃，所以歷次行動表面上雖然轟轟烈烈，實際上卻渙散無力，並無具體的成效。從商人所進行的民治運動可以看出，他們不但對全國性的政治問題無力過問，對地方的和平也力不從心，在軍閥統治時期他們其實是政治上的弱勢者。

　　　　　Past study by the scholars of this topic has generally taken the view that during the warlord period, and as a result of the declining power of the central government of the time, the strength of local merchants reached an unprecedented level, enjoying a high degree of autonomy. Scholars holding such view include the famous French scholar on Chinese bourgeoisie Prof. Marie-Chaire Bergere, and Mainland Chinese scholars such as Hsu Ting-hsin (徐鼎新), Chu Ying (朱英), Yu Ho-ping (虞和平) and many others. This paper takes as instances the Shanghai-area merchants' Popular Government Movement in the 1920s, their participation in the self-rule movement for abdication of governor-generals and disbandment of troops, their holding of Eight Organizations' National Convention, their formation of the Popular Government Committee, as well their initiatives in the attempt to stop the internecine armed conflicts and in the peace movement, for an analysis of a whole range of complicated factors behind these merchants' taking part in these movements and activities and the actual effects, with a view to re-evaluating the political power these local merchants had during the period of warlordism. The conclusion is found to be that with respect to either thinking or practice, the Popular Government Movement as promoted by the merchants during this period was guided or supervised by intellectuals and foreigners and other social forces, so these merchants did not have a high degree of independence and autonomy. Moreover, there were conflicting opinions among them, in addition to infightings. All these resulted in reducing the effectiveness of their capacity. Exactly because of their lack of invincible faith in the practice of the Popular Government Movement, their lack of profound thinking and concrete plan with respect to methods and approaches for carrying out the movement, these merchants actually turned out to be disorganized and powerless, achieving no actual results, regardless of various superficial and grand fashions the movement generated. It can be seen from the Popular Government Movement as promoted by the merchants that they were not only powerless over national political issues, they were also helpless in local peace, and they were actually political weaklings during the period of warlordism.