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題名：京都議定書彈性機制的採行對台灣總體經濟影響之研究─可計算一般均衡模型之分析
作者：林幸樺 引用關係
作者(外文)：Hsing-Hua Lin
校院名稱：國立臺灣大學
系所名稱：農業經濟學研究所
指導教授：徐世勳
黃宗煌
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2002
主題關鍵詞：京都議定書；彈性機制；可計算一般均衡；GTEM模型
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(UNFCCC)第三次締約國大會(COP3)於1997年12月通過具有法律效力的「京都議定書」(Kyoto Protocol)，規範締約國未來溫室氣體減量時程與目標值。為協助附件一國家能以經濟有效且更具彈性之方式，履行其溫室氣體的減量目標，氣候變化綱要公約於京都議定書中第六條、第十二條及第十七條分別訂出共同減量 (Joint Implementation，簡稱JI)、清潔發展機制(Clean Development Mechanism，簡稱CDM)與排放交易(Emission Trading，簡稱ET)等三種彈性機制。其中，京都議定書中的「排放交易」彈性機制，係允許由附件一國家之間進行溫室氣體的排放交易，藉由此機制來協助附件一國家達到減量承諾以及達到全球溫室氣體減量之目的。
為全面評估排放交易對於台灣各產業部門所造成的經濟影響，以可計算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium model，簡稱CGE模型)的理論基礎與分析架構，來進行政策之經濟影響評估，本研究採用跨國GTEM模型在美國是否退出京都議定書的條件下進行實證模擬：包括分析單獨減量、京都機制中的排放交易與CDM以及經濟效果的解析(decomposition)等。
模擬結果顯示：在碳稅與碳交易價格上，除了前蘇聯與東歐諸國之外，其他國家單獨進行減量的成本明顯高於實施全球碳排放交易時之價格，為減緩減量壓力，ET與CDM機制有其存在的必要；在碳漏損現象上，單獨減量所造成的碳漏損率最高，約為12.6%，而在ET機制下則降為約5.6%，至於ET搭配CDM機制，所造成的碳漏損現象最低，約為4.8%，證明CDM機制對碳漏損之現象有明顯的改善效果；台灣在附件一國家實施單獨減量政策時，排放量將明顯增加，其次為附件一國家實施ET，增加幅度最小者為CDM搭配ET；當美國退出京都議定書，則全球的溫室氣體排放交易價格將會大幅度下跌；針對台灣總體經濟環境而言，無論美國是否退出，在京都機制對台灣的影響衝擊上，對台灣的實質GDP成長率、實質國民支出毛額(GNE)成長率、國內毛投資額與進口均有正向的貢獻。值得一提的是在解析實質GDP之實證結果，發現在貿易自由化下，技術的改變對實質GDP的影響有非零之貢獻。因此透過跨期的動態過程，除了考量附加價值與相關稅收變數之外，需要考量技術進步對於實質GDP的貢獻效果。
本研究之貢獻在於針對京都議定書之彈性機制的意義、功能進行分析與探討，以瞭解不同彈性機制間的差異以及未來的發展趨勢；其次進行彈性機制之經濟效果的文獻彙整與比較，主要探討彈性機制中排放交易(ET)與清潔發展機制(CDM)之內涵、應用原則與時機，並比較單獨減量與彈性機制下之經濟效果；同時納入解析的意義、功能與重要性進行分析與探討，藉此瞭解解析的一般原則、以及不同解析工具間的差異與經濟效果解析之方法。由於本研究將以CGE模型作為實證模型，除彙整比較國際間著名的CGE模型外；並由GTEM模型之特點、架構與研發方向出發，完成京都機制對台灣總體經濟影響之模擬與解析。
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 to take a step toward stabilizing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gas emission. The Kyoto mechanisms are a number of important flexibility provisions contained in the protocol — Emission Trading(ET), Joint Implementation(JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) — that, if implemented, could reduce the costs of meeting abatement targets.
This study discusses the choice of economic instruments, including independent abatement, ET and CDM, to control greenhouse gases(GHGs) emissions. Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) is a well known dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy designed for research on economic issue of a global nature, including climate change. In collaboration with GTEM to develop the assessments of the energy and economic implications of achieving the goals of the Kyoto target. The aim of this paper is applied GTEM to simulate the mitigation scenarios and evaluate the potential impact of Kyoto target on Taiwan’s economy.
After the decision by the US not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the prospects on the actual working of the world carbon market will change dramatically. In addition, the effectuation of the Kyoto Protocol without US has been discussed in this paper, according to the simulation results, the emission trading price is projected to decline most significantly. Whether US will withdraw from Kyoto Protocol, both of these scenarios, by taking into account carbon leakage effect, Taiwan will get the gain benefits and improve the welfare. However, the withdrawal of the US carbon-leakage and it worsens not only absolute GHGs emission and also efficiency of carbon dioxide reduction on the whole earth.
Comparing with the mitigation scenarios on Taiwan’s economy, real GDP, domestic gross investment, and imports are projected to increase relative to the reference case, exports are projected to decline. Furthermore, the real gross national expenditure is projected to raise under CDM and US rejects to ratify the Protocol.
In term of decomposition issue, changes in real GNP yield the equivalent variation measure of welfare changes. An attempt to decompose this measure of welfare change is decomposed into changes in real GDP, real income attributable to movements in the terms of trade and international income transfers. In addition to that, if the technical change to change in real GDP will be non-zero, it implies that there will be a non-zero contribution of technical change as a consequence of trade liberalization.
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