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題名:假釋受刑人再犯預測研究
作者:張聖照
校院名稱:中央警察大學
系所名稱:犯罪防治研究所
指導教授:許春金
陳玉書
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2007
主題關鍵詞:假釋受刑人再犯預測
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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基於對近年間假釋受刑人再犯所引發假釋政策劇烈變動的關切,本研究乃就國內假釋受刑人再犯現況以及再犯預測等議題進行實證之分析、檢驗,以期能對假釋受刑人再犯原因,找尋合理之相關因子、提供犯罪學理論解釋基礎,並進而能為當今假釋審查實務建構具體之參考指標。
本研究之再犯預測因子主要由一般化犯罪理論、社會鍵理論、成年社會鍵理論、差別接觸理論、緊張理論等內涵所構成。採取縱貫性研究方法,以2004年1月至6月間由台北監獄等7所矯正機關假釋出監之受刑人計961名為樣本,進行第一階段之自陳問卷調查。接著再於2006年1月至3月間進行第二階段以官方統計為主之再犯追蹤調查(此時之有效樣本數為946名)。
經採用多變量統計技術分析後,本研究發現:假釋受刑人再犯以毒品、竊盜等非暴力犯罪為大宗,且女性毒品再犯增長的速度已超越於男性。另約有4﹪的少數樣本卻可解釋34﹪之再犯,且亦有持續再犯傾向。
而在影響假釋受刑人再犯相關因素之探討中,本研究發現個人早期犯罪經驗、偏差友伴等變項對於樣本再犯具有最強之解釋力,因而可支持差別接觸理論對於假釋受刑人再犯之概化力較優於其他理論。惟一般化犯罪理論對於再犯之潛在顯著效應,以及成年社會鍵理論對於毒品再犯、社會鍵理論對於女性再犯之顯著影響力亦均不容忽略。另外,由上述實證歷程中所篩選出之顯著預測因子建構而成之假釋審查參考指標,亦較猜測提昇了30﹪以上之正確度。
本研究根據上述結果,乃進而提出以下5點建議,以供未來學術發展與政策擬定之參考:一、廣化、深化運用再犯預測/風險評估於刑事司法體系各階段運作。二、致力再犯預測研究信度與效度之提昇。三、未來矯治處遇發展方向:修復式矯治模式。四、未來假釋機制發展方向:整合刑罰威嚇與再犯預測之模式。五、重視持續再犯者(職業犯罪者)於刑事政策中之功能。
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日文部分
岩井敬介(1982)。假釋放之保護觀察。石原一彥、佐佐木史朗、西原春夫、松尾浩也合編(1982)。現代刑法大系(第7卷)。日本評論社。
森下忠(1992)。刑事政策入門。成文堂。
森下忠(1993)。刑事政策大綱。成文堂。
香川達夫(1982)。假釋放之保護觀察。福田平,大塚仁合編。刑法總論Ⅱ。有斐閣。
網站資源
crime library網站:http://www.crimelibrary.com/criminology/danger/
The HM Prison Service網站:http://www.hmprisonservice.gov.uk
The National Probation Service網站:http://www.probation.homeoffice.gov.uk
 
 
 
 
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