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題名：台灣地區中高齡受雇人員退休行為之動態規劃研究
作者：李勝榮 引用關係
作者(外文)：Sheng-Jung Li
校院名稱：國立高雄第一科技大學
系所名稱：管理研究所
指導教授：周賢榮
蘇恩德
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2007
主題關鍵詞：受雇人員；退休行為；多元羅吉斯迴歸模型；動態規劃模型；勞動經濟；dynamic programming model；multi-nomial Logit regression model；retirement behavior；employee；labor economics
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面對產業全球化的發展與衝擊，各國為了提昇國際競爭力，產業結構均作了必要的改革與調整，也導致國內產業結構與工作機會明顯轉變。這意謂著在全球化經濟型態下，勞動市場對於受雇人員的工作性質或個人特徵特性等需求，將產生明顯的變化。且在全球人口普遍老化的情況下，勞動人口的退休決策受到各國普遍的重視。因此，經濟全球化對勞動市場的影響，對於探討未來受雇人員退休行為的議題是值得深思的。本研究試以台灣地區中高齡受雇人員作為研究對象，就行政院主計處統計資料庫擷取「人力資源調查」暨「人力運用調查」原始資料，蒐集可能造成中高齡受雇人員退休決策之影響因素，並結合多元羅吉斯迴歸模型及修改Heyma (2004) 所提出的動態規劃模型進行實證研究，加以分析中高齡受雇人員於繼續工作、退休、傷病、失業及資遣等行為之影響因素。
實證結果顯示，於多元羅吉斯迴歸模型的估計結果中，行業、職業、教育年數及年資變數於退休、傷病、失業及資遣等行為對繼續工作之比較上皆具有顯著影響。於動態規劃模型的估計結果中，行業變數與年資變數於繼續工作、退休、傷病、失業及資遣等退休行為皆具有顯著影響。另外，於居住地區變數上，僅對資遣情況具有顯著影響，且非直轄市的受雇人員其被資遣的可能性大於直轄市的受雇人員。於性別變數上，女性選擇退休的可能性較高；男性發生傷病、失業及被資遣的機會高於女性。於行業變數上，顯示從事商業之受雇人員相對於從事士、農及工業的受雇人員，其選擇退休的可能性較高，而發生傷病、失業及資遣的可能性較低。於職業變數上，顯示職位較高之受雇人員相對於職位較低的受雇人員，其選擇退休的可能性較高，且發生傷病及失業的可能性較低，而被資遣的可能性較高。於受教育年數之變數上，顯示受教育年數愈低者，其選擇退休的可能性較高；受教育年數愈高之受雇人員，其發生傷病及失業的可能性較低，而被資遣的可能性相較於教育程度低者為高。於年資之變數上，顯示年資愈高者，其選擇退休的可能性較高，而發生傷病、失業及被資遣的可能性較低。於薪資所得之變數上，僅對退休情況具有顯著影響，顯示薪資所得較高的受雇人員其退休的可能性大於薪資所得較低的受雇人員。於工作時數之變數上，僅對繼續工作及失業情況具有顯著影響，顯示工作時數愈低者，其失業的可能性較高；反之，工作時數愈高者，其失業的可能性較低。於公司規模之變數上，僅對退休及失業情況具有顯著影響，顯示公司規模愈大者，其員工退休的可能性較高；另外，公司規模愈大者，其員工失業的可能性較低。
In face of the development and impact of globalization, almost every nation has made necessary reforms and adjustments of their industrial structures. Our domestic industrial structure and job opportunities have also undergone a significant transformation. This implies that in global economy, the work properties or personal characteristics of employees demanded by the labor market will be significantly changing. Moreover, as the aging of population has become a global problem, retirement decision of labor population is extensively paid attention gradually in every nation. Therefore, the impact of economic globalization on the labor market is a significant issue in the study of the future retirement behavior of employees. Focusing on middle aged and senior employees in Taiwan, this study extracted the primary data of “Survey on Human Resources” and “Survey on Manpower Utilization” from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan to collect all the data of the factors that affect middle aged and senior employees’ retirement decision. By applying multi-nomial Logit regression model and modifying the dynamic programming model proposed by Heyma (2004), an empirical analysis is performed to analyze the factors if affecting middle aged and senior employees’ behaviors concerning the decision of continuation of employment, retirement, injury and illness, unemployment, or dismissal.
The empirical results of the multi-nomial Logit regression model indicated that line of business, occupation, years of education, and seniority have significant influence on the decision of retirement, injury, unemployment, or dismissal compared to that of continuation of employment. However, the results of the dynamic programming model indicated that just line of business and seniority have significant influence on the decision of continuation of employment, retirement, injury, unemployment, and dismissal. Besides, the factor of residential region only affects significantly on dismissal and employees in non-municipal cities are more likely to be laid off than those in municipal cities. As to line of business, employees in commercial businesses are more likely to choose to retire than those in the governmental, agricultural, and industrial businesses, but are less likely to suffer from injury, unemployment, and dismissal. However, the factor of corporate scale significantly affects only the decision of retirement and unemployment, indicating that employees in larger companies are more likely to choose to retire and less likely to suffer from unemployment.
In terms of gender, female employees are more likely to choose to retire and male employees are more likely to suffer from injury, unemployment, and dismissal. Higher-position employees are more likely to choose to retire than lower-position employees. Moreover, they are also less likely to suffer from injury and unemployment, but are more likely to be laid off. As to the factor of years of education, employees with fewer years of education are more likely to choose to retire but those with more years of education are less likely to suffer from injury and unemployment and so they are more likely to be laid off than those with fewer years of education. For seniority, higher seniority employees are more likely to choose to retire but less likely to suffer from injury, unemployment, and dismissal. Whereas, the factor of salary income significantly affects only decision of retirement, indicating that employees with a higher salary income are more likely to choose to retire than those with a lower salary income. Besides, the factor of working hours has more influence on the decision of continuation of employment and unemployment. This reveals that employees working fewer hours are more likely to suffer from unemployment and on the contrary, those working more hours are less likely to be jobless.
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