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題名:領導風格與標準作業程序對中共對台決策之影響
作者:陳政一
作者(外文):Cheng-I Chen
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:國家發展研究所
指導教授:陳明通
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2019
主題關鍵詞:中共對台決策領導風格標準作業程序
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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中共對台決策過程向為神秘的黑盒子,究竟哪些因素與關鍵部門在對台決策過程中具有影響力,一直是外界關切的焦點。本文嘗試驗證「在中共的決策過程中,領導人的性格將決定領導風格,而領導風格將決定權力的分佈結構,若領導風格非強勢,部門的標準作業程序將能發揮作用。相反地,若領導風格強勢,部門的標準作業程序將因權力分佈的集中而不具作用。」。
本文透過中共三位領導人與四個涉台相關部門的標準作業程序作為自變數,以1989年至2018年的中共對台政策作為依變數,透過七個案例的交叉比對來驗證影響中共對台決策的關鍵因素與關鍵部門究竟為何。
本文研究發現,中共領導者的領導風格對其對臺政策的影響具有相當關鍵的作用,即便是相對弱勢的胡錦濤,在面對黨國利益的價值衝突之際,其對鷹派部門—也就是解放軍—的制約能力也相當強,這個現象暗示著後續的研究建議,也就是應針對中共領導者的成長背景、性格與其權力基礎進行更深入的探討,方能較釐清領導風格的差異,以及這個差異對政策的影響。
另本文與現有許多學者的觀點不同的是,即便中台辦在中共國務院各部委之間屬於弱勢,但中台辦本身屬於中國共產黨的機構,並非屬於中共國務院的機構,為協調政務的方便而具備「國務院臺灣事務辦公室」之名,而正因為台辦實際上是黨務機構,因而賦予中台辦在中共中央與國務院各部委之間的溝通協調能力,故中台辦在當前中共對台決策中扮演關鍵部門的角色。
The Taiwan policy making process of China is just like an opaque box. The researchers are always interested in which factors and departments own the conclusive influence during the decision making process. This thesis tries to prove that the leader’s personality would influence the power distribution between policy making units. If the leadership tends to moderation, the bureaucracy’s “Standard Operating Procedures (SOP)” could work more smoothly. Otherwise, if the leadership appears highly dominated, the role of the bureaucracy’s SOP could be not working.
This thesis takes three different CCP’s General Secretaries and the SOPs from four handling Taiwan issue departments of China government as the independent variable and the China’s Taiwan policy from 1989 to 2018 as the dependent variable. According to this to analyze what is the main influence in China’s Taiwan policy making process. Meanwhile, doing cross-validation to find out the key factors and departments in making Taiwan policy process via these seven cases.
The research finding of this thesis is the leadership plays a critical role in China’s Taiwan policy making process. Taking Hu Jintao case for an example, Hu has much weaker authority to bureaucracy that causes each time when opinions diverge occuring, the hawk inside China especially refering to PLA will display more capacities on making Taiwan policy. This phenomenon brings the fellowing research suggestion which is in the future we should study the CCP’s leader background more including his growing process, personality, and power condition in order to clarify his leadership for observating the influence to make Taiwan policy.
Under the chinese Council of State system, Taiwan Affairs Office’s power is not necessary more than other departments, but actually Taiwan Affairs Office belongs to CCP not only to the Council of State. For the reason to coordinate easily, they use “one institution with two names” way putting the Taiwan Affairs Office in the Council of State system. However, the nature of Taiwan Affairs office is one part of CCP organization so it’s given the higher level to coordinate the departments of the Council of State. This makes the Taiwan Affairs Office become the most important unit in the process of Taiwan policy making.
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貳、英文部分
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Chris Brown (2001). Understanding International Relations. New York: New York: Palgrave Macmillan press.
Christopher Hil(2003). The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy. New York: Palgrave Macmillan press.
David Shambaugh(2002). Modernizing China’s Military: Progress, Problems and Prospects. California : University of California press.
Denny Roy(2003) .aiwan: A Political History (New York: Cornell University, 2003
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Evan S. Medeiros (2009). China''s International Behavior:Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification. California: Rand Corporation press.
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Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow (1999).Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Longman.
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Thomas J. Christensen(2011). Worse than a Monolith: Alliance Politics and Problems of Coercive Diplomacy in Asia. Princeton: Princeton University press.
Willy Lam(2006). Chinese Politics in the Hu Jintao Era: New Leaders, New Challenges. New York: Routledge press.
Willy Wo-Lap Lam(2006). Chinese Politics in the Hu Jintao Era: New Leaders, New Challenges: New Leaders, New Challenges. New York: Routledge press.
Yiu-chung Wong(2005). From Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin: Two Decades of Political Reform in the People’s Republic of China. Massachusetts: University press of America.
Yoichi Funabashi (2007). The Peninsula Question: A Chronicle of the Second Korean Nuclear Crisis. Washington DC: Brookings Institution press.
Zheng Yongnien and Lance L. P. Gore(2015). China Entering the Xi Jinping Era. New York: Routledge press.

英文期刊
Aaron Friedberg(2015). “The Sources of Chinese Conduct: Explaining Beijing’s Assertiveness.” The Washington Quarterly 37(4): 42-144.
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Andrew Mertha (2009). “’Fragmented Authoritarianism 2.0:’ Political Pluralization in the Chinese Policy Process.” The China Quarterly 200: 995-1012.
Andrew S. Erickson and Michael S. Chase(2011). “Informatization and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy.” In Philip Saunders, Christopher Yung, Michael Swaine and Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang (eds.), The Chinese Navy: Expanding Cababilities, Evolving Roles, pp.250-260. Washington D.C.: National Defense University.
Ashton B. Carter and Jennifer C. Bulkeley(2007), “America’s Strategic Response to China’s Military Modernization.” Harvard Asia Pacific Review 9(1): 50-52.
Bates Gill and James Mulvenon(2002), “Chinese Military-Related Think Tanks and Research Institutions.” The China Quarterly 171: 617-624.
Betty Glad(2002), “Political Leadership: Some Methodological Considerations.” In Linda O. Valenty and Ofer Feldman (eds.), Political Leadership for the New Century: Personality and Behavior among American Leaders, p. 10. Connecticut: Praeger Publisher Press
Bonnie S, Glaser and Philip C. Saunders(2002), “Chinese Civilian Foreign Policy Research Institutes: Evolving Roles and Increasing Influence,” The China Quarterly 171: 597-616,
Bonnie S. Glaser and Melissa E. Murphy(2009). “Soft Power with Chinese Characteristic: The Ongoing Debate.” In Carola McGiffert (ed.), Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States: Competition and Cooperation in the Developing World, pp. 15-16. Washington D. C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies press.
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Szue-chin Philip Hsu(2010). “Reappraising the Debate and Practice of U.S. Strategic Ambiguity/Clarity in Cross-Strait Relations.” The Pacific Review, 23( 2), pp. 139-162
Szue-chin Philip Hsu(2010). “Reappraising the Debate and Practice of U.S. Strategic Ambiguity/Clarity in Cross-Strait Relations.” The Pacific Review 23(2):139-162.
Valerie M. Hudson(2007). Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory. Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group Inc. press.
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Xufeng Zhu(2009). “The Influence of Think Tanks in the Contemporary Chinese Policy Process: Different Ways and Mechanisms,” Asian Survey 49(2): 333- 357.
Xufeng Zhu(2011). “Government Advisors for the Authorities or Advocates in the Public? The Roles of Think Tanks in China from the Perspective of Regional Variations.” The China Quarterly 207: 668-686
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You Ji(2016). “Fragmented Party Control of the Gun: Civil-Military Relation in China,” In Kjeld Erik Brødsgaard (ed.), Chinese Politics as Fragmented Authoritarianism: Earthquakes Energy and Environment, pp.204-222. New York: Routledge press.

英文網路資料
Ben Bland(2015). “Xi-Ma meeting puts focus on US rift with presidential contender,” Financial Times. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/59c4fb3e-8612-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html.2017/04/25檢索。
Herington, J; Lee, K (2014), “ The limits of global health diplomacy: Taiwan''s observer status at the world health assembly.” https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/2551679/1/12992_2014_Article_71.PMC4197227.pdf. 2017/09/15檢索。
International Crisis Group(2013). Dangerous Waters: China-Japan Relations on the Rocks, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/china/dangerous-waters-china-japan-relations-rocks. 2017/09/15檢索。
International Crisis Group(2014), Old Scores and New Grudges: Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/china/old-scores-and-new-grudges-evolving-sino-japanese-tensions. 2017/09/15檢索。
Jonathan Herington and Kelly Lee(2014). “The Limits of Global Health Diplomacy: Taiwan’s Observer Status at the World Health Assembly,” Globalization and Health, https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/2551679/1/12992_2014_Article_71.PMC4197227.pdf. . 2017/10/15檢索。
Jonathan Herington and Kelly Lee, “The Limits of Global Health Diplomacy: Taiwan’s Observer Status at the World Health Assembly,” Globalization and Health, https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/2551679/1/12992_2014_Article_71.PMC4197227.pdf. 2017/09/15檢索。
Richard C. Bush III(2015). “What the historic Ma-Xi meeting could mean for cross-Strait relations,” The Brookings Institute, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/11/09-ma-xi-meeting-singapore-bush2017/04/25檢索。
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Zheng Wang(2015),.“The Real Reason the Xi-Ma Meeting Was Historic,” The Diplomat 9,http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/the-real-reason-the-ma-xi-meeting-was-historic/。2017/04/25檢索。
 
 
 
 
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