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題名:兩岸南南合作之跨域治理
作者:孫榮平
作者(外文):Jung-Ping Sun
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:公共事務管理研究所
指導教授:汪明生
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2018
主題關鍵詞:資訊整合理論社會判斷理論互動管理跨域治理兩岸南南合作Interaction Managementcross-domain governanceInformation Integration TheorySocial Judgment Theorycross-strait south-south cooperation
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自1987年政府開放探親後,兩岸關係發展,高低起伏,時而緩和、時而惡化,2016年執政黨再次輪替,蔡英文總統2016年5月20日就職演說,主張維持台海兩岸和平穩定的現狀,不提「九二共識」,兩岸關係從此明顯倒退,官方協商大門迅及關閉,兩岸兩會協商機制中斷,僵局至今無法化解。而高雄面臨經濟發展停滯、產業結構尚未轉型、缺乏重大投資項目、空氣污染嚴重、就業機會短缺、人口外流、人口結構老化、過度舉債、財政困難等。在如此險峻的情勢之下,高雄該如何走出自已的路,殊值探究。本研究倡議「兩岸南南合作」,乃為打破此一困境之作法,其意指台灣南部與大陸南方,依據法理與現實,淡化主權聚焦民生,透過兩岸城市地區與民間產學團體的寬面合作,以增進青年就業與基層融合。
本研究以公共事務管理整合參考架構(PAM)為基本理論,複以跨域治理應用研究架構,結合判斷與決策分析理論方法探討個體認知、以及個體與群體行為探討兩岸南南合作議題,並以南台灣青年前往大陸就業創業作為研究課題案例。個體認知以資訊整合理論(IIT)、社會判斷理論(SJT);群體行為以互動管理(IM)、公聽會質性分析為研究方法。
以雙PAM整合參考架構來解析「兩岸南南合作之跨域治理」之中層次治理。IIT探討受測者是以何種資訊整合模式來整合「經濟效益」與「社會支持」的資訊。研究結果顯示,以因子圖形、統計檢定、關鍵測試後,75%受測者判定以等權重平均模式,意即在政策支持下,前往大陸就業創業的支持程度決定於經濟效益與社會支持的心理值與權重間乘積的和,整體支持度的變動可能來自心理值或權重值的變動。提高社會支持的心理值或權重,將可提升整體支持程度。而以SJT操作受試者群體的價值判斷,結果顯示,經濟效益函數型態為正斜率線,權重35%;社會支持函數型態為正斜率線,權重為65%,決策者本身認知一致性判定係數R2為0.95,其結果分析為兩岸南南合作在政策支持下,前往大陸就業創業的可行性程度有95%受到經濟效益與社會支持之直線關係影響,顯示出利用SJT直線迴歸模式來推測往大陸就業創業的可行性程度,群體內產出共識,且均具高滿意度以及具相當可信度。就互動會議、公聽會之群體互動結果,產官學等對於兩岸南南合作、高雄廈門城市合作、青年就業創業等議題,在聚焦民生下,均樂觀其成,且由民間產學團體來推動,為當前較為可行且具有成效的做法。
亦即以廈門-高雄做為兩岸南南合作城市地區合作,是符合當前高雄與兩岸關係的選項。而兩岸交流合作之間的體制建構其核心價值乃在共建一個水平協商的機制。因此,推動「兩岸南南合作」既是挑戰也是機遇。以南台灣的高雄作為兩岸合作地區與城市的突破口,可免於僵固於主權的堅持,由民間產學團來推動雙方的交流,在不碰政治為原則,即不操作選舉、不觸及統獨、不談論主權,擺脫政治色彩,只作經濟與社會文化的交流,冀求抓住問題核心,從基層出發,以民生為本的兩岸城市地區合作才是兩岸交流王道。
Since the government’s policy that the vetrans could back to mainland hina to visit their relatives in 1987, the development of cross-straits relationship fluctuated, sometimes easing and sometimes worsening. In 2016, political parties have alternated again. President Cai Yingwen took office on May 20, 2016, advocating the maintenance of peace and stability across straits. Without mentioning the "1992 Consensus" caused official communication to close. The suspension of the consultation mechanism between Straits Exchange Foundation(SEF) and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits(ARATS) have not resolved the stalemate.The informal consultation mechanism between the two sides of the strait has stopped and the stalemate has not been resolved.
Kaohsiung is facing economic stagnation, industrial structure is not transformed , lack of major investment projects, serious air pollution, shortage of employment opportunities, out flow of labor force, aging of the population structure, excessive debt, financial difficulties In such a dangerous situation, how Kaohsiung should go out of its own path is worth exploring.
This study explores the PAM as the basic theory, and uses cross-domain governance as applied research framework, and combines judgment and decision analysis theories to discuss individual cognition, as well as individual and group behaviors, to discuss cross-strait South-South cooperation issues. Southern Taiwan youth went to the mainland for employment and entrepreneurship as a case study. Research methods worked on Information Integration Theory (IIT) and Social Judgment Theory (SJT) with exploring Individual cognition, and Interaction Management (IM), and Public Hearing Analysis with exploring group behavior.
The study used the double PAM to analyze the middle level governance of cross-domain governance of South-South cooperation across the Strait. IIT explores what kind of information integration model is used to integrate information on "economic benefits" and "social support." The results show 75% of the subjects were judged to have an equal weighted average mode after after confirmation of factor graphs, statistical verifications, and key tests, which means under policies support, the degree of support for employment to mainland China depands on the sum of the product of the value and weight of economic benefits and social support, and the change of overall support come from the changes in both psychological values and weight. It will increase overall suppory by raising the value or weight of social support. The value judgment with SJT-operated to subjects shows that the economic performance function type is a positive slope line with a weight of 35%; the social support function type is a positive slope line with a weight of 65%; R2 of the coefficient of determination of decision-makers were 0.95. The results show that 95% of the feasibility of going to the mainland for employment and entrepreneurship is affected by the linear of economic benefits and social support, indicting that using SJT linear regression model to speculate the feasibility of employment and entrepreneurship in the mainland, consensus output within group are both high satisfaction and credibility. As the results of IM, public hearings of group interaction, industry, official and university are all optimistic about the cross-strait South-South cooperation, Kaohsiung Xiamen city cooperation, and youth employment and entrepreneurship issues that focus on people’s livelihood. It is promoted by the private industries, schools, and institutions, which will be the feasibile and effective approach for the time being.
This study argued that Xiamen-Kaohsiung as the cross-strait south-south cooperation city-to-city cooperation is the current option of Kaohsiung and cross-strait relations. The core value of the institutional construction in cross-strait exchange and cooperation is the establishment of equal consultation mechanism. Therefore, they were both challenges and opportunities to promot “ cross-strait south-south cooperation”.Adopting Kaohsiung as a breakthough point of regions and cities for cross-strait cooperation. It can avoid insisting of sovereignity. Let the private industries, schools, and institutions to promote cross-straits exchange without involving politics which does not operate election, does not touch unificationand, independence, and sovereignity. Only engage in economic and social cultural exchanges that are beneficial to the public. It starts from the grassroots level to catch the core of the problem, cross-sraits city-to-city cooperation based on people''s livelihood is kingly way cross-straits exchange and cooperation.
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