東亞區域金融合作的政治經濟分析 1997-2012__臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

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題名：	東亞區域金融合作的政治經濟分析 1997-2012
作者：	黃美鳳
作者(外文)：	Mei-Fong Huang
校院名稱：	國立臺灣大學
系所名稱：	政治學研究所
指導教授：	蕭全政
學位類別：	博士
出版日期：	2013
主題關鍵詞：	偏差；偏差動員；清邁倡議；區域債券市場合作；人民幣國際化；bias；mobilization of bias；Chiang Mai Initiative；regional bond market cooperation；RMB internationalization
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:0 點閱:16

中文摘要
1997年夏天泰銖遽貶引發了亞洲金融危機，重創許多東亞國家經濟，也激起東亞國家展開對話，針對得自亞洲金融危機的教訓，推動區域金融合作。1999年起，金融議題成為「東協加三」合作領域之一，而後以「東協加三」為平台的區域金融合作聚焦在建立緊急流動性工具、發展區域債券市場以及區域貨幣合作三方面。本研究即以「偏差」和「偏差動員」概念，針對上述三個主要的區域金融合作議題進行研究，藉由探討東亞國家，尤其是較具資源和影響力的中國和日本，對既有區域金融與貨幣制度安排所隱含之「偏差」之好惡，以及對區域金融合作中出現的新的金融與貨幣制度安排之偏好，分析其在參與區域金融合作時的立場與行動，並探討和解釋東亞區域金融合作的發展。
建立區域緊急流動性工具的合作始於2000年日本提出清邁倡議獲得「東協加三」全體支持，這一緊急流動性合作發展迄今超過十年，成果豐碩，如今已發展為總換匯規模達2,400億美元的多邊儲備池，並建立了特定投票權重分配的權力結構和決策模式，突破東亞區域合作普遍採行的「東協模式」。在此合作議題的討論中，本研究指出，日本在亞洲金融危機中提出亞洲貨幣基金倡議，已顯示其欲建立具區域自主性的緊急紓困工具，使美國不再能利用國際貨幣基金的紓困角色，強迫東亞國家接受新自由主義發展模式。雖然因中日之間存在競爭區域領導地位的關係，使中國未對亞洲貨幣基金倡議給予支持，但中日間的競爭關係也促使中國選擇以「東協加三」取代「東協加一」(東協加日本)作為東亞區域金融合作的對話架構，並促成清邁倡議及清邁倡議多邊化合作。
甚至，在與美國領銜的全球主義對抗中，中日策略性地集結在東亞主義的旗號下，並建立共享區域領導地位且相互制衡的權力分配模式。雖然清邁倡議多邊合作中有著「IMF連結」，使合作成員在面對危機時的緊急提款須以提出IMF紓困談判為前提，但不與「IMF連結」掛勾的可動用資金比例逐漸升高，且「東協加三」亦藉建立「『東協加三』總體經濟研究辦公室」來培養東亞國家自主監管區域金融事務的能力，這些發展凸顯出在中日既競爭又合作的關係下，東亞區域緊急流動性合作將朝向捍衛區域發展自主性的方向前進。
在東亞區域債券市場合作的討論中，本研究欲探討東亞國家在促進區域債券市場整合以求債券市場成長，以及維持跨境資本流動管制以確保匯率穩定之間，有何偏好、如何取捨，及其對區域債券市場合作之影響。本研究透過分析《2011年匯兌安排與匯兌限制年度報告》，發現多數東亞國家仍維持程度不等的跨境資本流動管制，此意謂東亞國家雖以發展本幣債券市場為矯正資產負債表上的「雙重錯置」問題的合作方案，但實際上多以維持匯率穩定為優先政策，不願撤除跨境資本管制以促進債券市場發展。是以，在自願性合作模式下，日本和新加坡雖偏好促進跨境債券交易，但中國和泰國則旨在藉由區域債市合作為境內基礎建設吸引投資資金，並未有意擴大區域債市整合。再加上，東亞國家企業規模偏中小型、企業經營透明度低等問題，使市場不易取得可靠的信用評等，即使東亞國家推出了「亞洲債券基金」和「亞洲債券市場倡議」，東亞國家本幣債券市場規模雖有增大，但多並未能顯著提升本幣債券市場佔國內融資結構的比例，也未能矯正依賴銀行融資的現象。
在區域貨幣合作議題上，本研究指出既有「東亞美元本位體系」中隱含促成日本長期通縮的「偏差」，故日本亟欲藉由區域貨幣合作，使東亞國家取消釘住美元的匯率政策；而亞洲金融危機凸顯出亞幣釘住美元的不合理性和潛在風險，2008年美國次級貸款違約引發全球金融危機和美元貶值，則使中國主張應改革以美元為主要準備貨幣的國際貨幣體系，並感到迫切需要進行外匯準備多元化，這兩個事件恰為日本鼓吹東亞區域貨幣合作提供適當時機。本研究分析了三種主要區域貨幣合作方案(G-3貨幣籃、平行流通亞洲貨幣單位，以及日本參與東亞國家集體盯住美元)之內涵，指出各方案隱含的利害得失，以及中國和日本對三種方案的偏好。結果發現，走向區域共同貨幣合作的方案均可打破「東亞美元本位體系」，故為日本所偏好；東協國家則早將發展區域共同貨幣納為長期合作目標，惟策略上將先行促成東協共同貨幣，藉以在東亞貨幣合作中爭取較大利益；而區域共同貨幣合作雖可達成減少依賴美元和避免中國的外匯準備價值貶損，但歐元區債務違約問題亦凸顯共同貨幣合作的缺陷，即共同貨幣區內成員的財政問題將使所有成員須共同承擔匯率大幅波動，且區內富有國家還需分擔更重的紓困角色。因此，中國在2009年加速推展人民幣國際化，成為參與區域共同貨幣合作之外的另一選擇。
總的來說，既然東亞國家尚不具備推動共同貨幣合作的總體經濟條件，且區域共同貨幣合作有其缺陷，中國可望加速推動人民幣國際化，作為降低對美元依賴的方案，其對區域共同貨幣合作的需求亦降低。而由於人民幣國際化具有鬆動「東亞美元本位體系」的效果，且人民幣國際化「倒逼」其利率與匯率市場化後，預期人民幣長期升值，有利日本擺脫通縮，亦為日本所樂見。

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Abstract
The Asian financial crisis in 1997 heavily damaged some East Asian countries and induced cooperative dialogues among them. In 1999, financial cooperation officially staged itself among other topics of regional cooperation in ASEAN Plus Three (APT). Regional financial dialogues after 1999 focused on three important issues: emergency liquidity support, regional bond market and the birth of a possible common currency. In this dissertation, the concepts of “bias” and “mobilization of bias” are mobilized for analyzing the development of regional financial cooperation in the three issues.
The Chiang Mai Initiative initiated by Japan and supported by APT unanimously in 2000 started the cooperation on emergency liquidity support, and has evolved into a multilateralized reserve pool of 240 billion dollars in size. Moreover, competition between China and Japan for leadership in East Asia not only stifled the AMF proposal, but also promotes CMI and CMIM. China and Japan, the biggest two in East Asia, share the common interest and sentiment as a camp of East Asian regionalism resist the globalist drive led by the U.S. for regaining regional autonomy on development path. The later developments in reducing the proportion of IMF-linked bail-out resources and the establishment of AMRO show consistency on pursuing regional autonomy as the management of financial crisis is concerned.
As for the regional bond market cooperation, the dissertation offers its explanation of APT members’ choices between integrating market to enlarge regional bond market and keeping regulation on cross-border movement of capital to stabilize exchange rate. By analyzing the Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2011 and the actions that APT countries took in promoting the Asia Bond Fund and the Asian Bond Market Initiative, the author defines various preferences of individual APT countries for bond market cooperation and the priority of preserving exchange rate stable for some of them. Therefore, though the scale of local currency bond outstanding grows, mobilization of local bond markets is still in a low level. In addition, dispersed actions of APT countries in ABMI cooperation didn’t help enhancing the role of bond market in domestic finance, nor balancing the existing over reliance of local funding demand on banking.
It is presented that the bias of the existing “East Asia dollar standard system” has contributed to Japan’s long lasting deflation. That’s why Japan keens to encourage regional monetary cooperation in East Asia for decomposing the system. Given this desire of Japan, the 1997 Asia financial crisis and the 2008 American subprime mortgage default presented golden chances for Japan to persuade her neighbors to join regional monetary cooperation. However, moving toward a regional common currency though helps reducing heavy reliance on dollar and releasing worries on devaluation of dollar reserves, the default of Euro zone countries extends the flaw of common currency cooperation as well. Considering that it takes time to form a regional common currency, as well as the issues declared in the flaws of Euro case, China unilaterally accelerates controllable RMB internationalization in 2009 as an alternative. Therefore, it is very unlikely to set off the necessary regional cooperation in constructing a common currency in a decade. RMB internationalization will continue to consume China’s motivation for participating common currency cooperation in East Asia. Besides, RMB internationalization is an acceptable solution to Japan for it’s helpful to decomposing the East Asia dollar standard system.

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