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題名:「結盟」對權力轉移之影響:「修昔底德陷阱」之重估
作者:馬準威
作者(外文):Chun-Wei Ma
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
指導教授:張登及
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2019
主題關鍵詞:修昔底德陷阱權力轉移結盟理論美中關係戰爭與和平
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本文欲解決「修昔底德陷阱」理論化不足之問題,並檢討「修昔底德陷阱」是否必然帶來支配性強權與崛起強權戰爭悲劇,試以權力轉移理論及結盟理論,補充「修昔底德陷阱」命題,同時將「結盟」變數加入權力轉移過程,觀察其對「修昔底德陷阱」發生戰爭結果之影響。具體作法為:一、以「修昔底德陷阱」、權力轉移理論及結盟理論互為補充,建構具操作性的分析架構。二、利用所建構之分析架構剖析支配性強權與崛起強權間的結盟類型,探索不同類型與戰爭發生之關連。三、將研究結論套用在美中「修昔底德陷阱」走向分析上,以助吾設立未來美中關係之觀察指標。
經研究後發現,強權在權力轉移過程中的「結盟」型態,直接影響支配性強權與崛起強權發生戰爭之機率。本文具體將支配性強權與崛起強權在權力轉移過程中的結盟分為四大類型:一、支配性強權與崛起強權直接相互結盟;二、支配性強權與崛起強權的重疊型結盟;三、支配性強權與崛起強權的排他性同盟均勢型;四、支配性強權與崛起強權排他性同盟非均勢型。利用艾利森的「修昔底德陷阱」案例分析後發現,最終發生戰爭的案例均集中在支配性強權與崛起強權的排他性同盟均勢型,其他類型的結盟則有助消弭強權的權力轉移戰爭。總體來說,「修昔底德陷阱」並非支配性強權與崛起強權間的陷阱,而是種「結盟陷阱」。
此外,運用本文建立之分析框架觀察美中關係發現,兩國權力對比貼近「均勢」狀態,彼此正處「修昔底德陷阱」溫床階段。目前美國同盟與中國潛在同盟間的排他性正在形成,惟中國潛在同盟暫無轉化為軍事同盟之跡象,故暫時消弭兩國間原本因實力相近可能爆發戰爭的風險。若中國能持續採取「結伴不結盟」政策,讓美中排他性均勢同盟不發生甚或建構美中盟國重疊乃至雙方直接結盟,則美中「修昔底德陷阱」悲劇仍能受到阻卻。
This thesis tries to enhance the theoreticalization of Thucydides''s Trap and to revisit that Thucydides''s Trap predicts the war must happen between dominate power and rising power. It uses power transition theory and alliance theory for improving Thucydides''s Trap proposition in order to build an operational framework which can use for analyzing Thucydides''s Trap war. In process, there are three steps. First, to make a theorical framework by Thucydides''s Trap, power transition theory and alliance theory. Second, using the framework to typify the alliance of dominate power and rising power for observing the influence on the process of power transition. Third, to analyze U.S. and China whether or not sinks into war; Besides, to offer the researcher indicators being used to observe U.S.-China relations in the future.
According to the finding of this thesis, the status of great powers’ alliance would influence the probabilities of war between dominate power and rising power directly. There are four typies of their relations which includes rivals’ alliance, inclusive alliance, parity exclusive alliance, and asymmetry exclusive alliance. After reviewing Thucydides''s Trap cases that Gramham Allision gave us, we discover that all dominate power and rising power war occurs only when the parity exclusive alliance had exsisted; Furthermore, the other alliance tpyes can bring the peaceful outcome. In concluion, the nature of Thucydides''s Trap is not a trap between great powers but between alliances.
Using the framework being built by this thesis to analyze U.S. and China, we could tell the relative capability between them is in parity status. That is to say, U.S. and China quite possiblely had indulged in Thucydides''s Trap. However, the exclusive alliance between U.S. alliance and China’s potential alliance is still forming. China hasn’t built it owns military alliance so far, so it reduces the risk of the war breaking out. If China can keep the policy “building partnership rather than alliance”, it could stop exclusive alliance forming and then to interrupt the war tragedy occuring. In addition, to build rivals’ alliance between U.S. and China is also a good way to vanish Thucydides''s Trap.
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劉小四,〈淺析美韓軍事同盟發展前景〉,《南方論刊》,第3期,2018年,頁39-42。
劉秀嬌,〈論奕?與晚清外交〉,《哈爾濱學院學報》,第38卷,第11期,2017年11月,頁101-104。
蔡明彥,〈美國與中國軍事交流之發展與限制(2004~2007年)〉,《歐美研究》,第39卷,第3期,2009年,頁533-566。
蔡東杰、秦偉騰,〈中國「絲綢之路經濟帶」戰略對中亞之影響:從地緣政治觀點分析〉,《全球政治評論》,第62期,2018年4月,頁57-74。
蔡維心,〈美韓同盟的昔與今:從同盟理論觀之〉,《東亞研究》,第46卷,第1期,2015年1月,頁66-105。
鄧 曉,〈提洛同盟的反思---從建立到伯羅奔尼撒戰爭前夕〉,《重慶師院學報》,第3期,1990,頁83-89。
蕭功秦,〈蘇聯改革失敗二十年後的反思〉,《社會觀察》,第7期,2011年,頁12-14。
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三、中文專書論文
張小明,〈後冷戰時期新中國的四次對外戰略抉擇〉,收錄於劉山、薛君度主編,曲星副主編,《中國外交新論》,北京:世界知識出版社,1997,頁1-20。
鄒繼楚,〈經濟成長:理論與台灣經驗之省思〉,收錄於于宗先、吳惠林主編,《經濟發展理論與政策之演變》,台北:中華經濟研究院出版,1996,頁71-131。
四、中文網路資料
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七、英文專書論文
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