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題名:大國爭霸的成敗歸因及其權力競爭機制:「國家功能替代」的解析途徑
作者:葉曉迪
作者(外文):Xiao-Di Ye
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
指導教授:明居正
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2019
主題關鍵詞:權力競爭爭霸成敗權力轉移大國關係功能替代
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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自二戰結束以來,國際體系的性質因為「核恐怖平衡」、「國家生存權的合法化」以及後冷戰時期的「國家間相互依賴程度加深」而大體進入「大國戰爭克制」的時代。作為驅使國家做出行為選擇的結構性誘因,國際體系性質的轉變不可避免地對國家,特別是大國之間的策略互動和行為模式產生衝擊。一個比較明顯的現象是:「戰爭,作為國際關係歷史中的常用選項,在二戰後的大國之間的權力競爭中逐步退讓至最後選項。」這不僅意味著,傳統爭霸大國之間通過戰爭實現快速權力轉移的首要選項受到極大的限制,還使大國之間的權力競爭的時間與方式更具長久性和複雜性。那麼,這種有趣的現象也就產生下列重要的研究問題:(1)在戰爭選項受到限制的前提下,大國之間的權力轉移將通過何種方式實現?其中的權力競爭機制是怎樣的?(2)何種權力競爭方式更有助於大國最終問鼎霸權?(3)對於具有明顯權力差距的崛起國而言,如何通過和平的權力競爭方式突破源自於霸權國產生的結構性制約,實現最終的權力轉移?
為了更好回答和解決上述問題,本文先是系統性地回顧和批判既有關於「大國權力競爭」研究後發現,現有的文獻存在以下問題,如缺乏一個兼容兩個爭霸大國視角的權力競爭的分析架構等。在辨析既有研究不足的基礎上,本文以結構現實主義作為理論基底,並修正了Kenneth N. Waltz提出的相對實力分佈為「單一變量」的假定,將國家功能的相似性進一步修正為「國家功能分殊化」,並操作化為「國家功能替代性的高低」,使其成為結構現實主義中的第二個變量。其中,相對實力是「主自變量」,功能替代性為「次自變量」,由此組合成一個2X2的核心解釋模型。根據解釋模型,本文提出一個核心假說:「大國的對外功能由安全領域、經濟領域和價值觀領域組成,這三個功能領域構成大國權力競爭的主要路徑,即:如若爭霸大國B能夠在安全、經濟和價值觀領域提供全面替代爭霸大國A的對外功能供給,那大國B便能在權力競爭中獲得最終勝利。」同時,為了能夠更好地驗證核心假說,本文將其拆分成三個輔助假說:(1)在二戰前戰爭頻發的多極體系下,兩個大國在爭霸過程中,能夠提供較高國家功能替代性的一方因受到其他國家制衡的強度較低,而取得最終的勝利。(2)在二戰後大國戰爭克制的兩極體系下,兩個極國各自領導一個爭霸聯盟,國家功能替代性高低成為雙方主要競爭途徑,如若兩極的一方所能提供的功能替代性較低,那麼該極國的權力將流失,同時受到制衡的強度較高。(3)在大國戰爭克制的單極體系下,如果體系中崛起國的相對實力較強,同時又能對體系內其他單元(行為體)提供可替代霸權國的國家功能,那麼崛起國就有可能規避制衡,進而得以與霸權國進行權力競爭;相反,如果該大國無法提供可替代性的國家功能,那麼對該國的制衡則有可能形成。
為了驗證上述三個輔助假說與核心假說,本文選取了三種體系類型下的大國爭霸作為實證案例,它們分別是:拿破崙時期的英法爭霸、冷戰時期的美蘇爭霸以及21世紀以來的中美權力競爭。這三個案例因為體系類型的不同、時間的不同、爭霸大國的不同等要素構成了三個「最不相似案例」,並且在每個案例中,爭霸大國所採用的各自的競爭方式,最終導致了勝敗的結局,因而構成了「案例內差異」。同時,每一個案例對應著一個前文提出的輔助假說。倘若本文所提出的解釋模型及其運作邏輯分別在這三個案例中得到驗證,那麼我們就有理由相信本文我提出的核心假說是成立的。在三個案例的六組大國爭霸關係中,我們不難發現,英國、美國和中國都(或階段性地)為體系內的成員國提供了替代性較高的功能供給,從而獲得最終(階段性)的勝利,使本文的核心假說獲得驗證。可見,大國權力競爭的功能替代邏輯是成立的。
就理論層面而言,國家功能替代論對現有研究做出如下幾個理論的推進與補充,包括:第一,從權力競爭的視角提供了一個較為系統和完整解釋大國爭霸成敗原因的分析,展示了更為細緻化權力競爭過程,避免落入「經濟興衰論」和「週期興衰論」的線性邏輯中。第二,對結構現實主義的單一變量做出修正,將國家功能視為第二變量,拓寬了結構現實主義的理論適用範圍。同時,功能替代論所具有的動態性和時序性,為結構現實主義注入新的動態元素,有助於緩解它長期被詬病的理論僵化和無法解釋變遷現象的問題。第三,功能替代論的視角使權力轉移從自變量轉向了因變量。第四,功能替代論有效地橋接了「霸權現實主義」與「均勢現實主義」的理論斷層。在功能替代論的視角中,我們可以清晰地看到爭霸的大國如何在提供較高替代性的功能來規避制衡的同時,最大化地獲取權力轉移的幅度,突破均勢現實主義所強調制衡限制,最終問鼎霸權,轉入霸權現實主義的理論邏輯。就現實層面而言,功能替代論還可以為現實政治提供相關的解析視角。在理解Trump的退群行為時,功能替代論認為美國正在進行它從二戰以來提供功能的調適,扭轉逐漸對自身不利功能供給,但這事實上也為崛起國——中國提供了戰略機遇與空間。根據功能替代論的分析,霸權國功能調適的成敗與崛起股功能替代性的高低,將導致四種不同類型的情境——爭霸大國二元對立、霸權國功能主導、崛起國功能主導、金德伯格陷阱。
當然,每個理論框架都具有明顯的範圍限度,功能替代論也具有不足之處:第一,功能替代論堅持現實主義「國家中心論」的核心要素,對非國家行為體關注較少,並排除了國家的非理性行為。第二,功能替代論的主要研究對象為大國,對中小國家的作用關注不足。第三,功能替代論的分析層次為國家間與體系層次,無法解釋國家內部變遷對大國爭霸成敗造成的影響。
Since the end of World War II, the nature of the international system has been entering an era of war restraint due to the nuclear terror balance, legalization of state’s right to survive, and the deepening interdependence between states. As a structural incentive, the changing nature of international system imposes an inevitably impact on state’s behavioral pattern. The war restraint not only means that the first choice for power transition has largely limited, but also indicates that a longer and more complicate power competition will occur. Such phenomenon triggers some important research questions: (1) How does the power transition happen when the war is limited? What is the mechanism of power competition? (2) Which mode of power competition may be more conducive for great powers to achieve the ultimate hegemonic position? (3) How could the rising power break the structural constraint through peaceful approach to realize the power transition with the hegemonic power?
To answer these questions, this dissertation first conducts a critical literature review on the existing studies to identify the theoretical inadequacies, and then modified Waltz’s structural realism by modifying the state function as an important variable. By doing so, there are two independent variables existing in structural realism: the relative capability is the primary independent variable and the state functional substitution is the secondary independent variable. A 2x2 explanatory model is formulated in this dissertation, serving as the theoretical tool. Based on explanatory model, this dissertation proposes the core hypothesis: if the great power A could provide a higher state functional substitution in security, economic and value realms than great power B, the great power A will be likely to achieve the hegemonic position. The author applies three most different cases, including the power competition between British and France in Napoleon period, the United States and Soviet Union competition in Cold War period, and the Sino-US relations in 21st century, to testify the core hypothesis. In the three most different case studies, we could find that the British, United States and China won the finally or periodically by providing a higher state functional substitution than their competitors, which verify the core hypothesis.
At the theoretical level, the state functional substitution theory has contributed to the existing studies in following aspects: (1) offering a more systemic explanation on how the great powers defeat their competitors to reach the hegemonic position. (2) A theoretical modification on structural realism by regarding the state function as the second independent variable. (3) Seeing the power transition as the dependent variable rather than independent variable. (4) Bridging the theoretical gap between hegemonic realism and balancing realism. At the practical level, the state functional substitution theory is also helpful in understanding Donald Trump’s withdraw from several international institutions and international organizations.
Certainly, the state functional substitutional theory has its limit. First, this theory insists on the state-centric assumption, which makes it pay less attention to the non-state actors. Second, the major objectives of state functional substitutional theory are the great powers, which means that the middle and small powers play less role in the explanatory model. Third, such theory locates at the system level, which is unable to explain the domestic factors.
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