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題名:美中戰略競合對我國國家安全戰略影響之研究:新古典現實主義的觀點
作者:劉鎮燈 引用關係
作者(外文):Chen-Teng Liu
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:國際政治研究所
指導教授:蔡東杰
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2016
主題關鍵詞:美中競合戰略三角新古典現實主義戰略文化國家安全戰略US-China RelationsStrategic TriangleNeo-classical RealismStrategic CultureNational Security Strategy
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 點閱點閱:120
摘要
  本文為美中戰略競合對我國國家安全戰略影響之研究,旨在透過對美中戰略競合脈絡與現況的討論,進一步探究二國戰略互動對我國國家安全戰略規劃之政策意涵。誠然,美中台三角關係為當前亞太區域安全之核心,三組雙邊關係牽動區域情勢的調整與變遷。值得注意的是,傳統戰略三角理論雖長於說明行為者間敵我關係變化及其策略應用,但單從體系結構立論而忽略國內單元層次因素,將無法觀察並詮釋行為者特定政策之意涵及其三邊關係的動態演進。有鑑於此,本研究結合新古典現實主義觀點,同時從國際體系與國內因素視角深入剖析美中台三角關係之發展,亦即探討外部環境壓力如何透過一國「國內政治過程」、「領導人決策風格」以及「公眾輿論」等國內因素而發生作用,以理解美中戰略競合對我國國家安全戰略之意涵。研究發現,無論從國際體系層次或國內單元層次分析,美中兩國在可預見的未來裡仍將維持既「競爭」又「合作」之戰略態勢,特別是,中國在「王道文化」與「先安內、再攘外」的戰略文化傳統下,更希冀以和平崛起消除國際社會對中國威脅論的疑慮。此一發展趨勢無疑為台灣提供拓展國家安全與國際經貿合作之契機,依新古典現實主義理論之觀點,只要政府充分運用自身優勢與外交議價,仍能在大國政治中實現最大利益。
Abstract
  This dissertation is a study on the influences of strategic competition and cooperation between the US and China on Taiwan’s national security strategy that seeks to understand the policy implications of US-China strategic interactions on Taiwan. The triangular relationship between the US, China and Taiwan currently stands at the heart of regional security in the Asia Pacific. Changes to any set of relations in the triangle – US-China, US-Taiwan or China-Taiwan – is directly linked with adjustments and transformations in regional relations. Although the strategic triangle model is useful in explaining changes in the relationship between actors, its negligence of domestic level variables leaves open questions regarding the driving force of change. Accordingly, adopting neo-classical realism and approaching the key problem from the systemic and domestic levels, this study attempts to understand the implications of US-China strategic competition on Taiwan by placing its focus on how external pressures influence domestic variables such as the political process, leadership style and public opinion. This study concludes that in the foreseeable future, the US and China will continue to maintain a situation of competition and cooperation. In particular, under foreign policy traditions of “benevolent governance” and “domestic problems first,” China seeks to dispel doubts and suspicions on its peaceful rise. Such development provides an opportunity for Taiwan to cooperate with China on national security and international trade. Based on the insights of neo-classical realism, if Taiwan can exploit its advantages and bargaining power effectively, the island nation stands the chance of realizing its interests amidst great power politics.
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〈王毅籲亞太成中美關係試驗田〉。《中央通訊社》,2013年9月21日,
〈布胡會 布希指扁是麻煩製造者〉。《聯合報》,2003年10月22日,A2版。
〈服貿協議關係兩岸後續談判〉。《中央通訊社》,2013年9月22日,
〈美明確表態:無義務為台作戰 國防部指華府台海政策已形成最新共識 台灣須有自我防衛決心 若兩岸軍力失衡對國安極為不利〉。《中國時報》,2004年12月15日,A5版。
〈陸對台開放80項 均為超WTO待遇 兩岸服貿協議簽了〉。《中國時報》,2013年6月22日,版A1。
〈開啟新航程 共築絲路夢〉。《新華網》,2015年3月28日,
〈稱IS盟友 菲組織威脅斬德人質〉。《聯合報》,2014年9月26日,版A21。
〈歐巴馬展決心 亞太盟友吃定心丸〉。《中時電子報》,2014年11月15日,
〈歐巴馬提台灣關係法 歐習會重申一個中國〉。《蘋果即時新聞》,2015年9月26日,
〈歐習會 建中美新型大國關係〉。《中時電子報》,2013年6月9日,
《中國的和平發展》。中華人民共和國國務院新聞辦公室,2011年9月。
張驥(2013)。〈中國外交決策的基本過程〉。《東方早報》,2013年3月18日,
五、網路資料來源
〈“一帶一路”內涵豐厚 意義深遠〉。《新華網》,2015年3月29日,
〈“一帶一路”具體方案出爐 中國四大區域全面開放〉。《新華網》,2015年3月29日,
〈人民日報首次權威定義習近平「四個全面」〉。《人民網》,2015年2月24日,
〈中日融冰 隔4年重啟安全對話〉,《中時電子報》,2015年3月20日,
〈中國抗議G7領導人『世界海疆紛爭』言論〉。《BBC中文網》,2015年6月9日,
〈王毅籲亞太成中美關係試驗田〉。《中央通訊社》,2013年9月21日,
〈弘揚“四個全面”主旋律 打造兩會報道正能量場〉。《人民網》,2015年3月11日,
〈批馬英九記者會華麗 林飛帆重申學運四訴求〉。《NOWnews》,
〈李登輝「釣魚台屬日說」引發總統筆戰〉。《BBC中文網》,2015年8月3日,
〈李登輝投書日媒 二戰時是日本人〉。《中央通訊社》,2015年8月20日,
〈服貿協議關係兩岸後續談判〉。《中央通訊社》,2013年9月22日,
〈奏響「四個全面」的時代強音〉。《新華網》,2015年3月15日,
〈美官員稱美亞太再平衡無法實現 華府急滅火〉,《中國新聞網》,
〈美國副國務卿:兩岸應該逐步建立互信機制〉。《中國評論新聞》,
〈軍售清單出爐 美售我4紀德艦8柴油潛艦〉。《中時晚報》,2001年4月24日。
〈香格里拉對話:美防長抨擊中國南海填海活動〉。《BBC中文網》,2015年5月30日,
〈特寫:習近平九提“中國夢”〉。《中新社》,2013年3月17日,
〈國防部:中國對台飛彈今年增200多枚〉。《中央廣播電台》,2012年9月3日,
〈習近平:承前啟後 繼往開來 繼續朝著中華民族偉大復興目標奮勇前進〉。《新華網》,2012年11月29日,
〈習近平同美國總統奧巴馬共同會見記者〉。《新華網》,2013年6月8日,
〈習近平談「中國夢」論述摘編〉。《新華網》,2014年11月15日,
〈習近平總書記深情闡述“中國夢”〉。《新華網》,2012年11月30日,
〈習總書記首談“四個全面”意味著什麼〉。《新華網》,2014年12月16日,
〈連戰將出席陸閱兵 總統:不宜參加〉。《中央通訊社》,2015年8月29日,
〈陸填海擴主權 南海6礁變島〉。《中時電子報》,2014年9月1日,
〈跌破眼鏡 歐巴馬獲諾貝爾和平獎〉。《Nownews》,2009年10月9日,
〈臺灣觀點:九合一選舉 為兩岸關係增添變數〉。《中央廣播電臺》,2014年12月2日,
〈歐巴馬展決心 亞太盟友吃定心丸〉。《中時電子報》,2014年11月15日,
〈歐巴馬將否決國會阻止伊核協議的立法〉。《中時電子報》,2015年7月15日,
〈歐習會 建中美新型大國關係〉,《中時電子報》,2013年6月9日,
〈歐習會 建中美新型大國關係〉。《中時電子報》,2013年6月9日,
〈歐習會 建中美新型大國關係〉。《中時電子報》,2013年6月9日,
陳一新(2015)。〈美國2015安全戰略 繞不開中國〉。《國政評論》,2015年2月12日,
蔡明彥(2009)。〈兩岸推動制度化協商下的美國兩岸政策〉。《中央日報》,2009年4月26日,

貳、英文部分
一、書籍
Amitage, Richard L., and Joseph S. Nye (2007). The U.S .- Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right through 2020. Washington, DC: CSIS.
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Bergsten, C. Fred et al. 2006. China: the Balance Sheet : What the World Needs to Know Now About the Emerging Superpower. N.Y.: Public Affairs.
Blair, Dennis C. and Carla A. Hill (2007). U.S. – China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course. Washington, DC: Council on Foreign Relations.
Brown, Michael E., Sean M. Lynn-Jones. and Steven E. Miller, ed. (1995). The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
Bush, Richard (2005). Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
Buzan, Barry (1983). People, States, and Fear: The National Security Problem in International Relations. London: Harvester Wheatsheaf.
Buzan, Barry, et al. (1993). The Logic of Anarchy: Neorealism to Structural Realism. New York: Columbia University Press.
Carr, Edward H. (1948). The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919-1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations, 2nd ed. London: Macmillan.
Christensen, Thomas J. (1996). Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict,1947-1958. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Cliff, Roger, Mark Burles, Michael S. Chase, Derek Eaton, and Kevin L. Pollpeter (2007). Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Anti-Access Strategies and Their Implications for the United States. Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation.
Cottam, Matha, et al. (2004). Introduction to Political Psychology. Mahwah, NJ and London: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Dougherty, James E., and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. (2001). Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey. N.Y.: Longman.
Evans, Peter, et al. (1993). Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Evera, Steven Van (1999). Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Finnemore, Martha (1996). National Interests in International Society. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Fiske, S., and S. E. Taylor (1991). Social Cognition. New York: MacGraw – Hill.
Friedberg, Aaron. 2012. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for the Mastery of Asia. N.Y.: Norton.
Gurtov, Mel, and Byong-Moo Hwang (1998). China’s Security: The New Roles of the Military. London: Lynne Rienner.
Hilsman, Roger (1990). The Politics of Policy Making in Defense and Foreign Affairs. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Jervis, Robert (1976). Perception and Misperception in World in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Katzenstein, Peter J., ed. (1996). The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics. New York: Columbia University Press.
Kegley, Charles W. Jr., and Eugene R. Wittkopf,eds (1996). American Foreign Policy: Pattern and Process. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Keohane, Robert O. (1986). Neorealism and Its Critics. N.Y.: Columbia University Press.
Khalilzad, Zalmay, and Ian O. Lesser (1998). Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century: Regional Future and US Strategy. Santa Monica: RAND.
Knorr, Klaus (1975). The Power of Nations: The Political Economy of International Relations. New York: Basic Books.
Lampton, David M. (2010). Power Constrained: Sources of Mutual Strategic Suspicion in U.S.- China Relations. Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research.
Lobell, Steven, Norrin Ripsman and Jeffrey Taliaferro, eds. (2009). Neoclassical Realism, the State and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mann, James (2004). Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush’s War Cabinet. London: Penguin Books.
McCormick, James M. (1992). American Foreign Policy and Process. Illinois: F. E. Peacock Publishers, Inc..
Mearsheimer, John J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y.: W.W. Norton & Company.
Morgenthau, Hans J. (1978). Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. N.Y.: Knopf.
Reilly, John, ed. (1995). American Public Opinion and U.S. .Foreign Policy. Chicago: Chicago Publishing House.
Rosecrance, Richard. and Arthur A. Stein, eds. (1993). The Domestic Bases of Grand Strategy. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Rosenau, James (1967). Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy. New York: Free Press.
Russett, Bruce (1990). Controlling the Sword: the Democratic Governance of National Security. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Russett, Bruce (1993). Grasping the Democratic Peace. N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Schweller, Randall L. (2006). Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Shlapak, David A., David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson (2009). A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
Skidmore. David. and Valerie M. Hudson, eds. (1993). The Limits of State Autonomy: Societal Groups and Foreign Policy Formulation. Boulder, Colo.: Westview
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Spruyt, Hendrik (1994). The Sovereign State and its Competitors: An Analysis of System Change. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Suettinger, Robert L. (2003). Beyond Tiananmen : The Politics of US-China Relations 1989-2000. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
Swaine, Michael D., and Ashley J. Tellis (2000). Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present and Future. Rand Corporation.
The Commission on America’s National Interest (2000). America’s National Interests. Washington DC: the Nixon Center.
Tsang, Steve, ed. (2006). If China Attacks Taiwan: Military Strategy, Political and Economics. New York: Routledge Press.
Walt,Stephen M. (1987). The Orgins of Alliances. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Waltz, Kenneth N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Wimmer, R. D. & Dominick, J. R. (2000). Mass Communication Research: An introduction. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Publishing.
Zakaria, Fareed (1998). From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

二、期刊論文
Acharya, Amitav, and Arabinda Acharya (2007). “The Myth of the Second Front: Localizing the ‘War on Terror’ in Southeast Asia.” The Washington Quarterly 30 (4): 75-90.
Al-Rodhan, Khalid R. (2007). “A Critique of the China Threat Theory: A Systematic Analysis.” Asian Perspective 31 (3): 41-66.
Baum, Matthew (2002). “Sex, Lies and War: How Soft News Brings Foreign Policy to the Inattentive Public.” American Political Science Review 96 (1): 91-109.
Bernstein, Richard and Ross Munro (1997). “The Coming Conflict with America.” Foreign Affairs76 (2): 18-32.
Breslin, Shaun (2009). “Understanding China’s Regional Rise: Interpretations, Identities and Implications.” International Affairs 85 (4): 817-835.
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Buzan, Barry (1991). “New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-First Century.” International Affairs 67 (3): 431-440.
Byman, Daniel, and Jennifer Lind (2010). “Pyongyang’s Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea.” International Security 35 (1): 44-74.
Campbell, Kurt M., and Derek F. Mitchell (2001). “Crisis in Taiwan Strait?” Foreign Affairs 80 (4): 14-25.
Caporaso, James A.(1997). “Across the Great Divide: Integrating Comparative and International Politics.” International Studies Quarterly 41 (4): 563-591.
Chace, James (1997). “The Dilemmas of the City upon a Hill.” World Policy Journal 14 (1): 105-107.
Chalk, Peter (2001). “Separatism and Southeast Asia: The Islamic Factor in Southern Thailand, Mindanao, and Aceh.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 24: 241-269.
Cheung,Tai Ming (2001). “The Influence of the Gun: China’s Central Military Commission and Its Relationship with the Military, Party, and State Decision-making Systems.” in David M. Lampton ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.
Christensen, Thomas (1999). “China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia.” International Security 23 (4): 49-80.
Christensen, Thomas (2001). “Posing Problem without Catching Up: China’s Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy.” International Security 25 (4): 5-40.
Christensen, Thomas (2006). “Fostering Stability or Creating a Monster? The Rise of China and U.S. Policy Toward East Asia.” International Security 31 (1):81-126.
Clark, Cal (2006). “The U.S. Balancing Role in Cross-Strait Relation: The Irony of Muddling Through.” Issue & Studies 42 (3): 122-138.
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Desker, Barry, and Arabinda Acharya (2004). “Targeting Islamist Terrorism in Asia Pacific: An Unending War.” Asia Pacific Review 11 (2): 60-80.
Desker, Barry, and Kumar Ramakrishna (2002). “Forging an Indirect Strategy in Southeast Asia.” The Washington Quarterly 25 (2): 161-176 .
Ding, Sheng (2008). “To Build a ‘Harmonious World’: China’s Soft Power Wielding in the Global South.” Journal of Chinese Political Science 13 (2): 194-195.
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三、官方文件
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四、網路資料來源
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Sun, Yun (2011). “Chinese Public Opinion: Shaping China’s Foreign Policy, or Shaped by It?” Brookings East Asia Commentary, December 2011, .
Yuan, Wen Jin (2012). “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and China’s Corresponding Strategies.” CSIS: A Freeman Briefing Report, June 2012, pp. 4-6, .


 
 
 
 
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