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題名：內閣制政治景氣循環
書刊名：問題與研究
作者：曾憲郎 引用關係／簡文政 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chin, Shannon／Jane, Wen-jhan
出版日期：2002
卷期：41:4
頁次：頁115-138
主題關鍵詞：政治景氣循環；內閣制；最適控制理論；最適控制路徑；不確定因素；次最適；Political business cycle；PBC；Parliamentarian system；The optimal control theory；The optimal control path；Uncertain factor；Sub-optimal
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:9
  • 點閱點閱:193
　　　　　本文所探討的重點是以Nordhaus(1975)的模型為出發，來分析內閣制政治景氣循環。由Nordhaus模型的假設，引進不確定因素Ω(t)，以動態最適控制的方法來求得內閣制下失業率的萬適控制路徑u*(t)，並且將兩者的結論作比較，解釋其經濟意涵。內閣制下的政治景氣循環會比總統制下(Nordhaus)的政治景氣循環具有較高的選舉頻率、較低的振幅。此外，就社會福利的觀點來看，對於選民面對兩種類型的政治景氣循環時，其福利變化的優劣，乃是取決於選民的偏好。
　　　　　Based upon Nordhaus' model, we can analyze the political business cycle (PBC) of a parliamentarian system. In this paper, by adding the uncertainty factor to Nordhaus' assumptions, we can obtain the unempolyment rate of optimal control path by using the dyanimic optimal control theory. Comparing these two results with Nordhaus' original findings, the model of political business cycle of parliamentarian system has higher elective frequency and lower amplitude in the unemployment rate of optimal control path than that of president system. From the social welfare point of view, which is better is decided by voter preference when voters face these two types of PBC. The article also uses a similar model to analyze the PBC during the period of New Economy and Great Depression. By using the concept of sub-optimal policy, we can determine the government's unemployment rate of optimal control path.
期刊論文
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3.Rogoff, Kenneth(1990)。Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles。American Economic Review，80(1)，21-36。  new window
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11.Nordhaus, William D.(1975)。The Political Business Cycle。The Review of Economic Studies，42(2)，169-190。  new window
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14.Kane, Edward J.(1980)。Politics and Fed policymaking: the more things change the more they remain the same。Journal of Monetary Economics，6，199-211。  new window
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18.Keil, M. W.(1988)。Is the Political Business Cycle Really Dead?。Southern Economic Journal，55，86-99。  new window
19.Price, S.(1997)。Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey。Pubic Choice，92，407-427。  new window
20.劉大年(1996)。美國經濟與總統大選。美歐月刊，11(2)，122-133。  延伸查詢new window
21.Toma, M. J.(1982)。Inflationary Bias of the Federal Reserve System: A Bureaucratic Perspective。Journal of Monetary Economics，10，163-190。  new window
22.Stigler, G. J.(1973)。General Economic Conditions and National Elections。The American Economic Review，63(2)，160-167。  new window
23.Shughart, W. F.、Tollison, R.(1983)。Preliminary Evidence on the Use of Inputs by the Federal Reserve System。The American Economic Review，73(3)，291-304。  new window
24.Rosenberg, J.(1992)。Rationality and the political business cycle: The case of local government。Public Choice，73，71-81。  new window
25.Pierce, James L.(1978)。The Myth of Congressional Supervision of Monetary Policy。Journal of Monetary Economics，4，363-370。  new window
26.Laney, L. O.、Willett, T. D.(1983)。Presidential Politics, Budget Deficits and Monetary Policy in the United States; 1960-1976。Public Choice，40，53-69。  new window
27.Haynes, S. E.、Stone, J. A.(1990)。Political Models of the Business Cycle Should be Reviewed。Economic Inquiry，28，442-465。  new window
28.Hayes, K.、Wood, L.(1995)。Utility Maximizing Bureaucrates: The Bureaucrat's Point of View。Public Choice，82，69-83。  new window
29.Haynes, S. E.(1995)。Electoral and Partisan Cycles between US Economic Performance and Presidential Popularity。Applied Economics，27，95-105。  new window
30.Gartner, M.(1996)。Political Business Cycles When Real Activity is Persistent。Journal of Macroeconomics，18(4)，679-692。  new window
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32.Detken, C.、Gartner, M.(1992)。Government, Trade Unions and Macroeconomy: An Expository Analysis of the Political Business Cycle。Public Choice，73，37-53。  new window
33.Chappell, H. W.(1990)。Economic Performance, Voting, and Political Support: A Unified Approach。The Review of Economics and Statistics，72，313-320。  new window
34.Cartwright, P. A.、Delorme, C. D., Jr.(1985)。The Unemployment-Inflation-Voter Unity Relationship in the Political Business Cycle: Some Evidence。Southern Economic Journal，51，898-905。  new window
35.Weintraub, R. E.(1978)。Congressional Supervision of Monetary Policy。Journal of Monetary Economics，4，345-362。  new window
36.Tabellini, G.、Alesina, A.(1990)。Voting on the Budget Deficit。The American Economic Review，80(1)，37-49。  new window
37.Luckett, D. G.、Potts, G. T.(1980)。Monetary Policy and Partisan Politics。Journal of Money, Credit and Banking，12(3)，540-546。  new window
38.Friedman, M.(1982)。Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice。Journal of Money, Credit and Banking，14(1)，98-118。  new window
39.Davidson, L. S.、Fratianni, M.、Von Hagen, J.(1992)。Testing the Satisficing Version of the Political Business Cycle, 1905-1984。Public Choice，73(1)，21-35。  new window
研究報告
1.Alesina, A.、Cohen, G. D.、Roubini, N.。Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies。沒有紀錄。  new window
圖書
1.Tufte, Edward R.(1978)。Political Control of the Economy。Princeton, N. J.：Princeton University Press。  new window
2.王嘉源、楊麗君(1992)。自滿年代。臺北：時報出版公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.Mullineux, A. W.(1984)。The Business Cycle after Keynes: A Contenporary Analysis。The Business Cycle after Keynes: A Contenporary Analysis。沒有紀錄。  new window
4.胡祖慶(1980)。政治經濟學導論。政治經濟學導論。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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