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題名:次級房貸風暴期間股市避險比例和交易量變化之研究
作者:許煒熙
作者(外文):Wei-his Hsu
校院名稱:雲林科技大學
系所名稱:管理研究所博士班
指導教授:楊踐為
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2010
主題關鍵詞:因果關係檢定DCC-GARCH次級房貸危機避險比例Granger Causality testDCC-GARCHHedge ratiosSubprime mortgage crisis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究的目的是探討美國、英國、加拿大、法國、德國、日本、南韓、香港及台灣的股票及期貨市場在2006年至2008年期間之避險比例變化情形,因為在美國次級房貸危機期間美國規模最大的獨立次級房貸業者新世紀金融(New Century Financial Corp.)聲請破產,致使次級貸款市場投資幾乎瀕臨破產邊椽,期間大約是在2007年4月間。我們運用Engle(2002)所發展動態條件相關假設的GARCH模型來探討在這一段期間之避險比例值是否有增加。實證結果顯示:美國、英國、香港、台灣的避險比例值確實有提高;而加拿大、法國、德國及日本的變化則不明顯;相對地、南韓於新世紀事件後之避險比例變化卻不增反減。
此外、本研究亦針對2006年至2008年次級房貸風暴期間各市場現貨和期貨交易量及避險比例作?邅k分析及因果關係檢定,首先由?邅k分析實證結果顯示約有一半的市場其交易量對避險比例變化是具有解釋性的;其次、由因果關係顯示大多數市場的交易量和避險比例互有因果關係。本研究可以作為上述國家的股票及期貨市場投資時風險管理之依據。
This paper examines the hedge ratios of America, British, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan stock futures markets. We want to examine the variance of hedge ratios during 2006-2008. And since the serious subprime mortgage crisis began in April of 2007 when the New Century Financial Crop. Collapsed, we want to employ the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) to investigate two type hedge ratios-the hedge ratios before April of 2007 and the hedge ratios after April of 2007. It is shown that the serious subprime mortgage crisis has led to a greater average hedge ratio of America, British, Hong Kong and Taiwan so far. And the hedge ratios of Canada, France, Germany and Japan do not have obvious changes. On the contrary, it is shown that the serious subprime mortgage crisis has led to a lower average hedge ratio in South Korea.
Besides, this paper executes a Regression Analysis and Granger Causality test to the hedge ration and the trade volume of the spot and futures stock markets. The results of the Regression Analysis show that the trade volume of the spot and futures can explain the variation of the hedge rations in about one half of the markets. And according the Granger Causality test it shows that most of the trade volumes and hedge ratios in spot and futures markets have obvious changes and causality. This finding is helpful to risk managers in stock futures market.
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