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題名：選票空間分布與席次偏差：第六、七屆立委選舉的考察
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：鄧志松 引用關係／吳親恩 引用關係／柯一榮
作者(外文)：Teng, Chih-sung／Wu, Chin-en／Ko, I-jung
出版日期：2010
卷期：17:1
頁次：頁21-53
主題關鍵詞：立委選舉；地理資訊系統；選票空間分布；選區重劃；選舉立方法則；Legislative election；GIS；Spatial distribution of votes；Districting；Cube law
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(0) 專書(1) 專書論文(2)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:51
本文摘要 第七屆立法委員選舉採用「單一選區兩票制」，國民黨獲票率為53.5%，獲得78.1% 席次，席次偏差甚大。本文關心的是，什麼因素造成這種偏差，與選票空間分布及「選區劃分」有何關係。為了回答這個問題，作者應用GIS（地理資訊系統）與空間計量方法，探討影響席次偏差的諸多因素，以第六、七屆立委各縣市選票資料進行實證分析。研究發現，席次偏差綠營不能歸咎選區劃分，造成此結果的主因是，兩陣營實力差距拉大，而政黨選區獲票率的標準差過小，因而擴大獲票率與席次比的差距。本文並以GIS圖示方法，個案探討選票集中與席次分配可能的關係。
Abstract In the 7th legislative election, Taiwan adopted the single-member district plurality, two-vote system. KMT garnered 53.5% of popular votes but received 78.1% of total seats. What factors account for the bias, and what is the role that spatial distribution of votes and districting plays? To answer these questions, we employ GIS and spatial econometrics to explore the determinants of disproportionality. Our empirical data comprised of the result of the 6th and 7th legislative election. We find that the vote share gap between parties and equally distributed votes across districts are the main contributing factors, while districting does not prove itself significant. On the other hand, we also use GIS to illustrate the relationship between vote concentration and seats allocation in several counties.
期刊論文
1.吳親恩、李鳳玉(20070600)。選舉制度與臺灣政黨族群議題立場的和緩。政治學報，43，71-99。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.謝相慶(19941100)。選舉結果不比例性的測量指數--方法論的評析。選舉研究，1(2)，131-161。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.林澤民、李鳳玉(20090600)。The Spatial Organization of Elections and the Cube Law。Issues & Studies，45(2)，61-98。new window  new window
4.Horiuchi, Yusaku、Saito, Jun(2003)。Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan。American Journal of Political Science，47(4)，669-682。  new window
5.Grofman, Bernard、Koetzle, William、Brunell, Thomas(1997)。An Integrated Perspective on the Three Potential Sources of Partisan Bias: Malapportionment, Turnout Differences and the Geographic Distribution of Party Vote Shares。Electoral Studies，16(4)，457-470。  new window
6.Rush, Mark E.(1994)。“Gerrymandering: Out of the Political Thicket and into the Quagmire.”。Political Science and Politics，27(4)，682-685。  new window
7.Barkan, Joel D.、Densham, Paul J.、Rushton, Gerard(2006)。Space Matters: Designing Better Electoral Systems for Emerging Democracies。American Journal of Political Science，50(4)，926-939。  new window
8.Cain, Bruce.(1985)。“Assessing the Partisan Effects of Redistricting.”。American Political Science Review，79(2)，320-333。  new window
9.Cranor, John D., Gary L. Crawley, and Raymond H. Scheele.(1989)。“The Anatomy of a Gerrymander.”。American Journal of Political Science，33(1)，222-239。  new window
10.Forest, Benjamin.(2005)。“The Changing Demographic, Legal, and Technological Contexts of Political Representation.”。Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the UnitedStates of America，102(43)，15331-15336。  new window
學位論文
1.蕭怡靖(2009)。單一選區兩票制下台灣選民之投票行為：2008年立法委員選舉的多層分析(博士論文)。國立政治大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.周宛蓉(2009)。台灣國會選制改革對政黨競爭型態的影響：邁向地方型或全國化的選舉競爭(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Reilly, Benjamin, and Andrew Reynolds.(1999)。Electoral System and Conflict in Divided Societies。Electoral System and Conflict in Divided Societies。Washington, DC：National Academies Press。  new window
2.Cox, Gary W.(1997)。Making Votes Count。Cambridge。  new window
3.Farrell, David M.(2001)。Electoral Systems: A Comparative Introduction。New York：Palgrave。  new window
4.Gudgin, Graham、Taylor, Peter J.(1979)。Seats, Votes, and the Spatial Organization of Elections。London：Pion。  new window
5.Haining, Robert(2003)。Spatial Data Analysis: Theory and Practice。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
6.Lijphard, Arend、Aitkin, Don(1994)。Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-seven Democracies, 1945-1990。Oxford University Press。  new window
7.Gallagher, Michael, and Paul Mitchell.(2005)。“Introduction to Electoral Systems.”。The Politics of Electoral Systems。Oxford。  new window
圖書論文
1.Lijphart, Arend(2002)。The Wave of Power-Sharing Democracy。The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy。Oxford University Press。  new window
2.Horowitz, Donald L.(2002)。Constitutional Design: Proposals versus Processes。The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy。Oxford University Press。  new window
3.Shugart, Matthew Soberg、Wattenberg, Martin P.(2001)。Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: A Definition and Typology。Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?。Oxford University Press。  new window
4.蔡佳泓、王鼎銘、林超琦(2008)。選制變遷對政黨體系之影響評估：變異量結構模型之探討。如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討。台北：五南。  延伸查詢new window
5.鄧志松、吳親恩、柯一榮(2008)。立委選舉地盤估計：GIS 與空間分析的應用。如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討。台北：五南。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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